Italy’s Population Set to Shrink by 4 Million by 2050

Italy’s population is projected to fall by almost 4 million by 2050, raising concerns over the country’s economy and welfare system as its population continues to age. The national statistics agency ISTAT said the population could decline from 58.9 million in early 2025 to around 55 million by 2050, before falling further to 45.8 million by 2080.

Italy’s declining birth rate is a major factor behind the demographic trend. Births fell to about 355,000 in 2025, the lowest level since the country’s unification in 1861. ISTAT expects annual births to remain broadly stable until 2030 before declining to around 335,000 by 2050, while annual deaths could peak at 869,000 in 2058.

The ageing population is expected to put increasing pressure on Italy’s workforce, pensions and welfare services. The share of people aged 65 and above is projected to rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050, while the working-age population could fall from 63.4% to 55.3%. Southern Italy is expected to experience the sharpest decline, with its population forecast to fall from 19.7 million to 16.7 million by 2050.

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