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Italy’s Population Set to Shrink by 4 Million by 2050

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Italy’s population is projected to fall by almost 4 million by 2050, raising concerns over the country’s economy and welfare system as its population continues to age. The national statistics agency ISTAT said the population could decline from 58.9 million in early 2025 to around 55 million by 2050, before falling further to 45.8 million by 2080.

Italy’s declining birth rate is a major factor behind the demographic trend. Births fell to about 355,000 in 2025, the lowest level since the country’s unification in 1861. ISTAT expects annual births to remain broadly stable until 2030 before declining to around 335,000 by 2050, while annual deaths could peak at 869,000 in 2058.

The ageing population is expected to put increasing pressure on Italy’s workforce, pensions and welfare services. The share of people aged 65 and above is projected to rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050, while the working-age population could fall from 63.4% to 55.3%. Southern Italy is expected to experience the sharpest decline, with its population forecast to fall from 19.7 million to 16.7 million by 2050.

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Germany’s Pension Reform Aims to Ease Future Burden on Young Workers

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Germany has proposed major pension reforms to address the financial strain of its ageing population and ease the long-term burden on younger workers. The plan includes creating a Swedish-style pension fund with mandatory contributions from employers and employees, while gradually increasing the retirement age from 67 in the early 2030s to around 70 by the 2090s. The reforms come as millions of baby boomers approach retirement, placing growing pressure on the country’s pension system.

Experts say the changes could improve the sustainability of Germany’s retirement system over time, but younger generations will continue to shoulder much of the financial burden during the transition. Analysts also note that the traditional pay-as-you-go pension model will remain in place, meaning demographic challenges and low birth rates will continue to impact future workers.

Beyond pensions, younger Germans face rising living costs, expensive housing and weaker wage growth compared with previous generations. Home ownership among people in their 30s has declined significantly over the past three decades, while many millennials have entered the workforce during periods of economic uncertainty. Economists warn that wealth inequality may increasingly depend not only on age, but also on whether younger people inherit assets or rely solely on their incomes.

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Germany Faces Sharp Population Decline and Rapid Ageing, Says Statistics Office

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Germany’s population is projected to shrink significantly over the coming decades, with the national statistics office warning that the country could lose nearly 10 million people by 2070. As the large baby boomer generation ages, Germany is expected to have one in four citizens over the age of 67 within the next decade. By 2038, around 21 million residents—27% of the population—will be of pension age.

This rapid demographic shift is worsening labour shortages across Europe’s largest economy, with businesses increasingly struggling to find workers. The trend is also fuelling political tensions, as debates over immigration intensify and support grows for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has surged in many opinion polls amid concerns about social and economic pressures.

Germany’s welfare system is expected to come under mounting strain, with the ratio of pensioners to workers projected to rise sharply. Currently, there are 33 retirees for every 100 working-age individuals, but in the worst-case scenario that figure could climb to 61 by 2070—leaving fewer than two workers contributing for each pension recipient. Only two out of 27 scenarios envision population growth, and both rely on higher immigration and increased birth rates.

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