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Italy’s population is projected to fall by almost 4 million by 2050, raising concerns over the country’s economy and welfare system as its population continues to age. The national statistics agency ISTAT said the population could decline from 58.9 million in early 2025 to around 55 million by 2050, before falling further to 45.8 million by 2080.

Italy’s declining birth rate is a major factor behind the demographic trend. Births fell to about 355,000 in 2025, the lowest level since the country’s unification in 1861. ISTAT expects annual births to remain broadly stable until 2030 before declining to around 335,000 by 2050, while annual deaths could peak at 869,000 in 2058.

The ageing population is expected to put increasing pressure on Italy’s workforce, pensions and welfare services. The share of people aged 65 and above is projected to rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050, while the working-age population could fall from 63.4% to 55.3%. Southern Italy is expected to experience the sharpest decline, with its population forecast to fall from 19.7 million to 16.7 million by 2050.

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Facing a severe demographic decline worsened by Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine is funding a programme that allows serving soldiers to freeze sperm and eggs free of charge. Introduced after private clinics began offering cryopreservation in 2022, the scheme was later regulated and financed by the state to help troops preserve the chance of having children if they are injured or killed. Lawmakers say the policy is both a personal safeguard for soldiers’ families and a small step toward protecting the nation’s future population.

The war has intensified an already serious crisis: large numbers of young men have been killed at the front, while millions—mostly women—have left the country as refugees. Clinics in Kyiv report that pregnancies have dropped sharply since the invasion, with stress, displacement and constant missile and drone attacks causing many couples to postpone having children. Officials argue that preserving fertility for military families is vital as Ukraine struggles with long-term population loss.

The programme has not been without controversy. Early rules required sperm samples to be destroyed if a donor died, prompting public outrage after widows were denied the right to use their husbands’ frozen material. Amendments now allow samples to be kept for several years after death with prior consent, though families still report legal and bureaucratic hurdles. Despite these challenges, supporters say open discussion of fertility and wider participation by soldiers could help ensure that the children of those killed in the war still have a chance to be born in the country their parents died defending.

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Germany’s population is projected to shrink significantly over the coming decades, with the national statistics office warning that the country could lose nearly 10 million people by 2070. As the large baby boomer generation ages, Germany is expected to have one in four citizens over the age of 67 within the next decade. By 2038, around 21 million residents—27% of the population—will be of pension age.

This rapid demographic shift is worsening labour shortages across Europe’s largest economy, with businesses increasingly struggling to find workers. The trend is also fuelling political tensions, as debates over immigration intensify and support grows for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has surged in many opinion polls amid concerns about social and economic pressures.

Germany’s welfare system is expected to come under mounting strain, with the ratio of pensioners to workers projected to rise sharply. Currently, there are 33 retirees for every 100 working-age individuals, but in the worst-case scenario that figure could climb to 61 by 2070—leaving fewer than two workers contributing for each pension recipient. Only two out of 27 scenarios envision population growth, and both rely on higher immigration and increased birth rates.

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