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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has accused Russia of aiding migrants in entering Finland illegally, alleging that some have received assistance from Russian border guards. The number of unauthorized crossings has increased this week, with around 89 incidents recorded in two days, compared to 91 in the preceding four months. Finnish officials reveal that migrants, including individuals from Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, are arriving legally in Russia but lack authorization to enter Finland, an EU member state.

Colonel Matti Pitkaniitty of the Finnish border guard noted a change in Russian policy, asserting that Russian guards traditionally prevented people without proper documents from reaching the Finnish border. The migrants are exploiting an agreement allowing cycling across the border, prompting Finland to recently ban bicycle crossings. Most activity is concentrated around the Nuijamaa and Vaalimaa border crossings in south-eastern Finland. Prime Minister Orpo claimed that Russian authorities are facilitating these illegal crossings, emphasizing the assistance provided by border guards.

In 2021, a significant number of migrants from the Middle East and Africa entered EU member states Poland and Lithuania by flying to Belarus, a close Russian ally. The EU accused Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko of using migration as a tool of “hybrid warfare” to destabilize the bloc. Colonel Pitkaniitty, while acknowledging the manageable current numbers, stated that Finnish authorities are prepared to react if crossings increase.

Interior Minister Mari Rantanen announced plans to enhance border security, emphasizing the government’s commitment to addressing the situation. Colonel Pitkaniitty noted that the route into the EU via Russia is considered safer than other options, such as crossing the Mediterranean by sea. He expressed concern that word of this route’s safety might attract more migrants, potentially leading to a rapid increase in numbers, emphasizing the unpredictability of when the opportunity might end.

Picture Courtesy: Google/images are subject to copyright

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Poland has become increasingly cautious of its neighbor Belarus due to the possibility of Russian Wagner group mercenaries relocating there as part of a deal to end their mutiny. In response, Poland has fortified its border with miles of fencing, thermal cameras, and spotlights, which were initially installed after Belarus encouraged migrants to cross into Poland.

Poland is deploying extra officers as reinforcements ahead of the NATO summit, expressing concerns that the Wagner forces could instigate further trouble. The unpredictability of Belarus is seen as the biggest threat, with uncertainties surrounding the motives and preparations of the Wagner group. Despite the intended disbandment and exile of the mercenaries to Belarus, there are indications that the group is still operating within Russia.

Online contacts with Wagner revealed that recruitment was ongoing, and detailed instructions were provided to find the mercenaries’ training camp in southern Russia. However, the whereabouts and future plans of the Wagner group remain unclear. While some Belarusians express concerns about the group’s potential arrival, others see their recent mutiny as a sign of weakness within the Kremlin, fueling hopes for change.

There are doubts that Wagner will relocate to Belarus in large numbers or that their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would settle there due to potential scrutiny from the Russian FSB security service. Polish worries and warnings about Wagner’s presence in Belarus could be influenced by domestic politics, with some suggesting it as a political tool to enhance the government’s security credentials ahead of upcoming elections.

The situation surrounding the Wagner mutineers remains shrouded in mystery, leading Poland to maintain heightened border patrols and surveillance.

Picture Courtesy: Google/images are subject to copyright