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Lukashenko Set for Seventh Term as Belarus Holds Presidential Election

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Belarus is set for a presidential election on Sunday, with five candidates appearing on the ballot. However, Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled for 31 years, is assured of victory in what the exiled opposition has labeled a sham election. Opposition leaders have urged voters to reject all candidates as Lukashenko, 70, claims he is too focused on governance to campaign. Critics argue the election lacks genuine competition, as independent media is banned, and around 1,250 political prisoners remain detained, according to human rights groups.

Lukashenko’s tenure has been marked by protests and international condemnation, especially after mass demonstrations against alleged election fraud in 2020. Security forces cracked down on dissent, jailing opposition leaders or forcing them into exile. While recent prisoner releases suggest an attempt to mend ties with the West, opposition figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya say these moves are strategic, aiming to secure sanctions relief amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko allowed Belarus to serve as a launchpad for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Analysts suggest that a potential end to the war could open opportunities for Lukashenko to balance relations between Russia and the West, as he has done in the past. However, exiled opposition leaders, including Ivan Kravtsov, admit to struggling to remain relevant as Belarusians prioritize survival over politics.

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Polish security finds cabinet meeting room bugged

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Special services in Poland uncovered and removed listening devices in a room where cabinet ministers were scheduled to convene. The regular cabinet meeting, typically held in Warsaw, was relocated to Katowice due to the attendance of several ministers, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk, at an economic conference there.

The increased spying activity in Poland is attributed to its role as a hub for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in 2022. The State Protection Service, in collaboration with the Internal Security Agency, detected and dismantled the eavesdropping devices during a routine security sweep of the room. The Internal Security Agency is currently investigating the matter further.

Despite the discovery, the cabinet meeting proceeded as planned in the building. A spokesperson for the Silesia regional authorities suggested that the device may have been part of the room’s old communication system.

In a separate development, a Polish judge sought asylum in Belarus, citing concerns over Poland’s policies towards Belarus and Russia. The judge’s actions have raised suspicions of espionage, particularly as he was due to preside over cases involving security clearance for NATO-related information.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski condemned the judge’s actions, referring to him as a traitor. Prime Minister Tusk has called for a meeting of the Secret Services College to discuss potential Russian and Belarusian influence in Polish politics. He emphasized concerns about the judge’s long-standing relationship with Belarusian authorities and its implications for national security.

This incident comes after the previous year’s arrest of several members of an alleged Russian spy network in Poland, accused of planning sabotage near the Ukrainian border.

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Finland Alleges Russia’s Involvement in Facilitating Unauthorized Migrant Crossings

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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has accused Russia of aiding migrants in entering Finland illegally, alleging that some have received assistance from Russian border guards. The number of unauthorized crossings has increased this week, with around 89 incidents recorded in two days, compared to 91 in the preceding four months. Finnish officials reveal that migrants, including individuals from Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, are arriving legally in Russia but lack authorization to enter Finland, an EU member state.

Colonel Matti Pitkaniitty of the Finnish border guard noted a change in Russian policy, asserting that Russian guards traditionally prevented people without proper documents from reaching the Finnish border. The migrants are exploiting an agreement allowing cycling across the border, prompting Finland to recently ban bicycle crossings. Most activity is concentrated around the Nuijamaa and Vaalimaa border crossings in south-eastern Finland. Prime Minister Orpo claimed that Russian authorities are facilitating these illegal crossings, emphasizing the assistance provided by border guards.

In 2021, a significant number of migrants from the Middle East and Africa entered EU member states Poland and Lithuania by flying to Belarus, a close Russian ally. The EU accused Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko of using migration as a tool of “hybrid warfare” to destabilize the bloc. Colonel Pitkaniitty, while acknowledging the manageable current numbers, stated that Finnish authorities are prepared to react if crossings increase.

Interior Minister Mari Rantanen announced plans to enhance border security, emphasizing the government’s commitment to addressing the situation. Colonel Pitkaniitty noted that the route into the EU via Russia is considered safer than other options, such as crossing the Mediterranean by sea. He expressed concern that word of this route’s safety might attract more migrants, potentially leading to a rapid increase in numbers, emphasizing the unpredictability of when the opportunity might end.

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Poland to Deploy Approximately 10,000 Troops to Belarus Border

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Amid growing concerns about the presence of Wagner forces in the region, Poland is making preparations to deploy approximately 10,000 troops to its eastern border with Belarus. The Wagner troops, affiliated with Russia and stationed in Belarus, were reportedly involved in a brief rebellion. Poland’s Defense Minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, revealed that out of the total troop count, 4,000 soldiers will directly support border guards, while the remaining 6,000 will be in reserve.

Blaszczak cited alleged instances of Polish airspace violations by Belarusian military aircraft as a justification for the deployment. Belarus dismissed these accusations, labeling them as unfounded. Blaszczak emphasized the significance of such airspace violations and termed them a provocative act.

Blaszczak further asserted that events in Belarus are closely coordinated with Russia’s actions. Additionally, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu discussed plans to bolster Russian forces along its western borders, attributing the decision to increased militarization in Poland.

Poland has recently raised concerns about Wagner forces within Belarus. Notably, heightened activity has been observed in the Suwalki gap, a narrow land strip between Poland and Lithuania. Wagner forces appear to be moving in that direction, possibly to exert pressure on NATO and EU member states. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki even warned about the possibility of Wagner fighters disguising themselves as migrants to cross the border.

Lithuania, another neighboring country of Belarus, has also fortified its borders, citing the threat posed by Wagner fighters.

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Prigozhin: Wagner Shifts Focus to Africa and Belarus, Pauses Fighter Recruitment

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Head of Wagner Mercenary Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced in an audio message released by a Wagner-linked Telegram account that the group will continue its operations in Africa and Belarus but is currently not actively recruiting new fighters. Prigozhin stated that the majority of Wagner fighters are currently on leave due to a period of intense work. The group is in the process of determining its future objectives, which will be undertaken for the benefit of Russia.

While the group remains operational in Africa and maintains training centers in Belarus, Prigozhin did not provide specific details. Wagner is known for its presence in various African regions and its involvement in training Belarusian territorial defense forces. However, he emphasized that they do not plan to recruit new personnel at present. Nonetheless, if the country requires a new group to safeguard its interests, Wagner will initiate recruitment.

Prigozhin also mentioned that some fighters from the group have opted to transfer to other Russian power structures, a move that the group does not restrict. In June, Wagner fighters participated in a short-lived mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, and in the aftermath of the failed mutiny, President Vladimir Putin invited non-participating Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.

In recent developments, on Monday morning, four people were killed in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, following Russian missile strikes. A drone attack was also reported in Russia’s border region of Bryansk, with a police station being hit. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin accused Ukraine of the drone attack on the Russian capital, resulting in damage to two office blocks. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that war was returning to Russia, and attacks on Russian territory were a natural consequence of the ongoing conflict between the two countries.

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Heightened Alert: Polish Security Patrols Increase Vigilance at Belarus Border Amid Ukraine Conflict

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Poland has become increasingly cautious of its neighbor Belarus due to the possibility of Russian Wagner group mercenaries relocating there as part of a deal to end their mutiny. In response, Poland has fortified its border with miles of fencing, thermal cameras, and spotlights, which were initially installed after Belarus encouraged migrants to cross into Poland.

Poland is deploying extra officers as reinforcements ahead of the NATO summit, expressing concerns that the Wagner forces could instigate further trouble. The unpredictability of Belarus is seen as the biggest threat, with uncertainties surrounding the motives and preparations of the Wagner group. Despite the intended disbandment and exile of the mercenaries to Belarus, there are indications that the group is still operating within Russia.

Online contacts with Wagner revealed that recruitment was ongoing, and detailed instructions were provided to find the mercenaries’ training camp in southern Russia. However, the whereabouts and future plans of the Wagner group remain unclear. While some Belarusians express concerns about the group’s potential arrival, others see their recent mutiny as a sign of weakness within the Kremlin, fueling hopes for change.

There are doubts that Wagner will relocate to Belarus in large numbers or that their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would settle there due to potential scrutiny from the Russian FSB security service. Polish worries and warnings about Wagner’s presence in Belarus could be influenced by domestic politics, with some suggesting it as a political tool to enhance the government’s security credentials ahead of upcoming elections.

The situation surrounding the Wagner mutineers remains shrouded in mystery, leading Poland to maintain heightened border patrols and surveillance.

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Lukashenko claims Wagner leader Prigozhin is present in Russia

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Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has stated that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group and former participant in a brief armed rebellion in Russia, is currently in Russia and not in Belarus. Prigozhin’s whereabouts had been unknown after he was spotted in southern Russia during the mutiny.

However, as part of a negotiated agreement to resolve the situation, charges against Prigozhin were dropped, allowing him and his fighters to potentially relocate to Belarus. Lukashenko, who played a role in brokering the deal, initially claimed that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus when a private jet associated with him landed in Minsk on June 27.

However, Lukashenko recently informed reporters that Prigozhin is actually in St. Petersburg and not present in Belarus. Despite this, Lukashenko reiterated that the offer for Wagner fighters to station themselves in Belarus, a prospect raising concerns among neighboring NATO countries, remains open.

Lukashenko believes there is no risk to Belarus and does not anticipate Wagner fighters taking up arms against his country. The Wagner Group is a private mercenary army that has fought alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s mutiny involved Wagner mercenaries crossing the border into Russia from field camps in Ukraine and seizing control of certain security facilities in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. They then proceeded toward Moscow, leading to increased security measures implemented by the Kremlin in various regions, including the capital.

While Vladimir Putin accused the group of treason, the mutiny’s resolution resulted in Prigozhin receiving security assurances and the dropping of the Russian criminal case against Wagner. The fighters were given the option to sign regular army contracts, return home, or relocate to Belarus.

Lukashenko had previously stated that Wagner mercenaries were offered an abandoned military base if they chose to join their leader. Recent satellite imagery has shown the potential establishment of tents at a former military base near Minsk, but no concrete evidence of their occupation has been observed yet.

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Belarus leader welcomes Wagner boss Prigozhin into exile

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The leader of Russia’s 24-hour mutiny, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has arrived in Belarus after his Wagner mercenary group’s mutiny ended south of Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, claimed credit for arranging Prigozhin’s exile and stated that the Wagner mercenaries were offered an abandoned military base in Belarus if they wanted to join their leader.

As part of the agreement that ended the mutiny, Prigozhin has been promised security, and the Russian criminal case against Wagner has been dropped. The presence of Wagner in Belarus has raised concerns among neighboring NATO members, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, who fear possible sabotage and infiltration operations. NATO has expressed readiness to defend against any threat from Moscow or Minsk and plans to strengthen its defenses in countries bordering Belarus.

Russia has recently deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, stating that they would only be used if Russian territory was threatened. There are mixed reactions among the Belarusian public, with some expressing concern about having someone like Prigozhin in their country. The mutiny has revealed weaknesses in the Kremlin’s control of security in Russia, but President Putin praised Russian security forces for stopping a potential civil war.

Putin also acknowledged that the state fully funded Prigozhin’s private army, which included expenditures on salaries, bonuses, and catering services. The events surrounding the mutiny remain somewhat unclear, with reports of downed military helicopters and conflicting claims about casualties. Lukashenko revealed a version of events in which he acted as an intermediary between Putin and Prigozhin, suggesting that he could play a role in managing the mercenary forces in Africa.

Observers speculate that the crisis has weakened both Putin and Lukashenko, potentially leading to more repression in Belarus in the short term and uncertainty about Russia’s reliability as a pillar of support for Lukashenko in the long term.

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Vladimir Putin vows to hold accountable the leaders of the Wagner mutiny

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Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, has accused the leaders of the recent Wagner mutiny of seeking to create chaos and conflict within Russia. In a strongly-worded speech, Putin vowed to bring the organizers of the revolt to justice. However, he distinguished the regular Wagner troops as “patriots” and provided them with options to join the army, go to Belarus, or return home. Putin did not specifically mention Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, who had previously denied any involvement in attempting to overthrow Putin’s regime.

Wagner is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. The mutiny, which was short-lived, involved Wagner fighters seizing a major Russian city and advancing towards Moscow in a convoy of military vehicles. Prigozhin claimed that the revolt was in response to government plans to take direct control of Wagner, citing concerns over mistakes made by defense officials during the war with Ukraine. He insisted that Wagner had always acted in Russia’s interests.

Prigozhin’s comments were his first public statements since reaching a deal to end the mutiny, reportedly involving him going to Belarus with dropped criminal charges. However, Russian state media reported that he remains under investigation. Putin emphasized in his address to the Russian people that the organizers of the march on Moscow would face justice and criticized Prigozhin for betraying Russia. He used the speech to assert his authority and counter the perception of a weak response to the mutiny.

Putin accused the West of wanting Russians to turn against each other, although US President Joe Biden denied any involvement by the US or its allies in the rebellion. Putin claimed that his handling of the crisis prevented a catastrophe, but many Russians witnessed events differently and may not be convinced by his statements. He reiterated his promise to allow Wagner troops who did not engage in violence against fellow Russians to leave for Belarus or sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense or other military and law enforcement structures. Putin credited the unity of Russian society and thanked Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko for his role in peacefully resolving the situation.

The contrast between Putin’s portrayal of a united country and the scenes in Rostov, where locals welcomed and embraced the Wagner fighters, led Putin to suggest that the mercenaries had been deceived and used. The rebellion occurred after months of tensions between Wagner and Russia’s military leadership. The situation escalated when Wagner mercenaries crossed the Ukrainian border and took control of the regional military command in Rostov-on-Don, while a column of military vehicles headed towards Moscow. Prigozhin claimed that the “march of justice” exposed serious security problems across the country and mentioned Lukashenko’s involvement in brokering an agreement to end the mutiny. He expressed regret for the deaths of Russian troops during the conflict but justified their actions as self-defense.

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Belarus, Ukraine, Russia activists win Nobel Peace Prize

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The Nobel Peace Prize has been given to a jailed activist from Belarus as well as two organisations from Russia and Ukraine for promoting democracy and human rights. As a rebuke to two authoritarian governments, the choice to honour Ales Bialiatsky, Russia’s Memorial, and the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties.

In December of last year, Russia forcibly closed Memorial in advance of Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Alexander Lukashenko protests led to the imprisonment of Bialiatsky. The CCL of Ukraine has kept tabs on political repression and atrocities committed in regions of the nation that Russia has invaded or annexed.

All three had made “an excellent effort to expose war crimes, human rights abuses, and the misuse of power,” according to Berit Reiss-Andersen, head of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, who spoke to reporters.

She responded that the Nobel prize was always given “for something and to somebody and not against anyone” when asked if the committee was making a statement to Russia’s president on the occasion of his 70th birthday.

Belarus’s long-time ruler is a close ally of President Putin. After a re-election in 2020 that was widely condemned as rigged, he brutally cracked down on protesters and then allowed Russian forces to use his country as a launchpad in its war against Ukraine.

Ales Bialiatsky, 60, established the civil rights organisation Viasna, which is Belarusian for spring, in 1996, two years after Mr. Lukashenko took office. He was first imprisoned in 2011, and last year, he was again incarcerated without being given a reason. He is one of the 1,348 individuals that Viasna claims are being imprisoned as political prisoners in Belarus at the moment.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, an exiled opposition activist, hailed the Nobel committee for “recognising all Belarusians struggling for freedom and democracy,” and Natallia Pinchuk, Bialiatsky’s wife, said she was “overwhelmed with emotion.”

A spokesman for the Minsk foreign ministry claimed that Alfred Nobel was “turning in his grave” as a result of the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Bialiatsky.

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