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Italy’s emerging far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, has overtaken the League for the first time in a national opinion poll. The movement, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, secured 5.9% support, narrowly ahead of the League’s 5.8%, continuing a steady rise since its launch earlier this year.

Founded in February after Vannacci and several lawmakers split from the League, Futuro Nazionale aims to become the dominant force on Italy’s far right. Its growing popularity has added a new dynamic to the country’s political landscape and is drawing attention ahead of next year’s national election.

The party’s rise is creating challenges for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her ruling coalition. While Meloni’s Brothers of Italy remains the country’s most popular party with 27.8% support, questions remain over whether an alliance with Vannacci could emerge as Italy’s right-wing parties compete for influence.

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Former general Roberto Vannacci has created a significant political headache for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni with the rapid rise of his new far-right party, Futuro Nazionale. Launched just four months after Vannacci broke away from Meloni’s coalition ally, the League party, the movement has already attracted nearly 100,000 paying members and is polling at 4.6%. Accusing Meloni’s government of becoming a “fearful right” that has softened on Brussels, crime, and immigration, Vannacci’s rapid ascent presents Meloni with a difficult dilemma ahead of next year’s tight election: alliance with a radical element or risking a fractured right-wing vote.

Vannacci, a 57-year-old former paratrooper and ex-defence attaché to Russia, initially shot to prominence by publishing a controversial book disparaging LGBTQ+ individuals, migrants, and feminists. Though suspended from active military service for bringing the army into disrepute, he was embraced by League leader Matteo Salvini, using that momentum to win a seat in the European Parliament in 2024. Now running his own anti-EU, pro-Russia movement, Vannacci is successfully siphoning support away from Salvini’s League, forcing mainstream right-wing leaders to consider adopting more radical stances to prevent being completely outmanoeuvred.

While no ruling coalition parties have officially proposed an alliance, Vannacci’s rise threatens to undermine Meloni’s efforts to recast her Brothers of Italy party as a mainstream, credible conservative force in Brussels and Washington. Futuro Nazionale has already poached eight lawmakers from government ranks and explicitly opposes unconditional financial and military aid to Ukraine. Mainstream coalition partners, such as Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia, remain deeply uncomfortable with Vannacci’s radical alignment with groups like Germany’s AfD, yet the rising poll numbers may eventually force a compromise to keep the centre-left out of power.

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Italians have begun voting on the third of four days of European elections taking place across 27 EU nations. Although these votes are for the next European Parliament, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hopes the outcome will strengthen her position in Italian politics. She has even encouraged voters to “just write Giorgia” on their ballots.

Most EU countries are voting on Sunday after several weeks of turmoil during which two European leaders and other politicians were physically attacked. On Friday evening, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was assaulted in the street in Copenhagen ahead of Sunday’s Danish vote. She sustained minor whiplash, according to her office, and a suspect has been detained.

European leaders have expressed their shock at the latest attack amid elections involving around 373 million European voters. Last month, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt and was only recently discharged from the hospital. Several German politicians have also been targeted.

While these elections are intended to be separate from national politics, the reality is often different, especially in Italy. Meloni, who leads the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), was appointed prime minister in 2022. She has taken the unusual step of putting her name at the top of her party’s ballot, despite having no plans to take a seat in the European Parliament.

Since becoming prime minister in 2022, Meloni has enjoyed steady poll ratings, helped by a fragmented centrist and left-wing opposition and the decline of her junior coalition partner, Matteo Salvini’s League party. To counter this trend, Salvini has shifted his party’s rhetoric further to the right. The League’s election posters, which criticize EU-backed initiatives like electric cars and tethered caps on plastic bottles, have drawn both ridicule and attention.

Salvini’s lead candidate, Roberto Vannacci, has also drawn attention. The army general, dismissed after self-publishing a book with homophobic and racist views, has doubled down on these views since becoming a League candidate. His messages are frequently amplified by the media, which could translate into votes for the League. If not, Salvini’s leadership could be in jeopardy.

Similarly, the left-wing Democratic Party (PD) leader Elly Schlein must match the 19% vote share from the 2019 elections to maintain her position. Further to the left, Ilaria Salis, a self-described antifascist activist detained in Hungary since 2023, is running on the Left/Greens platform.

These European elections hold significant importance. While the Netherlands voted on Thursday, with exit polls suggesting a tight race between a left-green alliance and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, other countries like Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Latvia, and Malta are voting across the weekend. Germany is voting on Sunday, with the center-right CDU/CSU expected to surpass Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is competing for second place with the Socialist party, trailing Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Macron, warning of the threat to Europe from the surge of the right, has called for a high turnout. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, recovering from surgery after an assassination attempt, has recently criticized Slovakia’s liberal opposition. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, opposing EU support for Ukraine, warned that Europe is nearing a point of no return in preventing conflict from spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Italy’s polls will be the last to close at 23:00 (21:00 GMT) on Sunday, with initial projections combining provisional results and estimates expected shortly after.

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