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EU Hopes Iceland Vote Could Boost Enlargement Support

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Iceland will hold a referendum on August 29 on whether to restart negotiations to join the European Union, a move EU officials believe could strengthen public support for further enlargement. Iceland already has access to the EU single market through the European Economic Area, and diplomats say its potential return to membership talks could improve the bloc’s image among sceptical voters.

A Gallup poll shows Icelanders evenly split, with 46% supporting and 46% opposing a restart of negotiations, while 8% remain undecided. EU diplomats see Iceland, a wealthy country with a population of around 400,000, as a relatively easy candidate to integrate and believe its possible accession could help build momentum for countries such as Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine.

If talks resume, fisheries are expected to be the most difficult issue because of the sector’s importance to Iceland’s economy and national identity. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said negotiations could take one to two years, with membership ultimately requiring a second referendum in Iceland and approval from all 27 EU member states.

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Swiss Government Rejects Stricter Neutrality Ahead of Referendum

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Switzerland’s government has rejected a proposal to introduce a stricter definition of neutrality into the country’s constitution ahead of a nationwide referendum on September 27. The initiative seeks to make Swiss neutrality permanent and armed, while preventing the country from joining military alliances.

Supporters, backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, argue that Switzerland’s neutrality has been weakened by its decision to impose sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and by closer cooperation with NATO on areas including military training. They also want Switzerland barred from taking part in conflicts between third countries or imposing sanctions on warring nations unless authorised by the United Nations.

Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis defended the government’s position, saying Switzerland remains neutral and does not need a more restrictive definition. He warned that the proposed constitutional changes could limit the country’s ability to cooperate with foreign partners during emerging security threats. A June Tamedia poll showed 34% support for the initiative, compared with 54% opposed.

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AfD Leads in Eastern Germany Ahead of Elections Despite Economic Concerns

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Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading polls in two eastern states ahead of September elections, despite economists warning that some of the party’s policies could hurt the regions’ already fragile economies. The AfD is polling at around 41% in Saxony-Anhalt and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where shrinking populations, labour shortages and lower incomes remain major challenges.

Experts say economic frustration and a lingering sense of being left behind since German reunification are important drivers of AfD support in the east. Both states have lost large numbers of young people, while ageing populations have contributed to severe skilled-worker shortages. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s GDP per capita is around 76% of Germany’s national average, while Saxony-Anhalt has the country’s highest proportion of pension-age residents.

Economists argue that AfD proposals, including reducing immigration, cutting state spending and potentially leaving the euro and European Union, could further weaken the region. A DIW Berlin study estimates Saxony-Anhalt could lose around €1,600 in annual income per person and 10,000 jobs under such policies. At the same time, local initiatives such as internationalising university programmes and attracting young talent are showing alternative ways for eastern Germany to address its labour and economic challenges.

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New Far-Right Party Surpasses Italy’s League in Polls

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Italy’s emerging far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, has overtaken the League for the first time in a national opinion poll. The movement, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, secured 5.9% support, narrowly ahead of the League’s 5.8%, continuing a steady rise since its launch earlier this year.

Founded in February after Vannacci and several lawmakers split from the League, Futuro Nazionale aims to become the dominant force on Italy’s far right. Its growing popularity has added a new dynamic to the country’s political landscape and is drawing attention ahead of next year’s national election.

The party’s rise is creating challenges for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her ruling coalition. While Meloni’s Brothers of Italy remains the country’s most popular party with 27.8% support, questions remain over whether an alliance with Vannacci could emerge as Italy’s right-wing parties compete for influence.

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Liberal and Populist Parties Neck-and-Neck in Slovenia’s Parliamentary Election

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Slovenia’s parliamentary election has resulted in a tight race between the liberal Freedom Movement (GS) led by Prime Minister Robert Golob and the right-leaning Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) headed by Janez Janša. Preliminary results show both camps nearly tied, with GS securing 29 seats and SDS close behind with 28 in the 90-seat parliament. Neither side appears likely to reach the 46 seats required for a majority, making smaller parties crucial in forming the next government.

With most votes counted, Golob’s bloc could gather around 40 seats with its partners, while Janša’s alliance may reach about 43. Golob told supporters that the mandate would be used to work toward a better future for citizens, while Janša questioned the vote counting process and warned he might push for a recount, claiming discrepancies in tens of thousands of votes.

Political analysts expect lengthy coalition negotiations as parties attempt to form a stable government. The outcome will shape Slovenia’s political direction, with Golob advocating liberal reforms and closer alignment with European policies, while Janša has promoted tax cuts for businesses and changes to spending on NGOs, welfare and media.

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Far-Right Security Strategy Tested in French City of Perpignan

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In the southern French city of Perpignan, far-right mayor Louis Aliot is campaigning for another term with a strong focus on law and order. Representing the National Rally, Aliot has made increased policing, surveillance cameras, and stricter enforcement key parts of his administration, presenting the city as a model for how his party would govern elsewhere.

Since taking office in 2020, the municipality has expanded its police force and intensified efforts against drug trafficking, leading to a sharp rise in reported cases and fines. Perpignan now has one of the highest ratios of municipal police per resident among major French cities. Supporters say these measures have improved safety and cleanliness, while critics argue the tougher policing has not solved deeper social and economic problems.

The city has become a symbolic battleground ahead of France’s municipal and future presidential elections, drawing attention from national political figures such as Jordan Bardella and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Meanwhile, Aliot’s leadership also faces scrutiny over rising municipal debt and a pending court appeal that could affect his political future.

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Hungary’s Tisza Party Leads Poll Ahead of Crucial Election

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Hungary’s opposition Tisza party has taken the lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary elections, according to a recent opinion poll. The survey showed Tisza gaining stronger voter support, signalling a significant challenge to Orban’s long-standing leadership. Another poll also indicated that the far-right Our Homeland party is likely to secure enough votes to enter parliament.

The 21 Institute poll found that Tisza secured 35% support among all voters, slightly increasing from the previous month, while Fidesz stood at 28%. Among decided voters, Tisza gained majority support, further strengthening its position ahead of the election. Meanwhile, the Our Homeland party crossed the minimum 5% vote threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Tisza is led by former government insider Peter Magyar, who has promised to tackle corruption, revive Hungary’s economy by unlocking frozen European Union funds, and strengthen ties with the EU and NATO. Despite Tisza’s growing support, the election outcome remains uncertain as a significant portion of voters is still undecided, making the upcoming vote highly competitive.

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EU Approves €90 Billion Loan for Ukraine, Sidesteps Use of Frozen Russian Assets

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European Union leaders have agreed to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan to support its military and economic needs over the next two years, following intense negotiations at a summit in Brussels. The funding will be backed by the EU’s common budget after member states failed to reach consensus on using frozen Russian assets. European Council President Antonio Costa said the deal demonstrated unity and commitment, calling it a delivery on promises made to Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had pushed for the use of around €200 billion in frozen Russian assets, most of which are held in Belgium. However, concerns over legal risks and liability-sharing prevented agreement, with Belgium seeking guarantees that other EU countries were unwilling to provide. While expressing gratitude for the loan, Zelensky stressed that Russian assets should remain immobilised and said the support would significantly strengthen Ukraine’s resilience at a critical time.

The loan offers a vital lifeline as Ukraine faces a looming cash crunch, with EU estimates suggesting the country needs €135 billion over the next two years and could begin running short of funds by April. European leaders said the agreement avoided division within the bloc, while Germany’s Chancellor said it sent a strong signal to Moscow. The decision comes amid renewed diplomatic efforts, including upcoming US-Russia talks and continued discussions between Ukrainian and US officials on security guarantees.

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Orban Meets Putin Again in Moscow, Defying EU and NATO Concerns

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has once again broken ranks with his EU and NATO partners by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, just days before US-Russia discussions on the Ukraine war. Orban, one of Putin’s closest allies in Europe, has consistently opposed European efforts to isolate Russia, and his latest visit drew sharp criticism from EU leaders. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Orban was acting without any European mandate, calling his diplomacy “nothing new.”

During the meeting, Putin thanked Orban for offering Budapest as a venue for a potential Trump-Putin summit and praised Hungary’s “balanced position” on Ukraine. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the visit secured guarantees for Russian oil and gas supplies and confirmed continued work on Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant. The atmosphere, however, appeared tense, with reports of awkward interactions and suggestions from Hungarian media of mistranslated remarks meant to paint a friendlier picture.

Orban, facing a tough parliamentary election next April, is seen as using these high-profile diplomatic moments to strengthen his political standing. He continues to champion Trump’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine while accusing EU leaders of warmongering. Despite pressure from Brussels to cut dependence on Russian energy by 2027, Hungary still relies heavily on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel. As Putin openly supports Orban’s re-election, both leaders appear aligned in leveraging the visit for political advantage.

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Southern Election Shifts Raise Doubts Over Meloni’s 2027 Prospects

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Italy’s recent southern regional election results have cast new uncertainty over Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s path to re-election in 2027. While the national outcome ended in a 3-3 split between the ruling conservative bloc and the centre-left, decisive victories for the opposition in Campania and Puglia signaled a growing challenge to Meloni’s dominance. Political leaders, including former PM Matteo Renzi, say these results prove there is a viable alternative to Meloni’s leadership.

The centre-left now believes a unified national alliance could flip around 20 key Senate seats in the south—seats that are crucial for forming a government under Italy’s mixed electoral system. Analysts warn that if these constituencies shift away from the conservatives, Italy could face a hung parliament. This has prompted Meloni’s coalition to consider revising the electoral law, potentially scrapping first-past-the-post seats to protect their hold on power.

Despite Meloni’s continued popularity and stability-focused governance, her allies remain weak in national polls, limiting her coalition’s overall strength. Meanwhile, the opposition faces its own challenge of uniting diverse factions—ranging from hard-left groups to pro-business centrists—into a single national project. Their first major test will be the 2026 referendum on Meloni’s justice reform, a vote that observers say could significantly impact her political momentum.

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