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Iceland will hold a referendum on August 29 on whether to restart negotiations to join the European Union, a move EU officials believe could strengthen public support for further enlargement. Iceland already has access to the EU single market through the European Economic Area, and diplomats say its potential return to membership talks could improve the bloc’s image among sceptical voters.

A Gallup poll shows Icelanders evenly split, with 46% supporting and 46% opposing a restart of negotiations, while 8% remain undecided. EU diplomats see Iceland, a wealthy country with a population of around 400,000, as a relatively easy candidate to integrate and believe its possible accession could help build momentum for countries such as Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine.

If talks resume, fisheries are expected to be the most difficult issue because of the sector’s importance to Iceland’s economy and national identity. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said negotiations could take one to two years, with membership ultimately requiring a second referendum in Iceland and approval from all 27 EU member states.

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European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said EU governments are not prepared to give Ukraine a concrete date for joining the bloc, despite Kyiv’s push for one as part of future security guarantees. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kallas said member states believe significant work remains before any timeline can be set, underlining that EU accession is a merit-based and lengthy process.

Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has been pressing for a 2027 membership target, with diplomats saying the date was floated in discussions involving the European Union, the United States, and Ukraine as part of a broader peace framework. However, many EU capitals view any fixed date as unrealistic while Ukraine is still aligning its laws and institutions with EU standards amid an ongoing war with Russia.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics echoed Kallas’ remarks, saying there was little appetite among EU leaders to commit to a date and expressing scepticism about the prospects of an imminent peace deal. He added that any special arrangement for Ukraine would also need to consider long-standing candidates such as Western Balkans states and Moldova, while noting that opposition from Hungary continues to slow the launch of detailed accession talks.

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