French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is awaiting a crucial court ruling on July 7 that will determine whether she can contest the 2027 presidential election. The appeal challenges a five-year ban from holding public office and a four-year prison sentence imposed in 2025 over the embezzlement of European Parliament funds. The verdict could either clear the way for Le Pen’s fourth presidential bid or force the National Rally (RN) to choose a new candidate.

If Le Pen remains barred, party president Jordan Bardella is widely expected to become the RN’s presidential nominee. Although party leaders insist the transition would be united, many members acknowledge that replacing Le Pen would mark the end of an era for the politician who transformed the National Rally into France’s largest parliamentary party. Bardella’s leadership has also sparked internal debate over the party’s future direction, particularly on economic policy.

Opinion polls suggest both Le Pen and Bardella would comfortably advance to the second round of the 2027 election, with recent surveys showing Bardella attracting even stronger first-round support than Le Pen. However, political analysts note that his relative lack of experience compared with Le Pen could become a key issue if he leads the far-right campaign, making the upcoming court ruling one of the most significant moments in French politics ahead of the presidential race.

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