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Macron’s Election Gamble: The Fate of French Democracy at Stake

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Two neighboring countries are approaching unexpected elections, with both governments expected to fall. Political tensions have strained relationships among families and friends. Despite significant issues in the UK election, the stakes are higher in France, where not just a government or leader is at risk, but the political system itself. Unlike the UK, which is at the end of a political cycle and where calling an early election was rational for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, France faces uncertainty.

President Macron called a snap election after a significant defeat by the far right in the European parliament elections. His aim was to regain a centrist majority in the National Assembly, but polls indicate the far-right National Rally (RN) remains ahead, with a left-wing alliance, led by France Unbowed (LFI), potentially coming second. The likely outcomes are either an RN majority or a hung parliament, both of which pose significant risks: a sovereign debt crisis, street violence, and institutional collapse.

Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez points out that France’s Fifth Republic was designed to handle crises, but the current instability and the president’s own confusion could lead to a breakdown of institutions. Across France, there is an awareness of the country’s precarious situation.

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, could become the next Prime Minister, adding to the political tension. Macron’s invocation of potential “civil war” and his attempt to use fear to drive voters towards the center is seen as dangerous and could incite hate and violence. The government is preparing for possible violent protests during the election rounds on June 30 and July 7. The far-left LFI’s support base in immigrant-heavy areas and its stance on Gaza further complicate matters.

Political instability could also affect the upcoming Olympic Games, which begin shortly after the election. Baverez draws a parallel between France’s current situation and the populist moments in the US and UK a decade ago, suggesting that France’s institutions and the euro previously shielded it from such upheaval. However, with the traditional method of managing social peace through public debt no longer viable, France now faces its own populist challenge.

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Emmanuel Macron’s government in crisis after migration bill defeat

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The French government, led by President Emmanuel Macron, is facing a crisis as opposition parties, spanning the political spectrum from far-right to far-left and moderate factions, joined forces to defeat a crucial immigration bill. The rejection occurred on Monday, with critics arguing that the proposed law was either too repressive (according to the left) or not stringent enough (according to the right).

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, known for his tough stance on immigration, offered to resign following the defeat, but President Macron declined his resignation. The government had asserted that the bill aimed to control immigration while enhancing the integration of migrants. The proposed legislation sought to streamline the deportation process for migrants sentenced to prison terms of five years or longer and impose stricter conditions on family reunification in France.

Despite Interior Minister Darmanin’s efforts to garner support for the bill, opposition MPs from various factions, including the National Rally (far-right), France Unbowed (far-left), Republicans (right-wing), and smaller parties, voted against it, leading to a 270-265 defeat for the government.

Before the vote, MP Arthur Delaporte of the Socialist party denounced the bill as “unjust, scandalous, and a threat to freedom.” President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party had lost its parliamentary majority in the June 2022 elections, making it challenging for the government to secure votes in parliament.

In response to the defeat, the government announced its intention to redraft the bill. Notably, the option used by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne to pass laws without a vote cannot be employed to advance this revised version.

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French march against antisemitism shakes up far right and far left

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In an unprecedented turn of events in Paris this weekend, a significant demonstration took place in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, drawing representatives from major political parties. Notably, the far right, including Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the National Rally, participated, while the far left, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed, boycotted the event, citing it as a gathering for supporters of the Gaza massacre.

This shift is symbolic, considering historical political dynamics in France. Traditionally, the far right was ostracized due to its perceived anti-Republican views, especially on Jewish issues. The far left, on the other hand, despite criticism, remained part of the broader political spectrum. However, the current scenario reflects a shake-up in the political landscape.

The contemporary far right in France, now labeled as “hard right” or “national right,” has shifted focus from past anti-Semitic stances to prioritize issues such as immigration, insecurity, and Islamism, aligning with some Jewish perspectives. Meanwhile, the far left interprets the Gaza conflict through an anti-colonial lens, emphasizing solidarity with the oppressed against perceived superpower aggression.

This unusual alignment sees a party with a history of Holocaust denial, like the National Rally, supporting French Jews openly. Conversely, a party built on human rights and equality, like France Unbowed, faces accusations of antisemitism for not condemning Hamas as a terrorist organization.

While nuances exist, the overall trend shows the National Rally under Marine Le Pen successfully integrating into the mainstream, while France Unbowed under Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be distancing itself. Opinion polls reinforce this, with Marine Le Pen leading in presidential election polls, while Mélenchon’s support has declined.

Serge Klarsfeld, a prominent figure in the fight against antisemitism in France, acknowledges the irony. He appreciates the far right’s departure from antisemitism, seeing it align with Republican values, yet expresses sadness over the far left’s perceived abandonment of efforts to combat antisemitism.

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