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ECB Should Brace for New Shocks, Including Russian Threats: Simkus

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European Central Bank policymaker and Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus said the ECB’s current policy stance is appropriate, with inflation at target and interest rates in a neutral zone, but warned that fresh shocks could disrupt this balance. Speaking to Reuters, Simkus highlighted persistent global uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of Russian military aggression in eastern Europe, alongside trade frictions and other external pressures.

Simkus stressed that the ECB must ensure its systems are resilient to such risks, including safeguarding cash distribution and payment infrastructure in case of heightened security threats. He noted that countries bordering Russia face unique challenges, ranging from cyberattacks to airspace incursions, and argued that central banks must remain operationally prepared. He also added that banks need to be ready for longer-term risks such as climate change.

On monetary policy, Simkus said interest rates are firmly on hold at the ECB’s February meeting, as modest inflation fluctuations around 2% are normal. However, he cautioned against signalling future moves, saying the next rate change could equally be a hike or a cut. Emphasising flexibility, he said the ECB should avoid overreacting to short-term data swings and instead focus on broader economic trends, as shocks tend to affect growth before feeding into inflation.

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Danish PM Visits Greenland After Trump Backs Down on Threats

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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen travelled to Greenland’s capital Nuuk to show support for the Greenlandic people after a turbulent week marked by US President Donald Trump’s threats to take control of the island, followed by a sudden diplomatic climbdown. Trump ruled out military action and tariffs, claiming a vague “framework of a future deal” on Greenland after talks with Nato chief Mark Rutte, though details remain unclear. Frederiksen said the situation remains serious and that Denmark would now pursue a diplomatic and political path.

The visit comes amid continued uncertainty over US intentions. While Trump has spoken of “total access” to Greenland for security purposes and hinted at deploying missile defence infrastructure, he has stopped short of explicitly calling for ownership. Danish and Greenlandic leaders have repeatedly stressed that sovereignty is a red line, even as they signal openness to cooperation on Arctic security within Nato. Frederiksen also held talks with Rutte in Brussels, where both sides agreed to strengthen deterrence and defence in the Arctic.

Despite the softened rhetoric from Washington, Greenlandic leaders remain cautious. Lawmakers say trust has been damaged by Trump’s remarks and insist that decisions over minerals and land rest solely with Greenland. Former Danish officials note a shift toward de-escalation but warn the situation remains fragile, with negotiations likely to focus narrowly on security. Danish officials have underlined that any future arrangements must stay within Nato frameworks, with no transfer of territory or mineral rights on the table.

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Denmark, NATO Move to Strengthen Arctic Security Amid Greenland Tensions

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Denmark and NATO have agreed on the need to enhance security in the Arctic following renewed tensions linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Greenland, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Friday. After talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Frederiksen stressed that defence and security in the Arctic are concerns for the entire alliance, not just countries in the region. Denmark and Greenland have firmly stated that Greenland’s sovereignty is not open for discussion, while remaining willing to engage in dialogue on other issues.

Trump said on Thursday that he had secured permanent U.S. access to Greenland following discussions with Rutte, comments that heightened attention on the strategic Arctic region. Rutte later noted that NATO allies would need to intensify efforts to counter growing challenges from Russia and China in the high north. Frederiksen echoed this view, saying NATO must increase its engagement, and Rutte confirmed he was working closely with Denmark to strengthen deterrence and defence measures.

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EU Pushes for Greater Independence, von der Leyen Says

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Wednesday that the EU must accelerate its drive for independence to protect itself in a rapidly changing world. She emphasized that while Europe prefers dialogue, it is ready to act with unity, urgency, and determination if necessary.

Von der Leyen highlighted that Europe needs its own tools of power, including a strong economy, a robust single market, technological innovation, and the capacity to defend itself. She stressed that these elements are crucial for the EU to navigate global challenges effectively.

She also reaffirmed the EU’s focus on Ukraine, while noting plans to strengthen security partnerships with the US and other allies in the Arctic region, underlining the importance of collaboration in a complex geopolitical landscape.

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Trump Tells Norway He No Longer Feels Bound to Pursue Only Peace

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U.S. President Donald Trump told Norway’s prime minister that he no longer feels obliged “to think purely of peace,” citing his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize, while again pressing his demand for U.S. control of Greenland. The remarks were made in a written response to a message from Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who had urged de-escalation and sought talks after Trump threatened tariffs on European allies over the issue.

In his message, Trump complained that Norway had not awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize despite what he described as his role in stopping multiple wars, and said he would instead focus on what is “good and proper” for the United States. Støre responded by reiterating that the Nobel Peace Prize is decided by an independent committee, not the Norwegian government. Trump has openly campaigned for the award, which was last given to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

Trump also questioned Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland, arguing it could not adequately protect the island and disputing its historical claims, despite longstanding treaties and U.S. recognition of Danish authority. He concluded by asserting that U.S. and global security depended on “complete and total control” of Greenland, again linking the issue to NATO burden-sharing and U.S. strategic interests.

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IMF Sees Global Economy Holding Firm Despite Trade and Geopolitical Shocks

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The International Monetary Fund’s upcoming growth forecasts are expected to show that the global economy remains resilient to trade disruptions, with overall performance still “fairly strong,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with Reuters. Speaking during a visit to Kyiv, Georgieva indicated the IMF could slightly raise its projections again, following a recent upgrade by the World Bank.

In its October outlook, the IMF lifted its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, citing a smaller-than-expected drag from U.S. tariffs, while keeping its 2026 estimate at 3.1%. Georgieva said the January update, due on January 19, would likely reinforce the message that trade shocks have not derailed global growth, even though risks remain tilted to the downside.

She cautioned that geopolitical tensions, rapid technological shifts and heavy investment in artificial intelligence pose potential threats if productivity gains fail to materialise. Georgieva also warned that many countries have not built sufficient financial buffers to handle future shocks, noting that the IMF is already running 50 lending programmes and may see demand rise if global conditions worsen.

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Nordic Countries Dismiss Trump’s Claims of Russian, Chinese Presence Near Greenland

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Nordic diplomats have rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that Russian and Chinese vessels are operating near Greenland, calling the assertions unfounded. According to a report by the Financial Times, two senior Nordic diplomats with access to NATO intelligence briefings said there have been no signs of Russian or Chinese ships or submarines in waters around Greenland in recent years. Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, while the White House and NATO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Diplomats cited by the FT said intelligence assessments do not support the narrative of heightened foreign naval activity near the island. One senior official was quoted as saying there were “no ships, no submarines,” while another dismissed claims that the waters around Greenland were “crawling” with Russian and Chinese vessels, noting that any such activity was instead concentrated on the Russian side of the Arctic. Vessel-tracking data from MarineTraffic and LSEG also showed no Chinese or Russian ship presence near Greenland.

Trump has repeatedly argued that the United States must control Greenland—an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark—to prevent Russia or China from gaining a foothold in the strategically located and resource-rich region. Denmark has disputed these claims, with Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen saying the portrayal of foreign ships and large Chinese investments near Nuuk was inaccurate. Greenland’s assembly has since moved up a meeting to discuss its response to U.S. statements, amid growing concern among the island’s 57,000 residents over renewed pressure from Washington.

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Denmark and Greenland Push Back Against Trump’s Greenland Takeover Remarks

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Denmark and Greenland have urged US President Donald Trump to stop making statements about taking over Greenland after he reiterated his interest in the Arctic island in a recent media interview. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said such remarks were unacceptable, stressing that the United States has no right to annex Greenland or any part of the Danish kingdom.

Trump said the US “needs Greenland” for defence purposes, comments that came shortly after he claimed Washington would run Venezuela following the capture of its president. The remarks sparked concern in Denmark that Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory, could face similar rhetoric or pressure. Frederiksen said the threats were inappropriate toward a close ally and ignored the clear stance of Greenland’s people that the territory is not for sale.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen also criticised Trump’s comments as disrespectful, particularly references linking Greenland to military intervention. Greenland’s strategic location and mineral resources have long drawn US interest, and Trump recently appointed a special envoy to the island. While Greenland has the right to seek independence, it remains economically reliant on Denmark, which has been working to strengthen ties with the island while increasing Arctic defence cooperation with the US.

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Ukraine, US Hold Christmas Day Talks to Advance Peace Deal

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he held a “very good” conversation on Christmas Day with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as negotiations toward a possible peace deal with Russia continued. Zelensky said the talks covered substantive aspects of the negotiations and generated new ideas aimed at achieving “real peace,” describing the engagement as constructive and timely. Senior Ukrainian officials, including Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, also participated in the discussions.

Zelensky said further talks were planned between Umerov and the US representatives, stressing the importance of seizing every opportunity to move closer to a settlement. The diplomatic push comes amid gradual progress in US-led peace efforts, including recent meetings between Ukrainian, Russian, and American negotiators. Zelensky has outlined a 20-point framework for ending the war, which includes troop withdrawals, security guarantees involving the US and Europe, and the creation of a demilitarized zone in parts of eastern Ukraine.

Despite ongoing negotiations, fighting has continued on the ground. Russia has intensified strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Odesa, causing power outages and civilian damage, while Ukrainian forces have conducted drone and sabotage operations against Russian military targets. Russian officials say they are reviewing Ukraine’s proposals, though President Vladimir Putin has reiterated demands that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk. International figures, including Pope Leo, used Christmas messages to call for an end to the violence and renewed diplomatic engagement.

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Gold Heads for Best Year Since 1979 as Crises and Central Bank Buying Fuel Rally

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Gold is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, with futures in New York surging nearly 71% in 2025. Prices have climbed from around $2,640 an ounce at the start of the year to above $4,500, driven by global uncertainty ranging from trade distortions and geopolitical conflicts to inflation risks and currency volatility. Analysts say investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven, echoing conditions last seen during the late-1970s energy crisis under former US president Jimmy Carter.

Expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar have further boosted gold’s appeal, as lower bond yields make non-yielding assets more attractive. Gold’s gains have far outpaced equities, with the S&P 500 up about 18% this year. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase expect prices to continue rising, forecasting gold could cross $5,000 an ounce in 2026 if current trends persist.

A key driver behind gold’s rally has been aggressive buying by central banks, led by China, as countries seek to reduce dependence on the US dollar and Treasury assets. Central banks have added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the past three years, well above historical averages. The surge has also lifted other precious metals, with silver, platinum and palladium posting sharp gains, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge in an increasingly uncertain global financial landscape.

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