Ukraine Russia War: Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has sparked fears it will spill over into Poland

Poland is holding its breath as Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on its doorstep. It is vulnerable on two fronts: the number of refugees entering the country is increasing, and a military base near its Ukrainian border has been attacked.

According to the latest UN figures, over 1.7 million Ukrainians have chosen to flee to Poland as a first responder in one of Europe’s largest refugee crises since World War Two. Some leave, but the majority choose to remain due to cultural, linguistic, or familial ties. As a result, the population of Warsaw, Poland’s capital, has increased by 15% in the last two weeks.

Alarm bells are also ringing in terms of security. Russia bombed a Ukrainian military base in Yavoriv, just 16 kilometres (10 miles) from the Polish border, over the weekend.

For years, Poland has warned the West that Russia was planning to redress the power balance in Europe in its favour. At the time, Polish leaders were dismissed as alarmists. But that is no longer the case. Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish Prime Minister, said on Monday that Ukrainian soldiers needed and deserved Western assistance. He insisted that they were fighting not only for their own liberties, but also for the liberties of their Eastern European neighbours. He also described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine as part of a calculated geopolitical strategy.

The Western defence alliance’s charter says an attack against one of its nations will be viewed as an attack against all. That would mean a face-off between two global nuclear powers – Russia and the US – something the West is keen to avoid. Moscow too, it hopes.

Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a high-profile political figure, told me that his country was not panicking, but that people were beginning to ask questions, particularly in light of Russia’s missile strike so close to the Polish border and Nato’s suggestion that Russia was planning chemical attacks. The mayor insisted that something urgent be done about the refugee crisis as well.

Mayor Trzaskowski has also urged the UK to “get rid of its red tape” and make it easier for Ukrainian refugees to enter the country.

Poland’s painful past, it could be argued, makes it fearful of the future. The arrival of Ukrainian refugees in this country has brought back memories of war and Soviet occupation. I met Kristina, a Polish pensioner, and her friends in Warsaw this week, who were busy making Ukrainian flag solidarity ribbons. “Kristina explained, “I’m too poor to give money and too old to hold a gun, so I do what I can for the refugees.” Partly because I am concerned about my own future.”

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