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Russia formally withdraws from the grain contract with Ukraine

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Russia has informed the United Nations, Turkey, and Ukraine that it will not extend a crucial grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the agreements had effectively ended on Monday. The deal permitted cargo ships to pass through the Black Sea from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. However, Russia stated that it would reconsider the agreement if certain conditions were met.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously expressed dissatisfaction with parts of the deal, claiming that the export of Russian food and fertilizers had not been fulfilled. He specifically mentioned that grain had not been supplied to poorer nations, which was a condition of the agreement. Russia also complained about Western sanctions limiting its agricultural exports and repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal.

On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry reiterated these concerns, accusing the West of “open sabotage” and prioritizing commercial interests over humanitarian goals. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his belief that Putin still wanted to continue the agreement and stated that they would discuss its renewal during their upcoming meeting.

The grain deal is significant because Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat, and barley. Following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian ports were blockaded, trapping 20 million tonnes of grain and causing a sharp increase in global food prices. The blockade also posed a threat to food supplies in Middle Eastern and African countries heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain.

Nikolay Gorbachev, the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, mentioned that alternative methods of exporting grain had been identified, including through Danube River ports. However, he acknowledged that these ports would be less efficient, leading to reduced grain exports and increased transportation costs.

Western leaders swiftly criticized Russia’s decision, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemning it as a “cynical move” and emphasizing the EU’s efforts to ensure food security for vulnerable populations.

Russia’s announcement coincided with Ukraine claiming responsibility for an attack on a bridge in Crimea that resulted in the deaths of two civilians. Peskov stated that Russia’s decision to let the deal expire was unrelated to the attack, as President Putin had already declared the position before the incident.

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Europe heatwave: Hot weather sweeps across southern Europe

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A scorching heatwave continues to affect several European countries, with temperatures expected to break records in the coming days. Parts of Spain, France, Greece, Croatia, Turkey, and Italy may experience temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F), with Italy potentially reaching up to 48°C (118.4°F), which could be the highest ever recorded in Europe, according to the European Space Agency. A red alert warning has been issued for 10 cities, including Florence and Rome. Last month was reported as the hottest June on record by the EU’s climate monitoring service Copernicus.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that extreme weather events resulting from climate change are becoming the new norm. While periods of intense heat are part of natural weather patterns, they are increasingly becoming more frequent, intense, and prolonged globally due to global warming.

The heatwave has impacted tourists in Europe, with visitors experiencing symptoms such as nausea and dizziness in Athens. Efforts have been made to provide information on air-conditioned places for people to seek relief from the heat. Tragically, a man in Italy died from heat-related causes, and several visitors, including a British man in Rome, have suffered from heatstroke.

Authorities are advising people to stay hydrated by drinking at least two liters of water per day and to avoid dehydrating beverages like coffee and alcohol. Tourists in Rome expressed surprise at the extreme heat and stated they were trying to avoid going out during the hottest hours of the day. Some individuals emphasized the need for collective action to address climate change, urging governments and individuals to take responsibility and make changes such as reducing plastic usage, limiting air conditioning, and using electric cars.

The current heatwave, named Cerberus after the mythical three-headed dog from Dante’s Inferno, is expected to continue intensifying in the coming days. Spain has already experienced temperatures reaching 45°C (113°F), and the European Space Agency has predicted potential temperatures of 48°C (118.4°F) in Sicily and Sardinia, which could be the hottest ever recorded in Europe.

Additionally, other regions outside Europe, including parts of Canada, the United States, India, and China, have also witnessed record-breaking temperatures this summer. Sea temperatures in the Atlantic have reached record highs, while Antarctic sea ice is at its lowest extent on record. Furthermore, the development of El Niño, a weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, is expected to contribute to rising temperatures by an average of 0.2°C, exacerbating the effects of climate change, which has already increased average temperatures worldwide by approximately 1.1°C.

To put the current heatwave in historical context, scientists can analyze air bubbles trapped in ancient Antarctic ice, which suggests that the first week of July was the hottest week in around 125,000 years. During the Eemian period, which occurred over a million years ago, temperatures were estimated to be significantly higher, resulting in hippos inhabiting the Thames and sea levels being approximately 5 meters (16.4 feet) higher.

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Scorching Heatwave Sweeps Southern Europe: Cerberus Brings Onslaught of High Temperatures

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A powerful heatwave is currently sweeping across southern Europe, leading to widespread discomfort and raising concerns about the wellbeing of residents and the resilience of infrastructure. Known as “Cerberus,” this extreme weather event is characterized by a relentless onslaught of high temperatures that are significantly surpassing the seasonal norms. Several countries in the region, including Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey, are experiencing the effects of this scorching heatwave.

The heatwave has prompted authorities to issue heat alerts and take precautionary measures to safeguard vulnerable individuals from the potentially dangerous consequences of extreme heat. Both residents and tourists are struggling to cope with the oppressive weather, seeking refuge and searching for ways to stay cool amid the soaring temperatures.

The persistent and intense nature of the heatwave has sparked concerns regarding its potential impacts on various aspects of life in the affected areas. Agriculture, in particular, is at risk due to the extreme heat’s detrimental effects on crops and livestock. Water resources, already strained by the prolonged dry spell, are further under pressure as demand for water increases during the heatwave. Additionally, the heightened risk of wildfires is a significant concern, as the combination of scorching temperatures and dry conditions provides ideal conditions for fire outbreaks.

In response to these challenges, authorities are closely monitoring the situation and implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the heatwave. Efforts are focused on providing adequate support to vulnerable populations, ensuring the availability of cooling centers, and implementing fire prevention strategies.

Overall, the Cerberus heatwave is posing significant challenges to southern European countries, requiring coordinated efforts to minimize its impact on public health, infrastructure, and the environment.

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NATO summit to witness G7’s unveiling of a comprehensive security plan for Ukraine

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During the NATO summit, the G7 nations are expected to approve a long-term security agreement with Ukraine. The agreement will encompass provisions for defense equipment, training, and intelligence sharing.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak emphasized that this agreement would send a strong message to Russian President Putin. The move comes after Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized NATO for not providing a timeline for Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. Sunak stated that the allies of Kyiv are reinforcing their formal arrangements to ensure long-term protection for Ukraine and prevent a repetition of the brutality it has faced from Russia.

The United Kingdom has played a leading role in this agreement, which involves G7 partners such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States. The details of the agreement are expected to be revealed during the summit.

US President Joe Biden has previously suggested a model similar to the US-Israel agreement, which entails providing Ukraine with $3.8 billion in military aid annually for ten years, but without an obligation to come to Ukraine’s aid during an attack. While NATO stated that Ukraine could join the alliance when conditions are met, Zelensky expressed frustration over the lack of a specific timeframe. Despite the absence of a timeline, diplomats pointed out that a clear path to membership has been established, with the application process shortened significantly.

The focus now shifts to the long-term security guarantees that NATO members will offer Ukraine as an alternative to immediate membership. The summit also saw the announcement of military packages for Ukraine, including the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, and the UK’s commitment to deliver combat and logistics vehicles to Ukraine.

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Turkey Supports Sweden’s NATO Accession

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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given his support to Sweden’s bid to join NATO, according to the alliance’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg. Erdogan has agreed to forward Sweden’s application to the Turkish parliament for ratification, ending months of Turkish opposition.

The decision comes after Sweden addressed Turkey’s security concerns by amending its constitution, changing laws, intensifying counter-terrorism efforts against the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), and resuming arms exports to Turkey. The announcement was made following discussions between Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The NATO chief hailed the agreement as a “historic step” but couldn’t provide a specific timeline for Sweden’s accession as it depended on the Turkish parliament. The United States and other NATO members have welcomed Turkey’s support and expressed readiness to work with both Turkey and Sweden to enhance defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.

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Swedish Court Sentences Kurdish Individual to Prison for Financing Terrorism Following Turkish Request for Action

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In Sweden, a Kurdish man has been sentenced to four-and-a-half years in prison for various crimes, including an attempt to finance terrorism. This is the first instance where Sweden’s updated anti-terrorism laws have been utilized in a case involving the Kurdish militant group PKK. Turkey has long urged Sweden to take action against Kurdish separatists. Sweden’s aspirations to join NATO have been delayed, primarily due to Turkey’s demand for the extradition of individuals it considers terrorists.

Ahead of a NATO summit, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is set to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Lithuania. Sweden is hopeful for NATO membership and has received support from President Joe Biden. The timing of the court case was emphasized by commentators, who noted that it conveyed a message to Ankara that Sweden was cracking down on the PKK.

The convicted Kurdish man, who has Turkish origins, will be deported after serving his sentence. The judge highlighted that Sweden’s NATO bid did not influence the court’s decision. Last month, Sweden strengthened its anti-terrorism laws to criminalize arranging meetings to provide financial or other assistance to banned groups. Critics raised concerns about potential impacts on freedom of speech.

The sentencing coincided with a significant meeting in Brussels involving the foreign ministers of Sweden, Turkey, and Finland, ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. Finland’s Foreign Minister expressed hopes for a swift announcement regarding Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey’s President has voiced reservations about Sweden’s bid, emphasizing the need for further action.

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Erdogan of Turkey poised for economic reversal and significant increase in interest rates

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Turkey is preparing to reverse some of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies as his new economic team takes action to tackle soaring inflation.

Just weeks after Erdogan’s re-election, interest rates are expected to undergo a significant increase from their current level of 8.5%. With inflation at nearly 40% and citizens grappling with a severe cost-of-living crisis, the urgency to address the situation is evident.

However, Erdogan has previously insisted on keeping interest rates low, despite economists advocating for their increase. The extent of the impending interest rate hike remains uncertain, with varying predictions from different experts, ranging from an 11.5-point increase to as high as 40%. Erdogan’s challenge stems from persistently high inflation and critically low reserves in the central bank, which have been depleted due to extensive efforts to support the Turkish lira.

In the past, the President dismissed three central bank governors in under two years when they attempted to adhere to orthodox policies. Having seen interest rates decline from 19% two years ago to 8.5% recently, Turkey now faces the prospect of another rise, further exacerbating its ongoing economic crisis. The dilemma lies in the fact that pursuing orthodox economic policies could negatively impact a significant portion of the population, which Erdogan may seek to avoid in light of local elections scheduled for next year. While Turkey experienced substantial economic growth during the initial years of Erdogan’s leadership, unconventional approaches blaming high inflation on borrowing costs and prioritizing economic stimulation have led to a drastic decline in the Turkish currency’s value and foreign investment.

The country now grapples with citizens attempting to transfer their foreign funds out of domestic banks. The appointment of Mehmet Simsek, a former banker and economist, as finance minister, and Hafize Gaye Erkan, Turkey’s first female central bank chief, signals Erdogan’s inclination towards a change in economic direction. Simsek has emphasized the necessity of returning to “rational ground” and compliance with international norms, while Erkan, a prominent figure on Wall Street, brings an external perspective to the role.

Erdogan maintained his stance on low interest rates during the election campaign, but shortly after his re-election, he hinted at a shift. It is expected that Erkan will have to implement immediate and substantial rate hikes rather than gradual adjustments, according to emerging markets specialist Timothy Ash, who also warned of the risks associated with such a move.

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Turkish election victory for Erdogan leaves nation divided

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s supporters celebrated late into the night after he secured another five years as Turkey’s president. Erdogan proclaimed that the entire nation of 85 million had won, but his call for unity seemed insincere as he mocked his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu and targeted a jailed Kurdish leader and the LGBT community.

Kilicdaroglu did not explicitly concede defeat and complained about the unfairness of the election, alleging that Erdogan’s party had utilized state resources against him. Erdogan secured just over 52% of the vote, but nearly half of the electorate did not support his authoritarian vision.

Although Kilicdaroglu managed to force Erdogan into a runoff, he was unable to close the significant gap in votes and fell more than two million votes behind. Erdogan celebrated his victory with speeches to cheering supporters in Istanbul and from his palace in Ankara, taunting Kilicdaroglu with the words “Bye, bye, Kemal.”

Erdogan also criticized the increase in seats of the main opposition party in the parliamentary vote and condemned the opposition alliance’s pro-LGBT policies, contrasting them with his focus on families. The lead-up to the election was marked by tension, including a fatal stabbing of an opposition party official, which was attributed to celebratory youths.

Although the final results were not confirmed, the Supreme Election Council declared Erdogan the winner. This extended his period in power to a quarter of a century, a result that was both unprecedented and accompanied by the opening of the palace complex to the public.

Supporters from all over Ankara gathered to celebrate the victory, momentarily setting aside Turkey’s economic crisis. Erdogan acknowledged that tackling inflation was the most urgent issue, but there are concerns about his willingness to implement necessary measures. Inflation rates near 44% have severely impacted people’s lives, with the cost of food, rent, and everyday goods skyrocketing.

Despite economic concerns, Erdogan’s supporters expressed pride in his powerful position on the global stage and his tough stance against “terrorists,” referring to Kurdish militants. Erdogan accused his opponent of siding with terrorists and vowed to keep Selahattin Demirtas, a former co-leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, in jail despite international calls for his release.

Erdogan also promised to prioritize rebuilding areas affected by earthquakes and facilitate the “voluntary” return of Syrian refugees. People flocked to Istanbul’s Taksim Square to join in the celebrations, including visitors from the Middle East and the Gulf who praised Erdogan for his support of Arabs and the Muslim world.

Despite the festive atmosphere, the idea of unity in the deeply polarized country seemed more distant than ever. Since the failed coup in 2016, Erdogan has consolidated power by abolishing the position of prime minister and expanding his authority. The opposition will now need to regroup for the local elections in 2024, with the possibility that their popular mayors in Ankara and Istanbul could have had a better chance of winning the presidential race.

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Turkish election: Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu clash in desperate race for votes

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In the final hours of Turkey’s presidential race, tensions have risen as Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to extend his 20-year rule by another five years. Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has appealed to nationalist voters by promising to expel millions of Syrian refugees, which Erdogan has labeled as hate speech and warned that it would benefit terrorists. Kilicdaroglu is trailing behind by 2.5 million votes from the first round, but he believes he can bridge the gap with the support of ultranationalist voters and those who didn’t vote in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu recently engaged in a four-hour Q&A session on a popular YouTube channel, BaBaLa TV, which has garnered 24 million views. This move was seen as a strategic move to reach out to young voters who didn’t participate in the previous round. The appearance on BaBaLa TV was crucial for Kilicdaroglu to counter Erdogan’s dominance over the Turkish media, as he controls approximately 90% of it.

International observers have criticized Turkey for not meeting the basic principles of holding a democratic election, citing limited media freedom and crackdowns on dissent. Erdogan has consolidated power over the past six years and suppressed political opponents, leading to their imprisonment. In a town called Bala, where Erdogan enjoys strong support, Kilicdaroglu is unlikely to find much backing. The majority of voters there supported Erdogan in the previous round, and there is little sign of first-time voters mobilizing.

While Turkey’s struggling economy was initially the main issue, the focus has shifted to the refugee crisis as the run-off vote approaches. Kilicdaroglu, aiming to attract ultranationalist voters, secured the support of the anti-immigrant Victory Party, whose leader claimed that Kilicdaroglu had agreed to repatriate “13 million migrants” within a year, in line with international law. However, Turkey hosts a much smaller number of refugees, and experts deem the discourse unrealistic and unfeasible.

Public opinion polls suggest that around 85% of Turks want Syrian refugees to return home, making the refugee issue a significant factor in the election. Kilicdaroglu is tapping into security concerns and the perceived threats associated with the immigrant crisis, terrorist attacks, and regional conflicts involving Russia, Syria, and Azerbaijan.

Erdogan has responded by claiming that he is already sending Syrian refugees back and plans to do more. He has also used manipulated videos to link Kilicdaroglu to the Kurdish militant PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization. His target is the pro-Kurdish HDP party, which supports Kilicdaroglu and has been falsely associated with the PKK by Erdogan. The HDP supports Kilicdaroglu to end what they perceive as Erdogan’s authoritarian rule but has reservations about his alliance with a far-right nationalist party.

Initially, there were expectations that Erdogan could be defeated due to his mishandling of the economy and his response to natural disasters. However, almost half of the voters supported him in the first round. The question remains whether Kilicdaroglu’s change in strategy will be effective. Some voters, like Songul, who desired change initially, have decided to stick with Erdogan due to a lack of trust in Kilicdaroglu and the absence of a viable alternative.

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Turkey’s Erdogan appears to have upper hand after tense night

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The battle for the presidency in Turkey is likely to go to a run-off, with both candidates confident of victory. After being in power for 20 years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his belief in winning another five-year term, while his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu seemed to have a favorable chance of winning. However, preliminary results from the first round showed Erdogan leading with 49.4% of the votes, compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 45%. Erdogan’s alliance of parties also secured a majority in parliament, providing an additional advantage in the presidential run-off.

The opposition parties in Turkey had joined forces to end Erdogan’s extended power, and the outcome of the election is closely watched by Western countries. Kilicdaroglu pledged to revive Turkish democracy and strengthen relations with NATO allies, while Erdogan’s government, with an Islamist-rooted background, accused the West of conspiring against him.

Following the announcement of the preliminary results, Kilicdaroglu remained optimistic, stating that he would win in the second round if the nation demanded it. However, there were concerns that the government was trying to obstruct the will of the people through challenges in opposition strongholds. Rising stars within Kilicdaroglu’s party reminded voters that Erdogan’s party had employed similar strategies in the past. The opposition highlighted the efforts of their volunteers in safeguarding the ballots to ensure a fair process.

Although Kilicdaroglu, who has lost several previous elections, struck a chord with his message of curbing the president’s excessive powers, Erdogan seems to have the upper hand despite the challenging circumstances. Turkey has been grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, with 44% inflation, exacerbated by Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. The government also faced criticism for its slow response to the earthquakes in February, which claimed many lives.

Overnight results indicated that Erdogan’s support in areas affected by the earthquakes only slightly decreased, with his backing remaining above 60% in most of the eight cities. Erdogan, speaking to his supporters, declared that he was far ahead, despite the final results not yet being available. The outcome defied pollsters’ predictions, who had suggested that Kilicdaroglu held an advantage and could potentially win without a run-off.

Unconfirmed results quoted by the state news agency Anadolu suggested that Erdogan’s AK Party, in alliance with the nationalist MHP, was heading for a parliamentary majority, with 316 seats out of 600. This result showcases the deep polarization within Turkish society, a century after the founding of the modern Turkish republic by Kemal Ataturk.

As the expected run-off approaches, it remains uncertain how close the race will be. Speculation has already emerged regarding the 5% of votes received by the third candidate, ultranationalist Sinan Ogan. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely seek Ogan’s endorsement, but it is unclear if his supporters will follow suit.

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