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Russia hikes interest rates to 15% as inflation soars

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The Central Bank of Russia has raised its key interest rate to 15% in an effort to tackle inflation and support the struggling rouble, marking the fourth consecutive increase. The unexpected two-percentage-point hike was prompted by the persistently high global inflation rates, partly triggered by Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, which has led to a 6% inflation rate in Russia as of September.

The country has been experiencing escalated government spending directed towards its military efforts, contributing to the recent inflationary pressures. With the latest hike, the Bank of Russia has cumulatively raised the rates by 7.5 percentage points since July, aiming to stabilize inflation at the targeted 4% level. The decision for the emergency rate hike in August was prompted by the rouble’s decline, which fell below 100 against the US dollar, necessitating a tighter monetary policy.

The global supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, coupled with the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have notably impacted food and energy prices, driving the overall inflation up. Additionally, the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine has had adverse effects on the country’s economy, causing a significant depreciation of the rouble. The sanctions have led to constraints on Russia’s trade, with several European countries seeking alternative energy suppliers and implementing measures to limit Russia’s oil export earnings.

Despite the successive rate hikes, there are concerns that Russia may encounter challenges in attracting foreign investment due to the ongoing sanctions. The exclusion of Russia from the Swift international payment system has further added to the economic strain. Nonetheless, the European Commission has affirmed that the sanctions are effective in exerting pressure on Russia.

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Swedish court clears dual national Skvortsov of spying for Russia

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In Stockholm, a Russian-born Swedish man, Sergei Skvortsov, has been cleared by a court of charges relating to alleged unlawful intelligence activities against the US and Sweden. The 60-year-old, who operated import-export businesses, was accused of transmitting Western technology to Russia’s military intelligence service over a nine-year period from 2013 to 2022. Throughout the trial, Skvortsov has maintained his innocence.

His defense lawyer, Ulrika Borg, expressed his relief at the verdict, although prosecutors still have three weeks to appeal. The prosecution, led by Henrik Olin, contended that Skvortsov functioned as a “procurement agent,” facilitating the supply of electronics to Russia’s military and its GRU military intelligence service. Olin sought a five-year prison term for Skvortsov, characterizing him as a serious threat to US and Swedish security.

Skvortsov and his wife were arrested in a dramatic dawn raid conducted by special forces in November 2022. However, his wife was subsequently released without charge. The trial largely took place behind closed doors, and testimony was provided by an FBI official.

Although the judge acknowledged that Skvortsov had engaged in many of the activities outlined by the prosecution, he emphasized that there was no evidence to suggest that Skvortsov’s actions were intended for espionage purposes. Consequently, the court ruled in favor of Skvortsov’s acquittal.

The case occurred amidst a backdrop of heightened tensions in Sweden concerning espionage, with the country applying for membership in NATO in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In a separate incident, a couple in their mid-50s was arrested on suspicion of handling classified information, with the wife having a background in intelligence work for Sweden’s military. Her husband, a former high-ranking military officer, has denied the allegations.

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American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva arrested in Russia

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Alsu Kurmasheva, an American journalist working for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Prague, was detained after a visit to her family in Kazan, Russia. She was first detained on June 2 and then again recently, charged with failing to register as a foreign agent, which could lead to a five-year jail term.

The arrest of Alsu Kurmasheva comes after the detention of another American journalist, Evan Gershkovich, who was charged with espionage earlier in the year. Gershkovich’s employer and the US government refute the charges, suggesting that he is being held for potential exchange purposes.

Kurmasheva, who holds both US and Russian citizenship, is known for her work focusing on ethnic minority issues in central Russia. She was charged with collecting information on behalf of foreign governments under a law that is criticized for its broad interpretation, potentially encompassing even basic information about military personnel.

This incident adds to a series of events where Russian authorities have been accused of using repressive laws to target journalists and stifle independent reporting. Notably, several journalists and Kremlin critics have been labeled “foreign agents,” and some, including Nobel Peace Prize-winner Dmitry Muratov, have faced such accusations. Additionally, cases like that of Ivan Safronov, who was sentenced to 22 years on treason charges, and Dmitry Ivanov, sentenced to eight and a half years for sharing information about the Russian army, have raised concerns about the state of press freedom in the country.

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Vladimir Putin feted at Xi Jinping’s global Belt and Road summit

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At a global summit in Beijing, Russian leader Vladimir Putin received special treatment, alongside China’s President Xi Jinping, as the two countries solidified their alliance amid global geopolitical tensions. The event commemorated a decade of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Despite diplomatic scrutiny and an international arrest warrant issued against him, Putin’s close relationship with Xi was evident throughout the summit. The two leaders were prominent during the opening ceremony and engaged in an extended bilateral meeting.

The summit highlighted China and Russia’s mutual opposition to the Western world order, advocating for a multipolar global system. China, positioning the BRI as a means to establish a more equitable world order, emphasized principles of cooperation, inclusivity, and sustainable development.

While the BRI has stimulated development, it has also faced criticism for fostering debt dependency and environmental degradation. The summit saw participation from various countries, particularly from Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and representatives from the Afghan Taliban government.

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Putin denies Russia behind Finland gas pipeline damage

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Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed accusations that Russia was responsible for the recent damage to the Baltic-connector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. Finnish officials, however, suspect external interference and possible Russian involvement.

Estonia’s Defense Minister also suggested that the damage was caused by more than just normal means. Despite this, President Putin denied any knowledge of the pipeline’s existence and suggested that the blame could lie with an anchor or seismic activity.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed solidarity with Estonia and Finland, warning of a united response if the damage is proven to be deliberate. Finnish authorities confirmed that the damage was not due to regular usage or pressure changes and emphasized that the country’s energy security remains intact due to alternative gas sources. The incident has reignited concerns about energy security after previous Nord Stream pipeline incidents.

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Russia’s Rejection from UN Human Rights Council Membership

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Russia’s ambition to regain its seat at the United Nations’ Human Rights Council was dealt a significant blow as the nation failed to secure a new three-year term. Russia’s expulsion from the council in April of the previous year, prompted by its military incursion into Ukraine, had led the country to campaign vigorously for reinstatement, aiming to exploit divisions among UN member states regarding support for Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Bulgaria and Albania managed to secure the two available seats designated for Eastern European countries. The voting took place in the aftermath of a Russian missile attack in northeastern Ukraine, which resulted in the tragic loss of 52 lives.

The final tally revealed Russia receiving 83 votes in favor, a number that fell short of securing a seat. In contrast, Bulgaria received 160 votes, while Albania garnered 123. Russia’s vigorous campaign, which included offering incentives such as grain and arms to smaller nations, failed to garner sufficient support.

Throughout the process, Moscow had voiced its commitment to finding “adequate solutions for human rights issues” and expressed a desire to prevent the council from becoming an “instrument serving the political interests of a specific group of countries,” which was perceived to be a reference to Western nations.

Diplomats speculated that Russia had counted on receiving support from a considerable number of member states, particularly from developing nations, albeit privately. However, these nations appeared to have abstained from voting in favor of Russia publicly to avoid antagonizing Western states.

Russia’s campaign also included accusations that the United States had spearheaded efforts to prevent their return to the council.

Last year, Russia was suspended from the Human Rights Council with 93 members of the UN General Assembly voting in favor, 24 against, and 58 abstaining.

For the next three years starting in 2024, the Human Rights Council will comprise the following countries: Albania, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burundi, China, the Ivory Coast, Cuba, Dominican Republic, France, Ghana, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Malawi, and the Netherlands.

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Viktor Sokolov: Russian video ‘shows Black Sea fleet commander alive’

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The Russian Defense Ministry has released a video featuring the commander of the Black Sea Fleet at a conference, despite Ukraine’s claim of his death. The timing of this footage, where Viktor Sokolov is seen in a video link with the defense minister, remains uncertain.

The Russian ministry stated that this meeting with high-ranking officials occurred on Tuesday. On Monday, Ukraine’s special forces announced that Admiral Sokolov and 33 other officers had been killed in a missile strike on the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea, which is currently under Russian control.

On Wednesday, a television channel affiliated with Russia’s defense ministry aired an interview with Admiral Sokolov, where he claimed that the fleet was performing well. The exact date of this interview is unclear.

Kyiv did not directly name the admiral and lacked evidence of his death. Now, they are “clarifying” their earlier reports, referring to “open sources” for their claim about the admiral’s fate. This represents a notable shift in tone from their initial confidence.

The video, lasting eight minutes, depicts a Defense Ministry collegium meeting that purportedly took place on Tuesday morning, with Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu conversing with senior officials in Moscow. He is briefly shown on video link with the commanders of Russia’s five fleets, including the Black Sea Fleet, although none of them speak.

Facial recognition software suggests a match between the man in the video and other images of Admiral Sokolov. However, the BBC has not been able to confirm whether the meeting occurred on Tuesday or if the image of Admiral Sokolov on the video link is in real time.

Last Friday, Ukraine claimed to have targeted the fleet’s headquarters, which is considered a crucial target. Footage on social media showed smoke over the building. Russia stated that it had intercepted five missiles, though one serviceman was reported missing. Kyiv has been launching near-daily strikes against Russian forces in Crimea.

Aside from its role in potential attacks against Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet symbolizes Russia’s long-standing military presence in the region. It was based in Crimea even before Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014.

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Explosion at Nagorno-Karabakh Fuel Depot Claims 20 Lives and Refugee Numbers Soar

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A devastating explosion at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, has claimed the lives of 20 individuals and left hundreds injured, according to local Armenian authorities.

Approximately 300 people were admitted to hospitals, with many in critical condition.

These tragic events coincide with the arrival of 13,350 refugees into Armenia from the conflict-ridden Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Nagorno-Karabakh is at the center of a long-standing dispute and is predominantly populated by around 120,000 ethnic Armenians.

The cause of the explosion in Stepanakert, the main city, remains unclear.

Gegham Stepanyan, the Human Rights Ombudsman, expressed concern on social media, reporting that the explosion had resulted in over 200 injuries, many of which were severe or extremely severe. Nagorno-Karabakh’s medical facilities are struggling to cope with the influx of patients.

Local authorities have confirmed the discovery of 13 unidentified bodies at the explosion site, with an additional seven individuals succumbing to their injuries in hospitals.

The seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan has prompted thousands of people to flee the region, following the Armenian government’s announcement of plans to relocate those displaced by the conflict.

Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has raised concerns about ethnic cleansing in the region and expressed disappointment that the international community hasn’t acted more decisively.

Azerbaijan has stated its intention to reintegrate ethnic Armenians as equal citizens.

Refugees who have reached Goris in Armenia, near the Karabakh border, have shared their harrowing experiences, with one individual expressing a preference for death over their current situation.

Envoys from Armenia and Azerbaijan are scheduled to meet in Brussels for European Union-backed talks. These discussions mark the first diplomatic negotiations since Azerbaijan’s recent takeover of the enclave.

Both sides will be represented by their national security advisors.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region in the South Caucasus, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by ethnic Armenians for three decades.

Armenia and Russia have provided support to the enclave, with Russia maintaining a presence of hundreds of soldiers.

Last week, as Azerbaijan’s army advanced, five Russian peacekeepers were killed, along with at least 200 ethnic Armenians and dozens of Azerbaijani soldiers.

Azerbaijan’s defense ministry has reported the confiscation of additional military equipment, including rockets, artillery shells, mines, and ammunition.

Despite public assurances from Azerbaijan, concerns persist for the well-being of Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents. Only one aid delivery of 70 tonnes of food has been allowed since separatists agreed to a ceasefire and disarm.

Ethnic Armenian leaders emphasize that thousands are in dire need of food and shelter, many resorting to seeking refuge in basements, schools, or the open air.

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Polish Politics Grappling with ‘Ukraine Fatigue’ Concerns

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Since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Poland has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv, providing military aid and making a passionate case for this support as crucial to Poland’s own defense against Russian aggression. However, there has been a notable shift in the Polish government’s stance on Ukraine.

Recently, a change in tone has emerged, raising questions about Poland’s commitment to Kyiv. Some Polish officials have suggested that Ukraine should show more gratitude for Poland’s support. Poland’s prime minister even hinted at the possibility of ending weapons transfers to Ukraine, though others in his party tried to backtrack on that message.

Polish President Andrzej Duda made a particularly controversial statement, likening Ukraine to a drowning man who could potentially pull down his rescuers. Moscow seized upon these remarks with enthusiasm.

The downturn in relations between the two neighboring countries began over a dispute about grain imports that remains unresolved. Ukraine needs to export its harvest, and land routes are vital since Russia has been deliberately targeting ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River. However, Poland, in a bid to protect its own farmers, has restricted cheaper Ukrainian grain from entering its domestic market, only permitting it to transit to the rest of the European Union.

This shift in Poland’s stance is not occurring in isolation, as “Ukraine fatigue” is looming over election campaigns in various countries. Poland’s governing Law and Justice party (PiS), which is leading in the polls but faces tight margins, is positioning itself as the defender of Polish interests. PiS aims to attract conservative voters who may be sympathetic to the idea that Ukraine is not showing enough gratitude for Polish support.

Despite criticism from opposition politicians who label this shift as dangerous nationalism, Poland’s changing tone reflects a broader trend. Ukraine is concerned about maintaining strong Western support as it faces Russian forces, making this shift in Poland’s stance a cause for worry. However, Poland emphasizes that international aid will continue to reach Ukraine’s frontlines through Rzeszow in the east, a critical transit hub for military supplies. Talks between Ukraine and Poland regarding the grain dispute are ongoing.

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Nagorno-Karabakh Authorities Accept Azerbaijan’s Request for Disarmament

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A day after Azerbaijan initiated an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, ethnic-Armenian forces have agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Russia. This agreement includes the significant concession of complete disarmament by Karabakh forces. Nagorno-Karabakh, home to around 120,000 ethnic Armenians, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

Three years ago, Azerbaijan reclaimed areas in and around Karabakh and, on Tuesday, demanded an unconditional surrender. Karabakh authorities have reported at least 32 casualties, including seven civilians, and approximately 200 injuries since Azerbaijan launched what it termed “anti-terror” operations.

Azerbaijan’s leadership has announced plans to meet with Armenian representatives from Karabakh to discuss “re-integration” matters in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh, located about 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of Karabakh’s regional capital, known as Khankendi to Azerbaijanis and Stepanakert to Armenians.

Mediated by Russian peacekeepers, enclave leaders have confirmed a comprehensive cessation of hostilities beginning at 13:00 local time (09:00 GMT). However, despite the ceasefire, loud explosions persisted in the regional capital, and minor clashes were reported by both sides. Azerbaijan claimed to have captured over 90 positions from ethnic Armenians since the conflict began.

Karabakh officials urged residents to remain in shelters and avoid heading to the local airport, which adjoins a Russian peacekeeping base. Nonetheless, a group of civilians gathered near the airport.

Russia revealed that its peacekeepers had evacuated 2,000 people from Karabakh villages since the offensive commenced. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that his government played no part in crafting the ceasefire text and insisted that Russian peacekeepers bore full responsibility for the safety of the local population. On Tuesday, he accused Azerbaijan of carrying out “ethnic cleansing” in Karabakh.

The terms of the truce require complete disarmament and disbandment of local Karabakh forces, along with a commitment for Armenian forces to withdraw, despite Yerevan’s denial of any military presence there.

Azerbaijan’s presidential envoy, Elchin Amirbekov, stated that Russian peacekeepers played a crucial role in facilitating the ceasefire’s implementation.

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