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Macron’s Election Gamble: The Fate of French Democracy at Stake

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Two neighboring countries are approaching unexpected elections, with both governments expected to fall. Political tensions have strained relationships among families and friends. Despite significant issues in the UK election, the stakes are higher in France, where not just a government or leader is at risk, but the political system itself. Unlike the UK, which is at the end of a political cycle and where calling an early election was rational for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, France faces uncertainty.

President Macron called a snap election after a significant defeat by the far right in the European parliament elections. His aim was to regain a centrist majority in the National Assembly, but polls indicate the far-right National Rally (RN) remains ahead, with a left-wing alliance, led by France Unbowed (LFI), potentially coming second. The likely outcomes are either an RN majority or a hung parliament, both of which pose significant risks: a sovereign debt crisis, street violence, and institutional collapse.

Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez points out that France’s Fifth Republic was designed to handle crises, but the current instability and the president’s own confusion could lead to a breakdown of institutions. Across France, there is an awareness of the country’s precarious situation.

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, could become the next Prime Minister, adding to the political tension. Macron’s invocation of potential “civil war” and his attempt to use fear to drive voters towards the center is seen as dangerous and could incite hate and violence. The government is preparing for possible violent protests during the election rounds on June 30 and July 7. The far-left LFI’s support base in immigrant-heavy areas and its stance on Gaza further complicate matters.

Political instability could also affect the upcoming Olympic Games, which begin shortly after the election. Baverez draws a parallel between France’s current situation and the populist moments in the US and UK a decade ago, suggesting that France’s institutions and the euro previously shielded it from such upheaval. However, with the traditional method of managing social peace through public debt no longer viable, France now faces its own populist challenge.

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Germany: Far-right celebrate beating Scholz’s party

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Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), expressed on Monday that there is a growing demand for a vote of confidence and new elections, stating that the public is frustrated. The AfD is celebrating their unexpected success in the European Parliament elections, where they secured 16%, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left SPD.

Despite facing numerous scandals, including allegations of money laundering, connections to the Kremlin, and espionage for China, the AfD’s campaign managed to perform well. Their two lead candidates, Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron, were sidelined due to investigations into these allegations, with Krah further tarnishing the party’s image by downplaying Nazi crimes. Consequently, France’s hard-right leader Marine Le Pen distanced herself from the AfD.

In an effort to rehabilitate the party’s image, Weidel has excluded Krah from the AfD’s EU delegation. The party attributes the scandals to a “media campaign” and criticizes the judiciary and intelligence services for being politically biased. This narrative of victimization seems to have resonated with voters.

The AfD’s effective use of social media and direct slogans contrasted with the government’s more abstract campaign messaging about “defending democracy.” Co-leader Tino Chrupalla emphasized addressing real issues over engaging in mutual insults, which appeared to appeal to the electorate, especially in eastern Germany and among younger voters.

Meanwhile, the governing coalition is grappling with the poor election results, described as a “painful humiliation” by an SPD leader. Although the conservatives led with 30%, their performance was not seen as particularly strong given the government’s unpopularity. In eastern Germany, the AfD outperformed them, and the results complicate the formation of a stable coalition in the national parliament.

This outcome bolsters CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s efforts to steer his party towards a more conservative stance and supports his ambition to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, the real beneficiaries of the election are the populists.

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Germany, France forget differences to shield them from the increasing tide of modern populism

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From Italy and Spain to the Brexit-affected UK, many European countries have already succumbed to the destructive wave of populism. The economic principle of protectionism, which has come as a part and parcel of the political ideology of modern populism, has clandestinely infiltrated into the economic structure of the populism-affected countries, weakening their present economic structure rooted in the economic principle of liberalism.

Definitely, the European Union is worried about this development. It has almost lost one of its arms to this development. It may not sustain another loss.

It is in this backdrop that Germany and France have come together to act. The role they play is the role of a defender, the defender of an economic structure which once gifted life breadth to the embattled European continent.

The latest agreement both has signed means that henceforth Germany and France will not think differently in their internal and external security, economic and political affairs.

Their decision to develop a European army is capable to irritate many, especially the United States and the United Kingdom. To them, the more irritating one will not be the agreement for economic corporation, political corporation and/or defence corporate, but the understanding for cultural corporation.

It is noteworthy that the measures for the increased cultural corporation has been doubled by Germans and France at the time many of their friends are researching on how to segregate people on the basis of culture.

The developments indicate that the France-Germany agreement attempts to launch attacks on the concepts of protectionism and populism from all the four fronts –political, economic, security and cultural- on which these dangerous concepts are pivoted.

Will the new European defenders of liberalism win? How better they execute their plan decides what answer the aforesaid question deserves.

Vignesh. S. G
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