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Before the EU election, Poland’s PM issued a dire warning: “Vote or face war.”

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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urges voters to avoid war by voting in the European elections. Emphasizing security and the threat of Russian aggression, Tusk’s Civic Coalition stresses the importance of a united EU stance against Moscow, particularly with pro-Russian parties gaining traction in central Europe.

Poles, historically and geographically wary of Russia, are being urged to vote to protect themselves. Northern Poland shares a heavily monitored 230km (142 miles) border with Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland has tightened security and plans to further reinforce the border with a 10-billion-zloty (£1.992bn) “Shield East” project, coordinated with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

While Tusk’s opponents, the Law and Justice party (PiS), focus on issues like the EU’s migration deal and the Green Deal, they also recognize the Russian threat, having invested heavily in defense during their governance. This election sees PiS candidate Karol Karski drawing attention with a campaign video of him symbolically stopping a Russian tank.

In schools, Polish children are learning survival skills, reflecting the national concern over the Russian threat. Captain Dominik Pijarski of the 6th Mazovian Brigade confirms that Poland is preparing for a real threat from Russia, with the entire nation learning lessons from the Ukraine invasion.

However, not all Poles unconditionally support Ukraine. In rural areas, farmers protest against the EU Green Deal and competition from Ukrainian farmers who benefit from tariff-free exports and can use banned chemicals, leading to higher productivity. These farmers support Ukraine militarily but feel the economic impact is unfair.

The European election has not generated much excitement, with traditionally lower turnout compared to national votes. However, Tusk’s final rally in Warsaw will likely focus on security, reiterating the ongoing risk of living next to Russia and the need for European vigilance.

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Baltic worries about Russia’s proposal to redraw sea borders

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Calls for calm have been issued in Finland and the Baltic states following a draft Russian decree proposing border revisions in the Baltic Sea. Latvia is seeking clarification, while Lithuania accuses the Kremlin of using the decree as an intimidation tactic. Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that political leaders are monitoring the situation and Finland will respond calmly and factually.

The draft, issued by Russia’s defense ministry, suggested altering sea borders around Russian islands in the Gulf of Finland and the exclave of Kaliningrad. Initially reported by Russia’s Tass news agency, the draft aimed to redraw Soviet-era borders from January 1985. It was unclear if Finnish or Lithuanian waters near Kaliningrad would be affected, but the proposal included the eastern Gulf of Finland, islands near the Finnish coast, and areas around Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in Kaliningrad.

As members of the EU and NATO, Finland and the Baltic states have the alliance’s commitment to defend their borders. Finland’s defense and foreign committees convened emergency meetings, with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stating there is no immediate cause for alarm.

The Russian proposals were subsequently removed from public view with a “draft deleted” notice. A Russian source later confirmed no plans to alter territorial waters in the Baltic. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov directed questions to the defense ministry, noting the political landscape had changed since the 1980s and emphasizing the heightened confrontation in the Baltic region.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs suggested Russia’s approach was typical: probing reactions and retreating if met with resistance. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described the draft as an escalation against NATO and the EU, advocating a strong response.

Simultaneously, Sweden’s armed forces chief, Gen Micael Byden, warned of Putin’s ambitions to control the Baltic Sea. Byden stressed the importance of keeping the Baltic Sea out of Putin’s control to maintain peace and stability. Sweden, a NATO member since March, has reinforced its military presence on the Baltic island of Gotland, which Gen Byden believes Russia has targeted.

In response to potential migration issues, Finland, which joined NATO last year, plans to prevent large-scale asylum seeker crossings from Russia. Helsinki fears Russia might exploit migration, but the UN refugee agency warns the draft law could lead to harmful pushbacks of legitimate asylum seekers, risking severe injuries, family separations, and deaths, according to UNHCR’s Philippe Leclerc.

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Murder plot trial puts Latvia bank system in focus

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In Latvia, a businessman is scheduled to appear in court on Saturday for a murder plot trial that may expose the questionable history of the country’s banking system. Mihails Ulmans, who partially owns LPB bank, and his associate Aleksandrs Babenko are accused of paying the killer of Martins Bunkus, an insolvency lawyer who had allegedly uncovered evidence of money laundering at the bank. The murder occurred in 2018, and both defendants deny any involvement.

According to prosecutors, Mr. Bunkus discovered evidence of money laundering involving Ulmans and Babenko while dealing with another company’s liquidation. He reported his concerns to Latvian financial crime authorities. In September 2016, there was an unsuccessful attempt on Bunkus’s life, but he was later shot dead in broad daylight during rush hour in May 2018. The assailants concealed a Kalashnikov rifle under a tent on a cargo trailer, which they towed behind a van, and fired multiple rounds into Bunkus’s car.

Ulman and Babenko were arrested in May 2022, four years after the murder took place, and have been in custody since then. Babenko’s defense team argues that his rights have been violated by the prolonged detention.

The prosecution alleges that the person who arranged the murder was promised €100,000 (£86,850), and the killer was promised €200,000. Another individual, a Russian national, is also on trial for carrying out the murder. The trial will be presided over by a judge without a jury, following Latvia’s common practice.

Apart from his partial ownership of LPB, Ulmans has investments in various sectors, including duty-free shops in Russian airports and customs warehouses.

This case is not the first time allegations of money laundering in the Latvian banking system have surfaced. ABLV, the country’s third-largest bank, went into voluntary liquidation in 2018 following accusations by the US Treasury of various offenses, including sanctions breaches. In the same year, LPB itself was fined €2.2m (£1.9m) for failing to address regulatory issues dating back to 2016. In response, Latvia has implemented extensive reforms to combat the influx of illicit funds, primarily from Russia.

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