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Russia confirms damage to warship in Black Sea

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A Ukrainian airstrike targeted a Russian warship, the Novocherkassk, at the Black Sea port of Feodosiya in Russian-occupied Crimea, causing damage and casualties. The attack occurred early on a Tuesday morning, with the Ukrainian Air Force claiming responsibility and stating that their warplanes had successfully destroyed the ship using guided missiles. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the large landing ship was hit, resulting in one fatality and several injuries. Six buildings were damaged, and some people had to be relocated to temporary accommodation centers. The port’s transport operations were reportedly functioning normally after the area was cordoned off, and the fire caused by the attack was contained.

Footage depicting a substantial explosion at the port was shared by Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lt Gen Mykola Oleshchuk, though independent verification of the images is lacking. Satellite imagery from December 24 showed a ship at the port matching the length of the Novocherkassk. This landing ship is designed for transporting troops, weapons, and cargo to shore.

There have been previous instances of Ukrainian forces targeting the Novocherkassk. In March 2022, the ship was reportedly damaged in an attack on the occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, where another amphibious assault ship, the Saratov, was sunk. Lt Gen Oleshchuk mentioned on Telegram that the Novocherkassk had met a fate similar to the Moskva, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, which sank in the Black Sea the previous year.

Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to the Ukrainian Air Force, joking about the “impressive replenishment” of the Russian Black Sea fleet. He emphasized that occupiers would find no peaceful place in Ukraine. The ongoing conflict stems from Russia’s seizure and annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, with Russian forces based in Crimea playing a significant role in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted Russian forces in Crimea, destroying and damaging multiple navy ships in the Black Sea. Last September, a missile strike on the Black Sea fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol led to the relocation of much of the Russian Black Sea fleet to Novorossiysk.

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Russia’s new Black Sea naval base alarms Georgia

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In early November, 50 opposition MPs in Georgia urged NATO and EU member states to unite against Russia’s plan to establish a permanent naval base in Abkhazia, a breakaway region. The move has raised concerns that it could involve Georgia in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and disrupt Tbilisi’s plans for a Black Sea port. Abkhazia, though internationally recognized as part of Georgia, has been under Russian and separatist control since the 1990s.

Georgia’s foreign ministry condemned Russia’s plan as a violation of sovereignty, but officials downplayed the immediate threat. Satellite imagery suggests ongoing dredging and construction at the port, indicating potential infrastructure for larger cargo ships. Some fear the base could involve Georgia in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The head of Georgia’s Foreign Relations Committee emphasized the government’s focus on immediate threats, such as Russian forces near the occupation line. Despite assurances, concerns exist that the naval base could impact Georgia’s mega-infrastructure project—a deep-sea port in Anaklia, crucial for the Middle Corridor, a fast route between Asia and Europe avoiding Russia.

The Anaklia project was canceled in 2020, with accusations that the government yielded to Moscow’s interests. The cancellation led to international arbitration. The government maintains plans to revive the deep-sea port.

While Georgia has a pro-EU population, its government has a complex relationship with Moscow. Accusations of a pro-Russian stance were labeled “absurd,” citing EU agreements and aspirations. However, the delicate situation underscores Georgia’s vulnerability due to its history of conflicts with Russia and lack of NATO security.

Georgia alleges Russia is using the naval base to pressure against EU integration. A decision on Georgia’s EU candidate status is expected at a December summit. Officials assert Russia aims to undermine Georgia’s stability and European integration, showcasing its influence in the South Caucasus.

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Ukraine war: Putin to boost Russian troop numbers by 15%

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree approving a 15% increase in the country’s troop numbers, gradually adding 170,000 personnel to reach a total of 1,320,000. The move, as announced by the defense ministry, is a response to perceived threats, particularly from the expansion of NATO. The ministry emphasized that the augmentation will be carried out through a staged recruitment drive rather than mobilization or changes to conscription procedures.

The rationale behind the decision includes concerns about the “growth of the joint armed forces of [NATO] near Russia’s borders” and the perceived threats associated with Russia’s ongoing military operations, particularly its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.

Amidst this development, NATO’s recent expansion, which now includes Finland, and Sweden’s application to join, have been highlighted as contributing factors to Russia’s decision. The alliance has clarified that Ukraine’s potential membership is contingent on meeting certain conditions, though a specific timeline has not been specified.

Notably, Ukraine cannot pursue NATO membership while it remains in a state of conflict with Russia. Against this backdrop, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for reinforcements and enhanced defenses along the front line with Russia, particularly given the challenging weather conditions with temperatures falling below freezing in the region.

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Finland Alleges Russia’s Involvement in Facilitating Unauthorized Migrant Crossings

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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has accused Russia of aiding migrants in entering Finland illegally, alleging that some have received assistance from Russian border guards. The number of unauthorized crossings has increased this week, with around 89 incidents recorded in two days, compared to 91 in the preceding four months. Finnish officials reveal that migrants, including individuals from Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, are arriving legally in Russia but lack authorization to enter Finland, an EU member state.

Colonel Matti Pitkaniitty of the Finnish border guard noted a change in Russian policy, asserting that Russian guards traditionally prevented people without proper documents from reaching the Finnish border. The migrants are exploiting an agreement allowing cycling across the border, prompting Finland to recently ban bicycle crossings. Most activity is concentrated around the Nuijamaa and Vaalimaa border crossings in south-eastern Finland. Prime Minister Orpo claimed that Russian authorities are facilitating these illegal crossings, emphasizing the assistance provided by border guards.

In 2021, a significant number of migrants from the Middle East and Africa entered EU member states Poland and Lithuania by flying to Belarus, a close Russian ally. The EU accused Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko of using migration as a tool of “hybrid warfare” to destabilize the bloc. Colonel Pitkaniitty, while acknowledging the manageable current numbers, stated that Finnish authorities are prepared to react if crossings increase.

Interior Minister Mari Rantanen announced plans to enhance border security, emphasizing the government’s commitment to addressing the situation. Colonel Pitkaniitty noted that the route into the EU via Russia is considered safer than other options, such as crossing the Mediterranean by sea. He expressed concern that word of this route’s safety might attract more migrants, potentially leading to a rapid increase in numbers, emphasizing the unpredictability of when the opportunity might end.

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Swedish court clears dual national Skvortsov of spying for Russia

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In Stockholm, a Russian-born Swedish man, Sergei Skvortsov, has been cleared by a court of charges relating to alleged unlawful intelligence activities against the US and Sweden. The 60-year-old, who operated import-export businesses, was accused of transmitting Western technology to Russia’s military intelligence service over a nine-year period from 2013 to 2022. Throughout the trial, Skvortsov has maintained his innocence.

His defense lawyer, Ulrika Borg, expressed his relief at the verdict, although prosecutors still have three weeks to appeal. The prosecution, led by Henrik Olin, contended that Skvortsov functioned as a “procurement agent,” facilitating the supply of electronics to Russia’s military and its GRU military intelligence service. Olin sought a five-year prison term for Skvortsov, characterizing him as a serious threat to US and Swedish security.

Skvortsov and his wife were arrested in a dramatic dawn raid conducted by special forces in November 2022. However, his wife was subsequently released without charge. The trial largely took place behind closed doors, and testimony was provided by an FBI official.

Although the judge acknowledged that Skvortsov had engaged in many of the activities outlined by the prosecution, he emphasized that there was no evidence to suggest that Skvortsov’s actions were intended for espionage purposes. Consequently, the court ruled in favor of Skvortsov’s acquittal.

The case occurred amidst a backdrop of heightened tensions in Sweden concerning espionage, with the country applying for membership in NATO in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In a separate incident, a couple in their mid-50s was arrested on suspicion of handling classified information, with the wife having a background in intelligence work for Sweden’s military. Her husband, a former high-ranking military officer, has denied the allegations.

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Vladimir Putin feted at Xi Jinping’s global Belt and Road summit

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At a global summit in Beijing, Russian leader Vladimir Putin received special treatment, alongside China’s President Xi Jinping, as the two countries solidified their alliance amid global geopolitical tensions. The event commemorated a decade of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Despite diplomatic scrutiny and an international arrest warrant issued against him, Putin’s close relationship with Xi was evident throughout the summit. The two leaders were prominent during the opening ceremony and engaged in an extended bilateral meeting.

The summit highlighted China and Russia’s mutual opposition to the Western world order, advocating for a multipolar global system. China, positioning the BRI as a means to establish a more equitable world order, emphasized principles of cooperation, inclusivity, and sustainable development.

While the BRI has stimulated development, it has also faced criticism for fostering debt dependency and environmental degradation. The summit saw participation from various countries, particularly from Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and representatives from the Afghan Taliban government.

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Macron Announces France’s Troop Withdrawal and Ambassador Recall Amid Niger Coup

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French President Emmanuel Macron has announced the withdrawal of France’s ambassador from Niger and the termination of all military cooperation with the country in response to a recent coup. Macron stated, “France has decided to withdraw its ambassador. In the next hours, our ambassador and several diplomats will return to France,” and he declared that military cooperation is “over,” with French troops set to leave in the coming months. The military junta, which took control of Niger in July, welcomed this decision as a step toward the country’s sovereignty.

Approximately 1,500 French soldiers are stationed in the landlocked West African nation. The move comes after months of tension and protests against France’s presence in Niger, marked by regular demonstrations in the capital, Niamey. This decision has significant implications for France’s operations against Islamist militants in the broader Sahel region and its influence in the area. However, Macron emphasized that France would not allow itself to be held hostage by the coup leaders.

Macron reiterated his support for ousted Niger President Mohamed Bazoum, currently held captive by the coup leaders, viewing him as the country’s “sole legitimate authority.” He described Bazoum as a “hostage” and suggested that the coup was motivated by his courageous reforms and political rivalries.

Niger is one of several former French colonies in West Africa where the military has recently seized power, following similar events in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Chad. Anti-French sentiment has been on the rise in the region, with accusations of neocolonialist policies against Paris.

Furthermore, concerns have emerged in the West regarding the growing influence of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group in the Sahel region. Wagner is accused of human rights abuses and has supported some of the new military regimes.

The regional Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), with France’s support, has threatened military intervention in Niger to restore President Bazoum to power, but no action has been taken thus far.

Niger’s military leaders had previously demanded the departure of French Ambassador Sylvain Itte, but the French government refused to comply and did not recognize the military regime as legitimate. This announcement from Macron comes shortly after Niger’s coup leaders banned “French aircraft” from flying over the country, restricting access to Niger’s airspace for French flights.

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Poland Halts Weapon Exports to Ukraine Amidst Grain Dispute

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One of Ukraine’s steadfast supporters, Poland, has declared that it will cease its weapon supplies to its neighboring country, Ukraine, citing a diplomatic dispute regarding Ukraine’s grain exports as the primary reason. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emphasized that Poland’s current focus is on bolstering its own defense capabilities with more modern weaponry.

Poland had already provided Ukraine with significant military assistance, including 320 Soviet-era tanks and 14 MiG-29 fighter jets. However, their willingness to continue such support has dwindled, coinciding with escalating tensions between the two nations.

The recent diplomatic rift was triggered when Poland, along with Hungary and Slovakia, extended a ban on Ukrainian grain imports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s comments at the United Nations, characterizing their actions as political theater, added fuel to the fire. Poland viewed these remarks as unjustified, given their longstanding support for Ukraine.

In his interview, Prime Minister Morawiecki underlined that while Poland remains committed to assisting Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression, it could not allow its own markets to be destabilized by Ukrainian grain imports. He pointed out that Poland was already replacing its depleted military hardware, which had been significantly reduced through transfers to Ukraine, with modern Western-produced equipment.

While arms exports to Ukraine will not cease entirely, only previously agreed deliveries of ammunition and armaments, including those from existing contracts with Ukraine, will be fulfilled. This decision reflects Poland’s commitment to its own security and stability, while the future of its assistance to Ukraine remains uncertain.

The ongoing grain dispute arises from Ukraine’s need to find alternative overland routes for grain exports due to Russia’s full-scale invasion, which nearly closed the main Black Sea shipping lanes. Consequently, large quantities of grain flowed into Central Europe, leading the European Union to temporarily ban grain imports into several countries. Despite the EU lifting the ban, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have maintained it, leading to Ukraine’s WTO lawsuits against these nations. Poland has signaled its intention to uphold the ban, while also hinting at the possibility of expanding the list of banned products should Ukraine escalate the grain dispute. However, diplomatic channels remain open, with discussions ongoing to seek a mutually beneficial solution.

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Nagorno-Karabakh Authorities Accept Azerbaijan’s Request for Disarmament

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A day after Azerbaijan initiated an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, ethnic-Armenian forces have agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Russia. This agreement includes the significant concession of complete disarmament by Karabakh forces. Nagorno-Karabakh, home to around 120,000 ethnic Armenians, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

Three years ago, Azerbaijan reclaimed areas in and around Karabakh and, on Tuesday, demanded an unconditional surrender. Karabakh authorities have reported at least 32 casualties, including seven civilians, and approximately 200 injuries since Azerbaijan launched what it termed “anti-terror” operations.

Azerbaijan’s leadership has announced plans to meet with Armenian representatives from Karabakh to discuss “re-integration” matters in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh, located about 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of Karabakh’s regional capital, known as Khankendi to Azerbaijanis and Stepanakert to Armenians.

Mediated by Russian peacekeepers, enclave leaders have confirmed a comprehensive cessation of hostilities beginning at 13:00 local time (09:00 GMT). However, despite the ceasefire, loud explosions persisted in the regional capital, and minor clashes were reported by both sides. Azerbaijan claimed to have captured over 90 positions from ethnic Armenians since the conflict began.

Karabakh officials urged residents to remain in shelters and avoid heading to the local airport, which adjoins a Russian peacekeeping base. Nonetheless, a group of civilians gathered near the airport.

Russia revealed that its peacekeepers had evacuated 2,000 people from Karabakh villages since the offensive commenced. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that his government played no part in crafting the ceasefire text and insisted that Russian peacekeepers bore full responsibility for the safety of the local population. On Tuesday, he accused Azerbaijan of carrying out “ethnic cleansing” in Karabakh.

The terms of the truce require complete disarmament and disbandment of local Karabakh forces, along with a commitment for Armenian forces to withdraw, despite Yerevan’s denial of any military presence there.

Azerbaijan’s presidential envoy, Elchin Amirbekov, stated that Russian peacekeepers played a crucial role in facilitating the ceasefire’s implementation.

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Azerbaijan Commences Military Action in Nagorno-Karabakh

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Azerbaijan’s defense ministry has initiated “anti-terrorist” operations in regions of Nagorno-Karabakh controlled by Armenia. Tensions have remained elevated for several months concerning the disputed ethnic-Armenian enclave, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

In Karabakh’s main city, air raid sirens and mortar fire were heard. Tragically, eleven Azerbaijani police and civilians lost their lives in a mine explosion and another incident.

Officials from the breakaway region of Karabakh stated that the Azerbaijani military breached the ceasefire by launching missile and artillery attacks along the entire line of contact. Representatives from Karabakh described it as a “large-scale military offensive.”

Azerbaijan and Armenia, neighboring nations, have previously engaged in two conflicts over Nagorno-Karabakh: first in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union and again in 2020. Three years ago, Azerbaijan successfully regained territories surrounding Karabakh, which had been held by Armenia since 1994.

Since December, Azerbaijan has imposed an effective blockade on the only route into the enclave from Armenia, known as the Lachin Corridor.

On Tuesday, Baku’s defense ministry accused Armenian forces of “systematically shelling” its military positions and claimed to have responded by launching “local, anti-terrorist activities” aimed at disarming and securing the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Azerbaijani territories. They emphasized that their targets were strictly military and not civilians or civilian infrastructure.

Armenia’s defense ministry denied claims of Armenian military fire, stating that they did not correspond to reality.

The sounds of artillery and gunfire were reported from Khankendi, the regional capital of Karabakh, known as Stepanakert to Armenians. An estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians reside in this mountainous enclave.

Journalist Siranush Sargsyan reported that residential areas of the city had been struck, including a neighboring building.

Armenian officials noted that, as of 14:00 (10:00 GMT), the situation along Armenia’s own borders was “relatively stable.”

Russia’s foreign ministry disclosed that it had been informed of the Azerbaijani offensive only moments before it occurred, urging both nations to respect the ceasefire that was signed after the 2020 war. The EU’s regional special representative, Toivo Klaar, emphasized the “urgent need for an immediate ceasefire.”

The fragile truce that ended the six-week war in 2020 had been under increasing strain in recent months. Approximately 3,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to monitor the ceasefire, but Russia’s attention has been redirected to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently stated that Russia was “spontaneously leaving the region.”

Azerbaijan had denied increasing troop numbers in the region. On Monday, it permitted aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross to enter Karabakh via two routes, one through the Lachin Corridor from Armenia and the other on Azerbaijan’s Aghdam road.

Hopes for tensions to ease were dashed when Azerbaijani officials reported six casualties, including four police officers, in an incident where their vehicle hit a landmine in the Khojavand area, which had been retaken during the 2020 war. Meanwhile, ethnic Armenian officials in Karabakh asserted that it was Azerbaijan’s military that had violated the ceasefire.

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