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ECB Should Brace for New Shocks, Including Russian Threats: Simkus

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European Central Bank policymaker and Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus said the ECB’s current policy stance is appropriate, with inflation at target and interest rates in a neutral zone, but warned that fresh shocks could disrupt this balance. Speaking to Reuters, Simkus highlighted persistent global uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of Russian military aggression in eastern Europe, alongside trade frictions and other external pressures.

Simkus stressed that the ECB must ensure its systems are resilient to such risks, including safeguarding cash distribution and payment infrastructure in case of heightened security threats. He noted that countries bordering Russia face unique challenges, ranging from cyberattacks to airspace incursions, and argued that central banks must remain operationally prepared. He also added that banks need to be ready for longer-term risks such as climate change.

On monetary policy, Simkus said interest rates are firmly on hold at the ECB’s February meeting, as modest inflation fluctuations around 2% are normal. However, he cautioned against signalling future moves, saying the next rate change could equally be a hike or a cut. Emphasising flexibility, he said the ECB should avoid overreacting to short-term data swings and instead focus on broader economic trends, as shocks tend to affect growth before feeding into inflation.

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ECB Should Avoid Rushing Policy Moves Amid Uncertainty, Says Austria’s Kocher

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The European Central Bank (ECB) should be careful about taking preemptive policy action in response to rising uncertainty, Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher said in an interview with German outlet Platow. Kocher noted that while geopolitical risks have intensified recently, central banks should avoid committing to policy moves before risks clearly materialise.

Kocher pointed to heightened global uncertainty driven partly by fresh geopolitical tensions, including threats of new U.S. trade measures. However, he cautioned that acting too early—especially when inflation risks are not clearly tilted in one direction—could lock policymakers into a difficult position and complicate communication. “Some risks can be addressed in advance, but many cannot,” he said.

He added that over the past six months, risks had shifted “slightly to the positive,” with modestly improved euro zone growth expectations and stable financial markets. While acknowledging recent developments, Kocher said it was too soon to reassess the broader outlook. Financial markets currently expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026.

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Eurozone cuts interest rate for first time in 5 years

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The European Union has become the second major economy this week to reduce its lending rate, indicating progress in addressing inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%, following Canada’s decision to lower its official rate on Wednesday. This decision coincides with EU-wide elections, reflecting public discontent over living costs.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the inflation outlook has significantly improved, allowing for the rate cut. However, she cautioned that inflation would likely remain above the 2% target “well into next year,” averaging 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Lagarde emphasized that the ECB would maintain a restrictive interest rate policy as needed to achieve the 2% target, without committing to a specific rate trajectory.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, noted that the rate cut was anticipated but still a relief for European consumers and businesses. She mentioned that the ECB’s move precedes potential cuts by the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, providing needed economic stimulus.

Despite a slight increase in inflation in May to 2.6% from 2.4% in April, the ECB decided to reduce rates. This follows Canada’s reduction from 5% to 4.75% after their inflation fell to 2.7%. Sweden and Switzerland have also made similar rate cuts.

Lagarde provided a positive economic outlook for the eurozone but warned of challenges such as geopolitical tensions and climate-related risks that could impact growth. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM, expressed confidence in further ECB rate cuts over the summer or autumn, potentially lowering eurozone rates to 3.5% or less by year-end. She cited sluggish economic recovery, slowing inflation, and easing wage growth as justification for additional cuts.

In the UK, speculation exists that the Bank of England might reduce rates as early as this month, with inflation down to 2.3% from its peak over 11% in late 2022. The International Monetary Fund recommended cutting UK rates from 5.25% to 3.5% by year-end. However, George Godber from Polar Capital suggested that the upcoming UK election could complicate the Bank’s rate decision on June 20, as political considerations might influence the outcome.

The US Federal Reserve is also expected to reduce rates soon, with the current US inflation rate at 3.4%. Godber predicted that the Fed would act before the November election.

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Irish economy expected to grow in next two years

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A prominent think tank, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), has projected solid growth for Ireland’s domestic economy in the next couple of years, driven by decreasing inflation and rising wages. They anticipate a 2.3% growth in modified domestic demand (MDD) for this year, followed by a 2.5% increase next year. MDD is a metric that filters out the influence of multinational corporations on Ireland’s economy. In 2023, MDD only saw a modest 0.5% growth due to factors like inflation and higher interest rates dampening spending and investment.

Despite a strong post-pandemic recovery, Ireland’s economic momentum slowed notably in 2023, partly due to increased inflation which hindered household finances. The ESRI noted a lack of real pay growth during 2022 and 2023. Real pay, adjusted for inflation, is a key indicator of changes in living standards. Both the ESRI and Ireland’s Central Bank anticipate an increase in real pay this year.

Traditionally, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as the primary measure of economic performance; however, Ireland’s GDP is heavily skewed by multinational activities. Official data indicated a 3.2% contraction in Irish GDP in 2023. Usually, Irish GDP overestimates economic growth, but recent trends have shown the opposite, partly due to decreased sales and exports from US pharmaceutical companies’ Irish operations post-pandemic. The ESRI anticipates a recovery in Irish GDP over the next two years, driven by global trade improvements.

The ESRI also underscored the pressing need for Ireland to address well-documented infrastructure challenges, particularly in areas like housing, renewable energy, and public transport. Notably, plans for an underground rail link connecting Dublin Airport to the city center have reached the public planning hearings stage after more than two decades since the project’s inception.

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German train drivers stage longest strike on record

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Train drivers across Germany have initiated a strike, set to endure six days, making it the longest stoppage in their history. The GDL rail drivers’ union called for the walkout, impacting both passenger and goods-train services starting at 02:00 on Wednesday. This move exacerbates an ongoing dispute with the state-owned Deutsche Bahn, leading to the fourth round of strikes since November.

The union’s demands include higher wages to counter inflation and a reduction in the working week from 38 to 35 hours without a salary decrease. Deutsche Bahn has implemented an emergency timetable until the strike concludes at 18:00 on Monday, affecting passenger trains for an unprecedented 136 hours, including a weekend for the first time. The strike has caused significant disruptions, with 80% of long-distance trains canceled and substantial delays in regional and suburban S-Bahn rail services.

The extended industrial action has prompted complaints from the rail company and ministers, asserting its adverse effects on both the German economy and the public. Tanja Gönner, head of the Federation of German Industries, estimated that the six-day strike could cost the economy up to €1bn. Transport Minister Volker Wissing urged the union to seek a compromise through mediation, acknowledging the current deadlock in negotiations.

Amid the strike, a YouGov survey revealed that only 34% of over 4,000 German adults understood the reasons behind the strike, while 59% expressed a lack of understanding. Talks between the GDL union and Deutsche Bahn have been ongoing since November, with the company rejecting the union’s proposal for a three-hour reduction in the working week. Instead, Deutsche Bahn suggested an optional model involving one hour less work with no pay cut or a 2.7% pay raise, an offer rejected by the GDL.

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Maersk cuts 10,000 jobs as shipping demand falls

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One of the world’s largest shipping companies, AP Moller-Maersk, has announced plans to cut an additional 3,500 jobs, following a previous reduction of 6,500 positions earlier in the year. The decision comes as a response to diminished demand and reduced freight rates. Maersk experienced a significant decline in profits, plummeting by 92% during the latest quarter.

The company highlighted the deteriorating prices for sea freight as the primary factor necessitating further job cuts. While the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in demand and shipping costs, the situation has since shifted. The resurgence of inflation and the impact of increased interest rates have dampened consumer spending, leading to decreased demand for shipping services.

Maersk’s chief executive, Vincent Clerc, acknowledged the challenging circumstances, emphasizing the need for cost-saving measures in light of the current industry landscape. Despite the drastic staff reductions, the company aims to save approximately £600m next year.

The recent announcement will bring Maersk’s global workforce below 100,000, with 2,500 of the job cuts expected to take place in the coming months, and the remainder in 2024. The company has refrained from disclosing the specific locations or job roles that will be affected.

The market response to Maersk’s latest developments was negative, with shares in the group declining by 11.1% following the announcement. The company remains cautious about its revenue and profit expectations, anticipating that both figures will likely fall at the lower end of its estimations. Additionally, Maersk warned that global economic slowdown, financial risks, and geopolitical tensions, such as strained relations between China and the US, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, could impede any anticipated improvements in the final quarter of this year and affect volumes in 2024.

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Russia hikes interest rates to 15% as inflation soars

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The Central Bank of Russia has raised its key interest rate to 15% in an effort to tackle inflation and support the struggling rouble, marking the fourth consecutive increase. The unexpected two-percentage-point hike was prompted by the persistently high global inflation rates, partly triggered by Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, which has led to a 6% inflation rate in Russia as of September.

The country has been experiencing escalated government spending directed towards its military efforts, contributing to the recent inflationary pressures. With the latest hike, the Bank of Russia has cumulatively raised the rates by 7.5 percentage points since July, aiming to stabilize inflation at the targeted 4% level. The decision for the emergency rate hike in August was prompted by the rouble’s decline, which fell below 100 against the US dollar, necessitating a tighter monetary policy.

The global supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, coupled with the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have notably impacted food and energy prices, driving the overall inflation up. Additionally, the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine has had adverse effects on the country’s economy, causing a significant depreciation of the rouble. The sanctions have led to constraints on Russia’s trade, with several European countries seeking alternative energy suppliers and implementing measures to limit Russia’s oil export earnings.

Despite the successive rate hikes, there are concerns that Russia may encounter challenges in attracting foreign investment due to the ongoing sanctions. The exclusion of Russia from the Swift international payment system has further added to the economic strain. Nonetheless, the European Commission has affirmed that the sanctions are effective in exerting pressure on Russia.

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Threat to Ships in Ukraine Conflict Causes Soaring Wheat Prices

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Wheat prices on the global markets have experienced a sharp rise following Russia’s declaration that it would consider ships heading to Ukrainian ports as potential military targets. This decision came after Moscow withdrew from a UN agreement that guaranteed safe passage for grain shipments through the Black Sea. In recent nights, Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine’s grain facilities in cities like Odesa. The White House has accused Russia of planning to attack civilian ships and then falsely blaming Ukraine for it. As a result of these developments, European stock exchange wheat prices surged by 8.2% to €253.75 per tonne, with corn prices also rising by 5.4%. US wheat futures recorded their highest daily increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, jumping 8.5%. President Vladimir Putin has expressed willingness to return to the international grain agreement if certain demands, including the lifting of sanctions on Russian grain and fertiliser sales, are met.

Amid these escalating tensions, Russian air strikes continued in Black Sea coastal cities for three consecutive nights, leading to civilian casualties. The attacks have targeted grain export infrastructure and raised concerns about the safety of shipping routes for essential food supplies. Ukraine’s options for exporting grain by rail are limited, with rail capacity smaller than shipping volumes, and some EU countries in Eastern Europe blocking Ukrainian grain to protect their own farmers.

Analysts have warned that Russia’s threatened escalation could disrupt waterborne grain shipments from the Black Sea, impacting both Russian and Ukrainian exports. Some Ukrainian officials have called on the UK, US, France, and Turkey to provide military convoys and air defenses to protect grain ships heading to Odesa.

The situation has raised concerns about potential impacts on global food security and inflation, particularly in developing countries, leading to social instability, food shortages, and increased migration. Critics accuse Russia of using food supplies as a political tool in its conflict with Ukraine.

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Cuba Turns to Longtime Ally Russia Amidst Devastating Fuel Crisis

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Cuba’s current fuel crisis has prompted the country to seek assistance from its historical ally, Russia. Cuban taxi driver Jorge Lloro, who drives a Soviet-era Lada, is reminded of the strong ties between the two nations. During the Cold War, around 100,000 Lada cars were imported to Cuba as a way to circumvent the long-standing US economic embargo. Now, facing a severe fuel shortage and a grim economic outlook, Cuba’s leadership has once again turned to Russia for support.

For drivers like Jorge, maintaining their vehicles has become a constant struggle due to the scarcity and high cost of spare parts. Even obtaining petrol has become a lengthy ordeal, with long queues at petrol pumps. To manage the situation, the state has organized drivers into WhatsApp groups, assigning them numbers and notifying them when it’s their turn to fill up. However, the system has been inefficient and lacking in proper organization and infrastructure, leading to frustration among drivers.

The fuel crisis is just one of the many challenges Cuba has faced recently, including food insecurity, inflation, and electricity blackouts. These longstanding issues stem from government mismanagement and the US economic embargo, aggravated further by the collapse of the tourism industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. Seizing this opportunity, some Russian companies have signed agreements with Cuba to revitalize tourism infrastructure, improve agriculture, and invest in industries such as rum and steel production.

Of particular interest to Jorge and other drivers is an agreement for Russia to supply approximately 30,000 barrels of crude oil per day. This would help compensate for the reduction in oil exports from Venezuela, Cuba’s oil-rich socialist ally, which decreased from 80,000 barrels per day in 2020 to around 55,000. The Cuban state media portrays this cooperation as evidence of the enduring ties between the two nations. However, independent economist Omar Everleny believes that closer relations with Moscow offer only a short-term solution for Cuba.

While Russia’s assistance may stabilize the current crisis, Mr. Everleny points out that Russian firms will expect timely and full payment for their investments, which could potentially burden Cuban families. He warns against relying on a single benefactor, citing historical examples of dependence on Spain, the US, the Soviet Union, and Venezuela. Instead, Everleny suggests that Cuba should develop its own production strategy, with a key role for small and medium-sized Cuban businesses.

As the day outside the petrol station comes to an end, Jorge Lloro manages to fill up his Lada. However, like the Cuban Revolution itself, the country’s situation remains precarious, relying on Russian assistance while desperately needing significant reforms in the years to come.

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“Horrendous new normal”: Millions skip or reduce their calorie intake

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According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, individuals in Britain are being forced to make hard decisions due to extreme food inflation and inadequate public assistance.

According to a charity, millions of people in Britain are being forced to reduce or miss meals due to the rising cost of living. 

According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), it is now the “horrendous new normal” for 5.7 million low-income households to not have enough money for food. 

It said that “exceptionally high food inflation” and little government help were to blame, making it hard for individuals with the lowest incomes to choose how frequently they eat and which items they purchase. 

It was discovered that almost 7 million families were without necessities like food, heat, or even amenities. 

In the meantime, 75% of houses receiving Universal Credit, the UK government’s social security payment, had gone without food or cut back on meals in the previous 30 days. 

The results are released ahead of Wednesday’s fresh inflation statistics. 

Price rises have slowed down—according to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index increased by 8.7% over the past 12 months as opposed to 10.1% in March—but they are still persistently high. 

This is likely to have long-term effects on their family life, money, and health. “The number of low-income households going without necessities, going hungry, and being in arrears has not changed in over a year.”

In April 2023, record food inflation overtook energy prices as the main cause of inflation, reaching 19% during the charity’s poll.

In spite of the fact that Ukraine and Russia are two of the world’s largest producers of wheat, these rises have been attributed to the conflict in the Ukraine, which is also harming crop production. 

According to the JRF, 2.3 million low-income households receiving Universal Credit were compelled to alter their food purchases, including switching to less nutrient-dense options. 

Nearly 1.5 million low-income households—more than four in ten of those receiving Universal Credit—also had a poor diet, which raises the likelihood of deteriorating health in the future. 

The JRF demanded that the government enact a “Essentials Guarantee” to ensure that necessities of existence were covered by public assistance. 

According to Rachelle Earwaker, Senior Economist at the charity, “without this, many families face the grim prospect of trying to catch up but never being able to because they are in a spiral of debt, rising prices, and deteriorating health.”

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