The International Monetary Fund’s upcoming growth forecasts are expected to show that the global economy remains resilient to trade disruptions, with overall performance still “fairly strong,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with Reuters. Speaking during a visit to Kyiv, Georgieva indicated the IMF could slightly raise its projections again, following a recent upgrade by the World Bank.

In its October outlook, the IMF lifted its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, citing a smaller-than-expected drag from U.S. tariffs, while keeping its 2026 estimate at 3.1%. Georgieva said the January update, due on January 19, would likely reinforce the message that trade shocks have not derailed global growth, even though risks remain tilted to the downside.

She cautioned that geopolitical tensions, rapid technological shifts and heavy investment in artificial intelligence pose potential threats if productivity gains fail to materialise. Georgieva also warned that many countries have not built sufficient financial buffers to handle future shocks, noting that the IMF is already running 50 lending programmes and may see demand rise if global conditions worsen.

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