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France is preparing to host the G7 Summit in Evian-les-Bains from June 15–17, with the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine expected to dominate discussions. French President Emmanuel Macron has crafted a carefully balanced agenda aimed at maintaining unity among G7 leaders and avoiding tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump. Leaders from Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt, have also been invited due to their involvement in regional security and mediation efforts.

A key focus will be the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East. Diplomats believe the atmosphere of the summit could depend heavily on whether Washington secures progress with Tehran before the meeting. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to push for stronger Western support as negotiations with Russia remain stalled and Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian military and energy targets.

Beyond security concerns, G7 leaders will discuss economic challenges such as critical mineral supply chains, global trade imbalances, and reducing dependence on China. France has also encouraged broader discussions involving countries such as India, Brazil, Kenya, and South Korea. Rather than issuing a broad final communiqué, the summit is expected to produce targeted agreements on issues including critical minerals, migration, and international security cooperation.

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Zara owner Inditex has reassured investors with a strong start to the summer season, reporting currency-adjusted sales growth of 11.5% in May, well above analysts’ expectations of 8%. The performance comes despite weaker consumer confidence and economic uncertainty linked to rising inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. The retailer’s shares climbed as much as 5% following the announcement.

During the February-to-April quarter, Inditex recorded sales of €8.75 billion, representing an 8.8% increase on a currency-adjusted basis. The company also improved profitability, with gross margin rising to 61.2% from 60.6% a year earlier. Executives said the group has successfully adapted its supply chain to manage disruptions in global shipping and transportation caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Inditex remains optimistic about future growth, particularly in the United States, its second-largest market after Spain. The company said sales growth is being driven mainly by higher product volumes rather than price increases, while investments in larger stores and strategic expansions continue to attract customers. Inditex maintained its full-year outlook, including stable gross margins, a 5% increase in retail space, and capital expenditure of €2.3 billion.

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The U.S. dollar is projected to weaken over the long term due to unsustainable fiscal debt and trade imbalances in the world’s largest economy, according to Patrick Thomson, EMEA CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management. Speaking at an International Capital Markets Association conference in London, Thomson noted that while the dominance of U.S. Treasuries remains intact, fixed-income investors are increasingly concerned about the long-term sustainability of elevated U.S. debt levels. Although the dollar recently gained nearly 2% as a safe-haven asset following the outbreak of the Iran war, it experienced sharp declines last year driven by U.S. policy uncertainty and the implementation of “Liberation Day” tariffs.

This shifting dynamic has positioned Europe as a major beneficiary, with investors actively seeking diversification through the euro and Chinese yuan. Despite economic challenges brought on by the regional conflict, JPMorgan Asset Management has reported substantial business growth in Europe, now managing over a trillion dollars in assets. This influx of capital is being driven by increased fiscal spending in Germany, a strategic push by policymakers to mobilize household savings, and a renewed appeal for European companies and investment opportunities as portfolio diversifiers.

However, financial experts emphasize that Europe must implement critical reforms to effectively compete with the United States. Thomson pointed out that unlocking retail bank deposits and encouraging individual market participation represents a massive opportunity to drive new market issuance and demand. Echoing this sentiment, Euroclear CEO Valerie Urbain stated that for Europe to truly rival the U.S. financial landscape, it must develop deeper, more integrated capital markets by actively attracting a larger volume of both investors and issuers.

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Finance leaders from the Group of Seven stressed the urgent need to reduce the economic fallout of the ongoing Middle East conflict, warning that a prolonged war could weigh heavily on global growth. Meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group spring gatherings in Washington, officials also reaffirmed the importance of working toward a lasting peace.

The conflict was one of the top issues discussed by finance ministers and central bank governors, alongside concerns about securing supply chains for critical minerals. The group highlighted that disruptions from geopolitical tensions could further strain global markets and economic stability if not addressed promptly.

In addition, G7 officials reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine amid ongoing Russian aggression. The discussions, led under France’s G7 presidency, underscored a broader effort to manage geopolitical risks while safeguarding the global economy from escalating shocks.

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Inflation increased to at least 2.5% across four German states in March, driven largely by rising energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, annual inflation climbed to 2.7% from 1.8% in February. Similar increases were recorded in Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Lower Saxony, signalling a likely nationwide rise in inflation figures expected later in the day.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predict Germany’s harmonised inflation rate will reach 2.8% in March, up from 2.0% the previous month. Analysts warn that while energy costs are currently the main driver, broader price increases may follow. Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said higher transport costs and potential fertiliser shortages could push food prices higher, with inflation possibly exceeding 3% if the conflict continues.

A survey by the Ifo institute showed German companies increasingly expect to raise prices due to rising production and transport expenses. The data comes ahead of eurozone inflation figures, with markets anticipating further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank. Investors now expect up to three interest rate hikes this year as policymakers respond to mounting inflation pressures.

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British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will urge G7 counterparts to avoid unilateral trade measures while the Iran war continues, warning that such actions could threaten global energy security. Speaking at a meeting with finance and energy ministers, she stressed that collective action is crucial to maintain resilience and avoid shifting pressure onto partners.

Reeves emphasized that protectionism and new trade barriers could disrupt supply chains, raise costs, and exacerbate the economic fallout from the conflict. She called for cooperation to ensure the flow of energy and goods and to help reduce bills over time.

The ongoing war in Iran, initiated by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, has already caused thousands of casualties and triggered unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets, affecting economies worldwide.

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The International Monetary Fund’s upcoming growth forecasts are expected to show that the global economy remains resilient to trade disruptions, with overall performance still “fairly strong,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with Reuters. Speaking during a visit to Kyiv, Georgieva indicated the IMF could slightly raise its projections again, following a recent upgrade by the World Bank.

In its October outlook, the IMF lifted its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, citing a smaller-than-expected drag from U.S. tariffs, while keeping its 2026 estimate at 3.1%. Georgieva said the January update, due on January 19, would likely reinforce the message that trade shocks have not derailed global growth, even though risks remain tilted to the downside.

She cautioned that geopolitical tensions, rapid technological shifts and heavy investment in artificial intelligence pose potential threats if productivity gains fail to materialise. Georgieva also warned that many countries have not built sufficient financial buffers to handle future shocks, noting that the IMF is already running 50 lending programmes and may see demand rise if global conditions worsen.

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One of the world’s largest shipping companies, AP Moller-Maersk, has announced plans to cut an additional 3,500 jobs, following a previous reduction of 6,500 positions earlier in the year. The decision comes as a response to diminished demand and reduced freight rates. Maersk experienced a significant decline in profits, plummeting by 92% during the latest quarter.

The company highlighted the deteriorating prices for sea freight as the primary factor necessitating further job cuts. While the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in demand and shipping costs, the situation has since shifted. The resurgence of inflation and the impact of increased interest rates have dampened consumer spending, leading to decreased demand for shipping services.

Maersk’s chief executive, Vincent Clerc, acknowledged the challenging circumstances, emphasizing the need for cost-saving measures in light of the current industry landscape. Despite the drastic staff reductions, the company aims to save approximately £600m next year.

The recent announcement will bring Maersk’s global workforce below 100,000, with 2,500 of the job cuts expected to take place in the coming months, and the remainder in 2024. The company has refrained from disclosing the specific locations or job roles that will be affected.

The market response to Maersk’s latest developments was negative, with shares in the group declining by 11.1% following the announcement. The company remains cautious about its revenue and profit expectations, anticipating that both figures will likely fall at the lower end of its estimations. Additionally, Maersk warned that global economic slowdown, financial risks, and geopolitical tensions, such as strained relations between China and the US, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, could impede any anticipated improvements in the final quarter of this year and affect volumes in 2024.

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