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EU Parliament Faces Tense Vote on Von der Leyen’s Second Term

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On Thursday, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are set to decide whether Ursula von der Leyen will serve a second term as European Commission president. Despite her recent efforts to garner support, the outcome of the vote, scheduled for 13:00 in Brussels (11:00 GMT), remains uncertain.

Von der Leyen was officially nominated by European leaders at a June summit in Brussels, despite opposition from Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who abstained and criticized the exclusion of certain parties from the decision-making process.

Securing 361 votes is crucial for von der Leyen’s reconfirmation. While support from her center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats, and the liberal Renew group is expected, the secret ballot nature allows MEPs to vote based on personal rather than party lines.

Several Irish MEPs from centrist parties plan to vote against von der Leyen due to her stance on the Gaza conflict. Some French MEPs within her own EPP group have also expressed dissent.

To secure votes, von der Leyen has conducted private meetings with various parliamentary groups, with mixed success. Left-wing MEPs have decided against her due to concerns over military spending, while she has garnered tentative support from some right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) members.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni, leading the ECR, is awaiting von der Leyen’s address before deciding how to instruct her 24 Italian MEPs. Reports suggest she may endorse von der Leyen in exchange for a senior Commission role for Italy.

The newly formed Patriots for Europe, led by Hungary’s Viktor Orban and including far-right leaders from France, Austria, and the Netherlands, has refused to support von der Leyen.

If von der Leyen fails to secure MEPs’ approval, EU leaders will need to propose a new candidate, potentially restarting the selection process.

Von der Leyen initially took office in a close vote five years ago, overcoming political deadlock among EU leaders.

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Von der Leyen Nominated for Second Term as EU Commission President

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EU leaders have nominated Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission head, for a second five-year term during a summit in Brussels. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been selected as the EU’s next foreign affairs chief, and former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa has been chosen as the next chairman of EU summits. All three candidates are from centrist, pro-EU factions.

The European Parliament will vote on the nominations of Ms. von der Leyen and Ms. Kallas. Von der Leyen is from Germany’s centre-right, Costa is a socialist, and Kallas is a liberal. This leadership package represents continuity for the EU amid geopolitical uncertainty, despite a recent surge in support for hard-right parties in the European Parliament elections.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has shown resistance, stating that the plans ignore the successes of hard-right parties like her own. Meloni, who heads the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc, abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas. Despite the ECR becoming the third largest group in the European Parliament, Meloni was not included in the nomination discussions.

Meloni expressed frustration, arguing that European voters had asked for a different direction. Without naming names, she criticized those who believe in oligarchy as the only acceptable form of democracy.

Von der Leyen will need 361 votes from the European Parliament for confirmation. Support from the centre-right European People’s Party, liberals, and social democrats could give her enough backing, but it will be close. Diplomats suggest that von der Leyen might seek Meloni’s support by offering Italy a powerful commission post.

Von der Leyen expressed gratitude for her nomination and highlighted the importance of supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, a task that may become more complex if Donald Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election.

Kallas, known for her strong support of Ukraine and criticism of the Kremlin, acknowledged the significant responsibility of her new role. Some critics are concerned that her firm stance on Russia could pose challenges.

Costa praised his colleagues and emphasized the importance of European unity and resilience. He will replace Belgium’s Charles Michel, and Kallas will succeed Spain’s Josep Borrell.

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Macron’s Election Gamble: The Fate of French Democracy at Stake

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Two neighboring countries are approaching unexpected elections, with both governments expected to fall. Political tensions have strained relationships among families and friends. Despite significant issues in the UK election, the stakes are higher in France, where not just a government or leader is at risk, but the political system itself. Unlike the UK, which is at the end of a political cycle and where calling an early election was rational for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, France faces uncertainty.

President Macron called a snap election after a significant defeat by the far right in the European parliament elections. His aim was to regain a centrist majority in the National Assembly, but polls indicate the far-right National Rally (RN) remains ahead, with a left-wing alliance, led by France Unbowed (LFI), potentially coming second. The likely outcomes are either an RN majority or a hung parliament, both of which pose significant risks: a sovereign debt crisis, street violence, and institutional collapse.

Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez points out that France’s Fifth Republic was designed to handle crises, but the current instability and the president’s own confusion could lead to a breakdown of institutions. Across France, there is an awareness of the country’s precarious situation.

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, could become the next Prime Minister, adding to the political tension. Macron’s invocation of potential “civil war” and his attempt to use fear to drive voters towards the center is seen as dangerous and could incite hate and violence. The government is preparing for possible violent protests during the election rounds on June 30 and July 7. The far-left LFI’s support base in immigrant-heavy areas and its stance on Gaza further complicate matters.

Political instability could also affect the upcoming Olympic Games, which begin shortly after the election. Baverez draws a parallel between France’s current situation and the populist moments in the US and UK a decade ago, suggesting that France’s institutions and the euro previously shielded it from such upheaval. However, with the traditional method of managing social peace through public debt no longer viable, France now faces its own populist challenge.

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Cypriot YouTuber Fidias Elected as Independent MEP

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A popular YouTuber from Cyprus, Fidias Panayiotou, has been elected as an independent Member of the European Parliament (MEP). Known for his unconventional online antics, including attempting to hug 100 celebrities and spending a week in a coffin, the 24-year-old Panayiotou has over 2.6 million subscribers on YouTube. Despite having no prior political experience, he secured 19.4% of the vote, the third-largest share.

Mr. Panayiotou expressed his surprise at the election outcome, calling it a “miracle,” and emphasized that political parties need to modernize and listen to the people. Last year, he faced backlash in Japan for a video where he dodged train fares and a hotel bill by hiding in toilets and pretending to be ill, which amassed millions of views.

Celebrating his win at Eleftheria Square in Nicosia, Panayiotou declared that they were making history both in Cyprus and internationally. Initially, he ran for election to inspire youth engagement in politics, despite his own admission of limited political knowledge and never having voted before. His candidacy significantly boosted voter turnout in Cyprus, rising to nearly 59% from 45% in the 2019 elections, partly attributed to what analysts dubbed the “Fidias factor.”

Exit poll analysis by Philenews revealed that Panayiotou garnered 40% of the votes from the 18-24 age group and 28% from the 25-34 age group. The six Cypriot MEPs elected included representatives from the conservative DISY (25%), the communist party AKEL (22%), the ultranationalist ELAM (11%), and the centrist party Diko (10%).

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Giorgia Meloni Opens Up as Italy Votes in EU Elections

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Italians have begun voting on the third of four days of European elections taking place across 27 EU nations. Although these votes are for the next European Parliament, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hopes the outcome will strengthen her position in Italian politics. She has even encouraged voters to “just write Giorgia” on their ballots.

Most EU countries are voting on Sunday after several weeks of turmoil during which two European leaders and other politicians were physically attacked. On Friday evening, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was assaulted in the street in Copenhagen ahead of Sunday’s Danish vote. She sustained minor whiplash, according to her office, and a suspect has been detained.

European leaders have expressed their shock at the latest attack amid elections involving around 373 million European voters. Last month, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt and was only recently discharged from the hospital. Several German politicians have also been targeted.

While these elections are intended to be separate from national politics, the reality is often different, especially in Italy. Meloni, who leads the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), was appointed prime minister in 2022. She has taken the unusual step of putting her name at the top of her party’s ballot, despite having no plans to take a seat in the European Parliament.

Since becoming prime minister in 2022, Meloni has enjoyed steady poll ratings, helped by a fragmented centrist and left-wing opposition and the decline of her junior coalition partner, Matteo Salvini’s League party. To counter this trend, Salvini has shifted his party’s rhetoric further to the right. The League’s election posters, which criticize EU-backed initiatives like electric cars and tethered caps on plastic bottles, have drawn both ridicule and attention.

Salvini’s lead candidate, Roberto Vannacci, has also drawn attention. The army general, dismissed after self-publishing a book with homophobic and racist views, has doubled down on these views since becoming a League candidate. His messages are frequently amplified by the media, which could translate into votes for the League. If not, Salvini’s leadership could be in jeopardy.

Similarly, the left-wing Democratic Party (PD) leader Elly Schlein must match the 19% vote share from the 2019 elections to maintain her position. Further to the left, Ilaria Salis, a self-described antifascist activist detained in Hungary since 2023, is running on the Left/Greens platform.

These European elections hold significant importance. While the Netherlands voted on Thursday, with exit polls suggesting a tight race between a left-green alliance and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, other countries like Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Latvia, and Malta are voting across the weekend. Germany is voting on Sunday, with the center-right CDU/CSU expected to surpass Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is competing for second place with the Socialist party, trailing Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Macron, warning of the threat to Europe from the surge of the right, has called for a high turnout. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, recovering from surgery after an assassination attempt, has recently criticized Slovakia’s liberal opposition. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, opposing EU support for Ukraine, warned that Europe is nearing a point of no return in preventing conflict from spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Italy’s polls will be the last to close at 23:00 (21:00 GMT) on Sunday, with initial projections combining provisional results and estimates expected shortly after.

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Greenlash: Rising Opposition to EU Green Policies Amid Economic Strains

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Across Europe, there’s a significant pushback against green policies, termed a “greenlash.” This contrasts starkly with the sentiment during the last European elections five years ago, when especially young voters were fervently demanding action against climate change.

The current resistance is fueled by soaring energy prices, partly due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a broader cost of living crisis, prompting many Europeans to reconsider the move away from fossil fuels. Additionally, farmers across Europe have staged roadblocks in protest against environmental reforms.

This shift could pose a serious challenge for the EU’s Green parties in the upcoming elections from June 6-9. The Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA), currently the fourth-largest group in the European Parliament, might see a 30% reduction in their seats according to most polls. Terry Reintke, the Greens’ lead candidate, warns that if right-wing groups gain more influence, they could obstruct substantial parts of the parliament’s agenda.

Such an outcome could significantly affect the implementation of the EU’s Green Deal, part of the Climate Law aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Some measures have already been enacted, like the package to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% of 1990 levels by 2030, which includes a contentious ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2035. However, many policies essential for meeting 2040 targets still need to be agreed upon, and existing directives could be modified under sufficient political pressure.

Right-wing parties across Europe have quickly responded to public discontent, balancing costly decarbonization processes and green investments against the cost of living crisis. In Italy, Matteo Salvini of the far-right League criticizes the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel cars, viewing it as a “gift” to the Chinese electric car industry. Hungary’s Viktor Orban supports farmers protesting in Brussels and accuses European leaders of ignoring ordinary people.

In Germany, backlash over plans to ban new oil and gas heating systems almost toppled the coalition government, leading to a watered-down policy. The far-right AfD, decrying an “eco-dictatorship,” is challenging for second place in the polls. Similarly, in the Netherlands, government plans to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions sparked farmer protests and boosted the Farmer-Citizens Movement (BBB), now set to join a coalition with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, which aims to roll back green policies.

Sweden, once a leader in climate action, has seen its government, supported by the far-right Sweden Democrats, criticized for policies that could increase emissions. In Spain, the far-right Vox party denies human-caused climate change and seeks to undo recent green policies.

Hannah Neumann, a German MEP from the Greens, refutes the radical right’s narrative that economic competitiveness and climate protection are mutually exclusive, emphasizing that the global shift towards net zero includes major economies like the US and China. She warns that the EU risks falling behind if it slows its green transition.

However, center-right parties also challenge the speed and cost of this transition. The European People’s Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament, has long opposed the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel cars. Farmers’ protests have also led to reversals of Green Deal policies, such as scrapping a proposal to halve pesticide use.

Jessica Polfjärd, an MEP from Sweden’s Moderate Party, acknowledges the urgency of climate issues but stresses the need for realistic and balanced policies. She argues that overly ambitious green policies have not provided industries with adequate tools for the transition and that their impacts need thorough assessment.

Despite the backlash, climate change remains a significant concern for European voters. A recent Eurobarometer survey found that 78% of respondents feel environmental issues directly impact their lives, and 84% believe EU environmental legislation is necessary. Yet, only 58% want to speed up the transition to renewable energy, with cost of living concerns dominating the current campaign landscape, potentially leading to significant losses for the European Greens compared to five years ago.

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German far right in disarray after AfD Nazi remark

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Maximilian Krah, a prominent far-right German politician from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), announced he would scale back his campaign efforts for the upcoming EU elections while remaining the party’s lead candidate. This decision followed a controversial interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, where Krah remarked that not all SS members were automatically “criminals” and emphasized assessing individual culpability. He referenced Günter Grass, the German novelist who served in the Waffen SS, to support his point.

The SS, or Schutzstaffel, was a Nazi paramilitary group notorious for its central role in the Holocaust and other war crimes. Krah’s comments provoked a strong reaction, leading France’s far-right National Rally (RN) to sever ties with the AfD in the European Parliament. RN leader Marine Le Pen called for a “cordon sanitaire” to distance her party from the AfD, stating the urgency of this separation due to the extremity of Krah’s views.

The relationship between RN and AfD had already been strained following a secret meeting involving AfD members discussing the mass deportations of non-ethnic Germans. Marine Le Pen had previously condemned such ideas.

Facing mounting pressures ahead of the EU elections in June, Krah declared on social media that he would step back from public campaign appearances and resign from the federal executive board to preserve party unity. This decision comes amid various scandals, including the arrest of one of his staffers for alleged espionage for China and an ongoing investigation into Krah over purported payments from Russia and China, which he denies. Despite these controversies, the AfD remains a significant political force, polling second or third nationally and leading in some states set for local elections later this year.

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Germany spying: Far-right party aide held in China spy probe

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Prosecutors in Germany have apprehended an individual suspected of spying for China, who was identified as Jian G, 43, allegedly working as an assistant to AfD MEP Maximilian Krah. Jian G is accused of passing information about the European Parliament to Chinese intelligence and monitoring Chinese opposition figures in Germany. The timing of these allegations, just before the European Parliament elections, is sensitive for the AfD.

Maximilian Krah stated that he learned of his aide’s arrest through the media and emphasized that if the accusations were proven, the employment would be terminated immediately. The AfD expressed concern over the reports and awaited further investigations.

German officials, including Interior Minister Nancy Faeser and Justice Minister Marco Buschmann, deemed the allegations gravely serious, emphasizing the necessity of severe consequences if proven true.

China’s foreign affairs ministry dismissed the arrest as unfounded speculation aimed at defaming China. Prosecutors indicated that Jian G was scheduled to appear before an investigating judge soon.

Meanwhile, another separate incident involved the arrest of two men and a woman suspected of spying for China, unrelated to Jian G’s case. This group allegedly obtained military technology information in Germany for China.

These developments occurred shortly after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent visit to Beijing, where discussions with President Xi Jinping touched upon various issues, including the conflict in Ukraine.

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EU approves major overhaul of migration rules

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After years of negotiations, the European Parliament has approved a significant reform aimed at tightening the EU’s migration and asylum regulations. The EU Asylum and Migration Pact, which has been in development since 2015, is set to become effective in two years’ time. Its objectives include expediting the asylum process, enhancing the repatriation of irregular migrants to their home countries, and establishing a system of shared responsibility among EU member states for asylum seekers.

Last year, there was a notable increase in illegal border crossings within the EU, prompting the need for such reforms. The pact, though met with some opposition from certain member states, is expected to gain full approval by the end of April through majority voting.

Under the proposed rules, EU countries will be obligated to either accept a quota of migrants from frontline countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain, or provide additional financial aid or resources. Additionally, the pact emphasizes swift processing of asylum claims, particularly those deemed to have low chances of approval, and aims to reach decisions within a maximum of 12 weeks. Forcible returns of rejected asylum seekers to their home countries would also need to occur within the same timeframe.

The pact introduces stricter pre-entry screening procedures within seven days of arrival, including biometric data collection for migrants aged six and above. It also establishes mechanisms to address sudden influxes of migrants.

The pact received support from the two main political groups in the European Parliament, although it faced opposition from some left-wing and far-right factions, as well as NGOs. Critics argue that the agreement may lead to increased suffering for asylum seekers, particularly those with low chances of acceptance, who might undergo processing on border islands or in detention facilities with limited access to fair procedures.

Despite its imperfections, many MEPs saw the pact as a workable compromise, acknowledging its significance in addressing the challenges of migration within the EU. However, concerns remain regarding the potential consequences of expedited processes and increased detention.

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Alexei Navalny’s funeral to be held on Friday in Moscow

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Alexei Navalny’s burial is confirmed to take place at Borisovskoye Cemetery in Moscow on Friday, following a farewell ceremony at a local church. Yulia Navalnaya, his widow, expressed uncertainty about the funeral’s peacefulness and the potential for police interference.

Navalny, a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin, died unexpectedly in a Siberian prison earlier this month, sparking accusations against the Russian president from his widow and many world leaders. Details surrounding Navalny’s death remain scant, with Russian authorities initially resisting releasing his body to his family.

Funeral arrangements faced obstacles, with some funeral homes refusing service due to the deceased’s identity. Yulia Navalnaya addressed the European Parliament, criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine and advocating for a more effective strategy against Putin.

The funeral date was adjusted due to logistical challenges, with Navalny’s team urging attendees to arrive early. Security concerns loom over the event, given recent arrests of those paying tribute to Navalny across Russia. Allegations surfaced of a potential prisoner swap involving Navalny, but the Kremlin denies any knowledge of such arrangements.

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