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‘Virtually certain’ that 2023 will be warmest year after October record

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New data strongly suggests that 2023 will undoubtedly be the warmest year on record, marked by deadly heatwaves, floods, and fires. The EU’s climate change service reports that global average air temperatures in October 2023 were 0.4C higher than the previous record set in 2019, making it the fifth consecutive month of record warmth. Researchers predict that extreme global temperatures will persist into 2024.

This year has already seen numerous records shattered, with July potentially being the hottest month in 120,000 years and September surpassing the previous record by an astonishing 0.5C. Although October wasn’t as scorching as September, it still set a new record for the month by a significant margin of 1.7C compared to the pre-industrial average.

Multiple scientific organizations, including Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, assert that there is a more than 99% probability that 2023 will go down as the warmest year on record. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth emphasizes the persistent trend of record-setting months, indicating no sign of reversal.

While the scientific implications of these unprecedented temperatures are alarming, the real-world consequences are even more concerning. Dr. Friederike Otto from Imperial College London highlights the human suffering, including thousands of deaths, displacement, and livelihood losses, caused by extreme heatwaves and droughts exacerbated by these extraordinary temperatures.

The primary driver of this heatwave is the continuous release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. This year’s rise in temperatures is further compounded by the emergence of an intense El Niño event, causing warm waters to surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean and release additional heat into the atmosphere. Researchers are still uncertain about the nature of this particular El Niño event, as it appears to deviate from previous occurrences and may be contributing to greater ocean surface heating compared to past El Niño events.

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Record-Breaking Ocean Heat: Alarming Consequences for the Planet

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The Earth’s oceans have experienced their highest recorded temperatures ever, absorbing warmth due to climate change, which has concerning implications for the planet’s well-being. According to the EU’s climate change service Copernicus, the average daily global sea surface temperature surpassed the 2016 record this week, reaching 20.96°C, well above the typical level for this time of year.

Oceans play a crucial role in regulating the climate, absorbing heat, generating half of the Earth’s oxygen, and influencing weather patterns. However, warmer waters have a reduced capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, leading to increased levels of the planet-warming gas in the atmosphere. Additionally, higher temperatures can hasten the melting of glaciers, contributing to rising sea levels.

The impact of hotter oceans and heatwaves extends to marine species, causing fish and whales to seek cooler waters and disrupting the food chain. Predatory animals like sharks may become more aggressive in these conditions. Furthermore, marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and fatalities in various regions, highlighting the stress that human activities, including pollution and overfishing, place on the oceans.

Scientists express concern about the timing of this record-breaking heat, noting that March should be the warmest month for oceans globally, not August. They attribute the increasing ocean temperatures to climate change, as the seas absorb most of the heat from greenhouse gas emissions. The burning of fossil fuels exacerbates this situation, prolonging the time required to stabilize ocean temperatures.

The current broken temperature record follows a series of marine heatwaves in different parts of the world this year, including the UK, North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Gulf of Mexico. The frequency and intensity of these heatwaves have been on the rise, with marine heatwaves doubling between 1982 and 2016, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

While air temperatures have risen significantly in recent years, oceans take longer to warm up due to their higher heat-absorption capacity. However, it appears that ocean temperatures are now catching up, possibly due to stored heat from ocean depths surfacing, potentially linked to El Niño events.

Though scientists have expected sea surface warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, they are still investigating the specific reasons behind the recent surge in temperatures, which have far exceeded previous records.

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Europe heatwave: Hot weather sweeps across southern Europe

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A scorching heatwave continues to affect several European countries, with temperatures expected to break records in the coming days. Parts of Spain, France, Greece, Croatia, Turkey, and Italy may experience temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F), with Italy potentially reaching up to 48°C (118.4°F), which could be the highest ever recorded in Europe, according to the European Space Agency. A red alert warning has been issued for 10 cities, including Florence and Rome. Last month was reported as the hottest June on record by the EU’s climate monitoring service Copernicus.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that extreme weather events resulting from climate change are becoming the new norm. While periods of intense heat are part of natural weather patterns, they are increasingly becoming more frequent, intense, and prolonged globally due to global warming.

The heatwave has impacted tourists in Europe, with visitors experiencing symptoms such as nausea and dizziness in Athens. Efforts have been made to provide information on air-conditioned places for people to seek relief from the heat. Tragically, a man in Italy died from heat-related causes, and several visitors, including a British man in Rome, have suffered from heatstroke.

Authorities are advising people to stay hydrated by drinking at least two liters of water per day and to avoid dehydrating beverages like coffee and alcohol. Tourists in Rome expressed surprise at the extreme heat and stated they were trying to avoid going out during the hottest hours of the day. Some individuals emphasized the need for collective action to address climate change, urging governments and individuals to take responsibility and make changes such as reducing plastic usage, limiting air conditioning, and using electric cars.

The current heatwave, named Cerberus after the mythical three-headed dog from Dante’s Inferno, is expected to continue intensifying in the coming days. Spain has already experienced temperatures reaching 45°C (113°F), and the European Space Agency has predicted potential temperatures of 48°C (118.4°F) in Sicily and Sardinia, which could be the hottest ever recorded in Europe.

Additionally, other regions outside Europe, including parts of Canada, the United States, India, and China, have also witnessed record-breaking temperatures this summer. Sea temperatures in the Atlantic have reached record highs, while Antarctic sea ice is at its lowest extent on record. Furthermore, the development of El Niño, a weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, is expected to contribute to rising temperatures by an average of 0.2°C, exacerbating the effects of climate change, which has already increased average temperatures worldwide by approximately 1.1°C.

To put the current heatwave in historical context, scientists can analyze air bubbles trapped in ancient Antarctic ice, which suggests that the first week of July was the hottest week in around 125,000 years. During the Eemian period, which occurred over a million years ago, temperatures were estimated to be significantly higher, resulting in hippos inhabiting the Thames and sea levels being approximately 5 meters (16.4 feet) higher.

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