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Italy Cuts Growth Forecast, Sees Economy Expanding 0.7% Through 2027

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Italy’s national statistics bureau ISTAT has slightly lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026, projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.7%, down from the 0.8% estimate issued in December. The agency also expects the economy to expand by 0.7% in 2027, supported by stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter, when GDP rose 0.3% from the previous three months.

Despite the downgrade, ISTAT’s outlook remains somewhat more optimistic than forecasts from the European Commission, IMF, OECD and the Bank of Italy, all of which expect growth between 0.5% and 0.6% over the next two years. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government also revised its projections lower in April, citing rising energy costs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

ISTAT warned that geopolitical uncertainty continues to pose risks to the economy, particularly developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. The statistics bureau also improved its labour market outlook, forecasting an average unemployment rate of 5.5% this year and in 2027, lower than its previous estimate of 6.1%. Italy’s economy grew 0.5% in 2025, marking a third consecutive year of growth below 1%.

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Irish economy expected to grow in next two years

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A prominent think tank, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), has projected solid growth for Ireland’s domestic economy in the next couple of years, driven by decreasing inflation and rising wages. They anticipate a 2.3% growth in modified domestic demand (MDD) for this year, followed by a 2.5% increase next year. MDD is a metric that filters out the influence of multinational corporations on Ireland’s economy. In 2023, MDD only saw a modest 0.5% growth due to factors like inflation and higher interest rates dampening spending and investment.

Despite a strong post-pandemic recovery, Ireland’s economic momentum slowed notably in 2023, partly due to increased inflation which hindered household finances. The ESRI noted a lack of real pay growth during 2022 and 2023. Real pay, adjusted for inflation, is a key indicator of changes in living standards. Both the ESRI and Ireland’s Central Bank anticipate an increase in real pay this year.

Traditionally, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as the primary measure of economic performance; however, Ireland’s GDP is heavily skewed by multinational activities. Official data indicated a 3.2% contraction in Irish GDP in 2023. Usually, Irish GDP overestimates economic growth, but recent trends have shown the opposite, partly due to decreased sales and exports from US pharmaceutical companies’ Irish operations post-pandemic. The ESRI anticipates a recovery in Irish GDP over the next two years, driven by global trade improvements.

The ESRI also underscored the pressing need for Ireland to address well-documented infrastructure challenges, particularly in areas like housing, renewable energy, and public transport. Notably, plans for an underground rail link connecting Dublin Airport to the city center have reached the public planning hearings stage after more than two decades since the project’s inception.

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