Gold is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, with futures in New York surging nearly 71% in 2025. Prices have climbed from around $2,640 an ounce at the start of the year to above $4,500, driven by global uncertainty ranging from trade distortions and geopolitical conflicts to inflation risks and currency volatility. Analysts say investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven, echoing conditions last seen during the late-1970s energy crisis under former US president Jimmy Carter.

Expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar have further boosted gold’s appeal, as lower bond yields make non-yielding assets more attractive. Gold’s gains have far outpaced equities, with the S&P 500 up about 18% this year. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase expect prices to continue rising, forecasting gold could cross $5,000 an ounce in 2026 if current trends persist.

A key driver behind gold’s rally has been aggressive buying by central banks, led by China, as countries seek to reduce dependence on the US dollar and Treasury assets. Central banks have added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the past three years, well above historical averages. The surge has also lifted other precious metals, with silver, platinum and palladium posting sharp gains, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge in an increasingly uncertain global financial landscape.

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