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On Thursday, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are set to decide whether Ursula von der Leyen will serve a second term as European Commission president. Despite her recent efforts to garner support, the outcome of the vote, scheduled for 13:00 in Brussels (11:00 GMT), remains uncertain.

Von der Leyen was officially nominated by European leaders at a June summit in Brussels, despite opposition from Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who abstained and criticized the exclusion of certain parties from the decision-making process.

Securing 361 votes is crucial for von der Leyen’s reconfirmation. While support from her center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats, and the liberal Renew group is expected, the secret ballot nature allows MEPs to vote based on personal rather than party lines.

Several Irish MEPs from centrist parties plan to vote against von der Leyen due to her stance on the Gaza conflict. Some French MEPs within her own EPP group have also expressed dissent.

To secure votes, von der Leyen has conducted private meetings with various parliamentary groups, with mixed success. Left-wing MEPs have decided against her due to concerns over military spending, while she has garnered tentative support from some right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) members.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni, leading the ECR, is awaiting von der Leyen’s address before deciding how to instruct her 24 Italian MEPs. Reports suggest she may endorse von der Leyen in exchange for a senior Commission role for Italy.

The newly formed Patriots for Europe, led by Hungary’s Viktor Orban and including far-right leaders from France, Austria, and the Netherlands, has refused to support von der Leyen.

If von der Leyen fails to secure MEPs’ approval, EU leaders will need to propose a new candidate, potentially restarting the selection process.

Von der Leyen initially took office in a close vote five years ago, overcoming political deadlock among EU leaders.

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EU leaders have nominated Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission head, for a second five-year term during a summit in Brussels. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been selected as the EU’s next foreign affairs chief, and former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa has been chosen as the next chairman of EU summits. All three candidates are from centrist, pro-EU factions.

The European Parliament will vote on the nominations of Ms. von der Leyen and Ms. Kallas. Von der Leyen is from Germany’s centre-right, Costa is a socialist, and Kallas is a liberal. This leadership package represents continuity for the EU amid geopolitical uncertainty, despite a recent surge in support for hard-right parties in the European Parliament elections.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has shown resistance, stating that the plans ignore the successes of hard-right parties like her own. Meloni, who heads the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc, abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas. Despite the ECR becoming the third largest group in the European Parliament, Meloni was not included in the nomination discussions.

Meloni expressed frustration, arguing that European voters had asked for a different direction. Without naming names, she criticized those who believe in oligarchy as the only acceptable form of democracy.

Von der Leyen will need 361 votes from the European Parliament for confirmation. Support from the centre-right European People’s Party, liberals, and social democrats could give her enough backing, but it will be close. Diplomats suggest that von der Leyen might seek Meloni’s support by offering Italy a powerful commission post.

Von der Leyen expressed gratitude for her nomination and highlighted the importance of supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, a task that may become more complex if Donald Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election.

Kallas, known for her strong support of Ukraine and criticism of the Kremlin, acknowledged the significant responsibility of her new role. Some critics are concerned that her firm stance on Russia could pose challenges.

Costa praised his colleagues and emphasized the importance of European unity and resilience. He will replace Belgium’s Charles Michel, and Kallas will succeed Spain’s Josep Borrell.

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France’s President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap parliamentary election after a significant defeat by the far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, in the European elections. This unexpected move came as exit polls indicated that the National Rally secured over 30% of the vote, double that of Macron’s centrist Renaissance party. While France’s far-right victory was notable, the broader European election narrative saw the centre-right parties strengthening their hold on the EU Parliament, achieving successes in countries like Germany, Greece, Poland, and Spain.

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission and a prominent figure in the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), highlighted that despite gains by both far-left and far-right factions, the centre-right remained a stabilizing force. Von der Leyen reaffirmed the EPP’s commitment to alliances only with the Socialists & Democrats and the liberal Renew group, excluding any collaboration with far-right groups.

Germany’s elections saw the conservative CDU come out on top, whereas Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD experienced its worst-ever European election result, finishing behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy continued their dominance, while in Austria, the Freedom Party was poised for an unprecedented victory in the European vote.

Elsewhere, Hungary witnessed a new challenge to Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s dominance with the rise of Peter Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party. Spain’s centre-right Popular Party narrowly defeated the Socialists, while far-right Vox came in third. In Denmark, the opposition Green-Left party achieved a surprise victory, and in Slovakia, the liberal Progressive Slovakia party triumphed over the ruling Smer party.

Overall, while the far-right made notable gains in specific countries, particularly France, their surge was less pronounced across Europe than anticipated. The centre-right’s consolidation of power, however, underscores a continuing preference for more moderate political forces in the EU.

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Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, was unexpectedly attacked while walking in Copenhagen’s city center, leaving her shocked and with minor whiplash. The assailant, swiftly apprehended, prompted concern over the motive behind the assault. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the incident, echoing sentiments against such violence in Europe. Witnesses described the assailant’s forceful push on Frederiksen, who managed to avoid falling completely but sought recovery at a nearby café.

The attack, occurring just before Denmark’s EU election, raises concerns over political safety. Frederiksen’s Social Democrats, though still leading in polls, have experienced declining support. Colleagues expressed solidarity and shock over the assault, while EU officials denounced it vehemently.

Frederiksen, at 46, became Denmark’s youngest prime minister in 2019, known internationally for her disagreement with former U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland’s purchase suggestion. Additionally, her government’s mink culling during the Covid-19 pandemic drew criticism in 2022.

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A tragic incident unfolded at Charles University in Prague, marking the deadliest attack in modern Czech history. A 24-year-old gunman shot and killed 14 people while injuring 25 others in the Faculty of Arts building, located in the historic center of the capital. The assailant, who was later “eliminated” by the police, was revealed to be a student at the university. The motives behind the attack were not immediately known.

The shooting commenced at approximately 15:00 local time, prompting university staff to barricade themselves in rooms for safety. Disturbing footage circulated on social media, showing individuals jumping to safety from the building’s ledges, and the sound of gunshots echoed through the air. Prime Minister Petr Fiala canceled upcoming engagements in response to the tragic events.

Police authorities disclosed that the gunman hailed from a village outside Prague, and his father was found dead earlier on the same day. The police were investigating a possible link between the gunman and two deaths in a forest near Prague the previous week. Preliminary information suggested that no police officers were injured during the university attack.

Witnesses, including a university professor and tourists, recounted the chaos and panic that ensued as people sought refuge from the gunfire. Charles University students reported barricading themselves in classrooms, receiving instructions to stay in place until the situation was under control. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed shock at the senseless violence.

Charles University, founded in 1347, is the oldest and largest university in the Czech Republic and one of the oldest in Europe. The tragic incident has left the nation in mourning and raised questions about the motives behind the gunman’s actions.

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Dozens of people were injured in a series of missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, overnight, with 53 people, including six children, harmed, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. The attacks occurred after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plea for increased military aid in the US yielded little progress. Ten Russian ballistic missiles were reportedly shot down, damaging kindergarten and hospital buildings. Zelensky, who left the US prior to the strikes, vowed a response and criticized Russia for targeting residential areas. The EU is set to discuss further aid for Ukraine, and Zelensky arrived in Norway for additional support talks.

The attack on Kyiv followed the use of cruise missiles by Russia, ending a 79-day hiatus in missile attacks. Ukraine’s air force claimed to have intercepted all 10 incoming missiles. The projectiles were identified as Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-400s, designed for air defense but also used against ground targets. A major cyberattack on Ukraine’s largest mobile network operator, Kyivstar, disrupted operations, impacting millions of people relying on air raid alerts. Additionally, the port city of Odesa faced drone attacks, causing injuries and damage.

Zelensky’s efforts to secure more military aid in the US faced challenges, with President Joe Biden warning Republicans about giving Russia a “Christmas gift” if aid was not increased. Zelensky and Biden agreed to enhance air defense systems for Ukraine. Meanwhile, a summit of European leaders discussed Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposed opening accession talks, emphasizing the need for support without full membership.

Hungary has previously clashed with EU partners over its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed Ukraine’s fight as crucial for Europe and urged support for its inclusion in the European family.

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An uptick in anti-Semitic incidents in Europe has recently rattled Berlin’s Jewish community, culminating in a disturbing event where two petrol bombs were thrown at a synagogue. The director of the synagogue, Anna Segal, expressed the growing tensions and feelings of threat within the community.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the attack, which occurred in the midst of violent protests in Berlin, where emergency services were targeted with projectiles and street barricades were set ablaze. Simultaneously, Lebanon’s Hezbollah called for a “day of rage” following a devastating explosion at a Gaza hospital.

The Central Council of Jews in Germany deemed this call a form of psychological terrorism that often leads to concrete attacks. The recent assault on the Berlin synagogue, which also houses a community center and a school, has heightened the community’s sense of vulnerability, with demands for better protection.

While police presence was reported at the time of the attack, a man was later detained for shouting anti-Israel slogans near the synagogue. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations in France and parts of Germany were banned, with the Paris police dispersing a prohibited rally using tear gas and water cannon. In response to the surge in anti-Semitic incidents, French authorities vowed swift action against perpetrators, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the concerning rise in hate speech and vandalism targeting synagogues.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Community Security Trust (CST) in the UK also condemned the escalation of anti-Semitic acts. The CST particularly urged universities to swiftly combat anti-Semitism and safeguard Jewish students, highlighting 36 recorded incidents on campuses between October 7 and 16.

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Russia has informed the United Nations, Turkey, and Ukraine that it will not extend a crucial grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the agreements had effectively ended on Monday. The deal permitted cargo ships to pass through the Black Sea from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. However, Russia stated that it would reconsider the agreement if certain conditions were met.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously expressed dissatisfaction with parts of the deal, claiming that the export of Russian food and fertilizers had not been fulfilled. He specifically mentioned that grain had not been supplied to poorer nations, which was a condition of the agreement. Russia also complained about Western sanctions limiting its agricultural exports and repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal.

On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry reiterated these concerns, accusing the West of “open sabotage” and prioritizing commercial interests over humanitarian goals. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his belief that Putin still wanted to continue the agreement and stated that they would discuss its renewal during their upcoming meeting.

The grain deal is significant because Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat, and barley. Following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian ports were blockaded, trapping 20 million tonnes of grain and causing a sharp increase in global food prices. The blockade also posed a threat to food supplies in Middle Eastern and African countries heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain.

Nikolay Gorbachev, the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, mentioned that alternative methods of exporting grain had been identified, including through Danube River ports. However, he acknowledged that these ports would be less efficient, leading to reduced grain exports and increased transportation costs.

Western leaders swiftly criticized Russia’s decision, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemning it as a “cynical move” and emphasizing the EU’s efforts to ensure food security for vulnerable populations.

Russia’s announcement coincided with Ukraine claiming responsibility for an attack on a bridge in Crimea that resulted in the deaths of two civilians. Peskov stated that Russia’s decision to let the deal expire was unrelated to the attack, as President Putin had already declared the position before the incident.

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For years, the European Union (EU) has faced criticism for lacking a single voice on the world stage. However, many in Brussels now see Ursula von der Leyen, the first female President of the European Commission, as someone who can fill that role. Von der Leyen has been involved in various high-profile meetings, such as visiting Kyiv and attending an EU summit with Ukraine’s president, meeting Joe Biden at the White House to address tensions over green subsidies, and joining French President Emmanuel Macron to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping amid deteriorating EU-China relations.

During her tenure as the head of the European Commission, which shapes and enforces policies for 450 million Europeans, von der Leyen has faced significant challenges. She took office in 2019 with a focus on addressing the climate emergency but soon had to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, which marked the largest war on European soil since World War II. Despite these crises, von der Leyen has been praised for her leadership, with one EU official noting that the EU now has a central command and a leader for crisis management.

Von der Leyen follows a disciplined routine, starting her day early and living in her office at the Berlaymont, the commission’s headquarters, to avoid traffic. Her living space is a modest room on the 13th floor, originally designed as a restroom, for which she pays €18,000 in rent deducted from her salary and housing allowance. Known for her work ethic, the 64-year-old former medical doctor spends much of her time at her desk and avoids social events. She leads a frugal lifestyle, abstaining from alcohol and maintaining a vegetarian diet.

Von der Leyen rarely gives interviews and prefers to deliver carefully scripted video messages in English, French, and German. She is known for her punctuality and efficiency, with meetings starting and ending on time. While her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, was known for his wit and spontaneity, von der Leyen prefers to stick to prepared remarks.

Overall, von der Leyen’s leadership has been marked by her ability to navigate crises and provide a more unified voice for the EU on the global stage.

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Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has pleaded with Xi Jinping, the leader of China, to assist in ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

He told Mr. Xi in Beijing, “I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses, and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.” China and France, according to Mr. Xi, have the “capacity and obligation” to preserve world peace.

Moscow, meanwhile, declared that the onslaught will carry on since there were currently “no prospects for a peaceful conclusion.”

After years of deteriorating relations between the West and China, which has hesitated to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Macron is in China on a state visit that is being closely watched.

Also, Mr. Macron wants to improve business connections. He is joined by a sizable business group as well as Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who he asked to participate in meetings with the Chinese leadership.

In the late afternoon on Thursday, Mr. Macron was treated to a lavish military display in Beijing before meeting Mr. Xi for private talks that were described as “frank” and “warm” by Chinese and French officials.

Following the meeting, Mr. Xi addressed the media and urged “reasonable restraint” from the international community, stating that China “advocates for peace talks and wants a political settlement.”

He also reaffirmed the prohibition against using nuclear weapons in the conflict. Earlier this week, Russia declared its intention to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, close to the ally’s western border with Nato countries.

Mr Macron said “we can’t have a safe and stable Europe” as long as Ukraine remained occupied, and that it was “unacceptable” that a member of the UN Security Council had violated the organisation’s charter.

The French president addressed Mr. Xi directly throughout the press conference, striking a friendly tone throughout his statement. It contrasted with Mr. Xi’s lethargic press conference delivery.

Later, in a different press conference, Ms. von der Leyen emphasised that it would be against international law and “seriously undermine” the relationship between the EU and China if Beijing sent weapons to Russia.

She said that she wanted Beijing to play a role that “promotes a just peace” and that she “firmly” supported Volodymyr Zelensky, the leader of Ukraine, in his peace proposal, which asks for the complete departure of Russian soldiers.

China has released its own peace plan which Western nations have been generally dismissive of, saying it sides too much with Russia. But Mr Zelensky has expressed interest in it and called for direct talks with Mr Xi – who has yet to publicly respond.

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