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Erdogan of Turkey poised for economic reversal and significant increase in interest rates

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Turkey is preparing to reverse some of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies as his new economic team takes action to tackle soaring inflation.

Just weeks after Erdogan’s re-election, interest rates are expected to undergo a significant increase from their current level of 8.5%. With inflation at nearly 40% and citizens grappling with a severe cost-of-living crisis, the urgency to address the situation is evident.

However, Erdogan has previously insisted on keeping interest rates low, despite economists advocating for their increase. The extent of the impending interest rate hike remains uncertain, with varying predictions from different experts, ranging from an 11.5-point increase to as high as 40%. Erdogan’s challenge stems from persistently high inflation and critically low reserves in the central bank, which have been depleted due to extensive efforts to support the Turkish lira.

In the past, the President dismissed three central bank governors in under two years when they attempted to adhere to orthodox policies. Having seen interest rates decline from 19% two years ago to 8.5% recently, Turkey now faces the prospect of another rise, further exacerbating its ongoing economic crisis. The dilemma lies in the fact that pursuing orthodox economic policies could negatively impact a significant portion of the population, which Erdogan may seek to avoid in light of local elections scheduled for next year. While Turkey experienced substantial economic growth during the initial years of Erdogan’s leadership, unconventional approaches blaming high inflation on borrowing costs and prioritizing economic stimulation have led to a drastic decline in the Turkish currency’s value and foreign investment.

The country now grapples with citizens attempting to transfer their foreign funds out of domestic banks. The appointment of Mehmet Simsek, a former banker and economist, as finance minister, and Hafize Gaye Erkan, Turkey’s first female central bank chief, signals Erdogan’s inclination towards a change in economic direction. Simsek has emphasized the necessity of returning to “rational ground” and compliance with international norms, while Erkan, a prominent figure on Wall Street, brings an external perspective to the role.

Erdogan maintained his stance on low interest rates during the election campaign, but shortly after his re-election, he hinted at a shift. It is expected that Erkan will have to implement immediate and substantial rate hikes rather than gradual adjustments, according to emerging markets specialist Timothy Ash, who also warned of the risks associated with such a move.

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Turkish election victory for Erdogan leaves nation divided

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s supporters celebrated late into the night after he secured another five years as Turkey’s president. Erdogan proclaimed that the entire nation of 85 million had won, but his call for unity seemed insincere as he mocked his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu and targeted a jailed Kurdish leader and the LGBT community.

Kilicdaroglu did not explicitly concede defeat and complained about the unfairness of the election, alleging that Erdogan’s party had utilized state resources against him. Erdogan secured just over 52% of the vote, but nearly half of the electorate did not support his authoritarian vision.

Although Kilicdaroglu managed to force Erdogan into a runoff, he was unable to close the significant gap in votes and fell more than two million votes behind. Erdogan celebrated his victory with speeches to cheering supporters in Istanbul and from his palace in Ankara, taunting Kilicdaroglu with the words “Bye, bye, Kemal.”

Erdogan also criticized the increase in seats of the main opposition party in the parliamentary vote and condemned the opposition alliance’s pro-LGBT policies, contrasting them with his focus on families. The lead-up to the election was marked by tension, including a fatal stabbing of an opposition party official, which was attributed to celebratory youths.

Although the final results were not confirmed, the Supreme Election Council declared Erdogan the winner. This extended his period in power to a quarter of a century, a result that was both unprecedented and accompanied by the opening of the palace complex to the public.

Supporters from all over Ankara gathered to celebrate the victory, momentarily setting aside Turkey’s economic crisis. Erdogan acknowledged that tackling inflation was the most urgent issue, but there are concerns about his willingness to implement necessary measures. Inflation rates near 44% have severely impacted people’s lives, with the cost of food, rent, and everyday goods skyrocketing.

Despite economic concerns, Erdogan’s supporters expressed pride in his powerful position on the global stage and his tough stance against “terrorists,” referring to Kurdish militants. Erdogan accused his opponent of siding with terrorists and vowed to keep Selahattin Demirtas, a former co-leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, in jail despite international calls for his release.

Erdogan also promised to prioritize rebuilding areas affected by earthquakes and facilitate the “voluntary” return of Syrian refugees. People flocked to Istanbul’s Taksim Square to join in the celebrations, including visitors from the Middle East and the Gulf who praised Erdogan for his support of Arabs and the Muslim world.

Despite the festive atmosphere, the idea of unity in the deeply polarized country seemed more distant than ever. Since the failed coup in 2016, Erdogan has consolidated power by abolishing the position of prime minister and expanding his authority. The opposition will now need to regroup for the local elections in 2024, with the possibility that their popular mayors in Ankara and Istanbul could have had a better chance of winning the presidential race.

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Turkish election: Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu clash in desperate race for votes

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In the final hours of Turkey’s presidential race, tensions have risen as Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to extend his 20-year rule by another five years. Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has appealed to nationalist voters by promising to expel millions of Syrian refugees, which Erdogan has labeled as hate speech and warned that it would benefit terrorists. Kilicdaroglu is trailing behind by 2.5 million votes from the first round, but he believes he can bridge the gap with the support of ultranationalist voters and those who didn’t vote in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu recently engaged in a four-hour Q&A session on a popular YouTube channel, BaBaLa TV, which has garnered 24 million views. This move was seen as a strategic move to reach out to young voters who didn’t participate in the previous round. The appearance on BaBaLa TV was crucial for Kilicdaroglu to counter Erdogan’s dominance over the Turkish media, as he controls approximately 90% of it.

International observers have criticized Turkey for not meeting the basic principles of holding a democratic election, citing limited media freedom and crackdowns on dissent. Erdogan has consolidated power over the past six years and suppressed political opponents, leading to their imprisonment. In a town called Bala, where Erdogan enjoys strong support, Kilicdaroglu is unlikely to find much backing. The majority of voters there supported Erdogan in the previous round, and there is little sign of first-time voters mobilizing.

While Turkey’s struggling economy was initially the main issue, the focus has shifted to the refugee crisis as the run-off vote approaches. Kilicdaroglu, aiming to attract ultranationalist voters, secured the support of the anti-immigrant Victory Party, whose leader claimed that Kilicdaroglu had agreed to repatriate “13 million migrants” within a year, in line with international law. However, Turkey hosts a much smaller number of refugees, and experts deem the discourse unrealistic and unfeasible.

Public opinion polls suggest that around 85% of Turks want Syrian refugees to return home, making the refugee issue a significant factor in the election. Kilicdaroglu is tapping into security concerns and the perceived threats associated with the immigrant crisis, terrorist attacks, and regional conflicts involving Russia, Syria, and Azerbaijan.

Erdogan has responded by claiming that he is already sending Syrian refugees back and plans to do more. He has also used manipulated videos to link Kilicdaroglu to the Kurdish militant PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization. His target is the pro-Kurdish HDP party, which supports Kilicdaroglu and has been falsely associated with the PKK by Erdogan. The HDP supports Kilicdaroglu to end what they perceive as Erdogan’s authoritarian rule but has reservations about his alliance with a far-right nationalist party.

Initially, there were expectations that Erdogan could be defeated due to his mishandling of the economy and his response to natural disasters. However, almost half of the voters supported him in the first round. The question remains whether Kilicdaroglu’s change in strategy will be effective. Some voters, like Songul, who desired change initially, have decided to stick with Erdogan due to a lack of trust in Kilicdaroglu and the absence of a viable alternative.

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Turkey’s Erdogan appears to have upper hand after tense night

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The battle for the presidency in Turkey is likely to go to a run-off, with both candidates confident of victory. After being in power for 20 years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his belief in winning another five-year term, while his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu seemed to have a favorable chance of winning. However, preliminary results from the first round showed Erdogan leading with 49.4% of the votes, compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 45%. Erdogan’s alliance of parties also secured a majority in parliament, providing an additional advantage in the presidential run-off.

The opposition parties in Turkey had joined forces to end Erdogan’s extended power, and the outcome of the election is closely watched by Western countries. Kilicdaroglu pledged to revive Turkish democracy and strengthen relations with NATO allies, while Erdogan’s government, with an Islamist-rooted background, accused the West of conspiring against him.

Following the announcement of the preliminary results, Kilicdaroglu remained optimistic, stating that he would win in the second round if the nation demanded it. However, there were concerns that the government was trying to obstruct the will of the people through challenges in opposition strongholds. Rising stars within Kilicdaroglu’s party reminded voters that Erdogan’s party had employed similar strategies in the past. The opposition highlighted the efforts of their volunteers in safeguarding the ballots to ensure a fair process.

Although Kilicdaroglu, who has lost several previous elections, struck a chord with his message of curbing the president’s excessive powers, Erdogan seems to have the upper hand despite the challenging circumstances. Turkey has been grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, with 44% inflation, exacerbated by Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. The government also faced criticism for its slow response to the earthquakes in February, which claimed many lives.

Overnight results indicated that Erdogan’s support in areas affected by the earthquakes only slightly decreased, with his backing remaining above 60% in most of the eight cities. Erdogan, speaking to his supporters, declared that he was far ahead, despite the final results not yet being available. The outcome defied pollsters’ predictions, who had suggested that Kilicdaroglu held an advantage and could potentially win without a run-off.

Unconfirmed results quoted by the state news agency Anadolu suggested that Erdogan’s AK Party, in alliance with the nationalist MHP, was heading for a parliamentary majority, with 316 seats out of 600. This result showcases the deep polarization within Turkish society, a century after the founding of the modern Turkish republic by Kemal Ataturk.

As the expected run-off approaches, it remains uncertain how close the race will be. Speculation has already emerged regarding the 5% of votes received by the third candidate, ultranationalist Sinan Ogan. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely seek Ogan’s endorsement, but it is unclear if his supporters will follow suit.

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Turkey election: Opposition dares to dream of Erdogan defeat

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Turkey’s President Erdogan is facing a strong opposition in the upcoming elections, as his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu has managed to unite allies from various political backgrounds. Kilicdaroglu, accompanied by his supporters, delivered a passionate speech in Ankara, promising to restore “peace and democracy.”

Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, defended his record, claiming that he has successfully overcome numerous challenges, including the struggling economy and devastating earthquakes in February. The issues of the economy and natural disasters have been the focal points of the campaign for both the presidency and parliament.

Kilicdaroglu, aged 74, is known for his soft-spoken nature, but he delivered a strong speech that resonated with those who see him as their best chance to regain power from Erdogan, who has centralized authority and expanded his own powers significantly.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate, is slightly leading in the opinion polls, and his supporters are hopeful that he might secure more than 50% of the vote, avoiding a run-off election in two weeks.

The alliance supporting Kilicdaroglu includes conservatives, nationalists, and even a pro-Islamist party, which has delighted many of his followers. Kilicdaroglu’s party maintains a strong secular stance but has made efforts to appeal to women who wear the headscarf. The six parties in the alliance have come together under the slogan “Haydi” (Come on!) and have a campaign song of the same name.

Tensions are running high in the lead-up to the election. Kilicdaroglu even wore a bullet-proof vest during his final rally in Ankara and at a previous event, highlighting the intensity of the race.

Muharrem Ince, one of the candidates for the presidency, withdrew from the race, citing targeted attacks on social media with manipulated videos aimed at swaying the electorate. The atmosphere surrounding the election has become both tense and crucial.

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