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NATO Commits to “Irreversible Path” for Ukraine’s Membership

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NATO members have pledged support for an “irreversible path” to future membership for Ukraine and more aid. Although a formal timeline for Ukraine’s NATO membership wasn’t agreed upon at the Washington DC summit, the 32 members expressed “unwavering” support for Ukraine’s war effort. NATO announced further integration with Ukraine’s military and committed €40 billion in aid over the next year, including F-16 fighter jets and air defense support. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that supporting Ukraine is in NATO’s own security interest.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the transfer of US-built F-16 jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands, expected to be operational this summer. NATO members also agreed to establish a new unit to coordinate military aid and training for the Ukrainian army, aiming to deepen ties with Ukraine. The joint statement highlighted Ukraine’s “concrete progress” on necessary reforms but stated that a formal membership invitation would be extended only when certain conditions are met.

The summit’s declaration identified Russia as the most significant threat to security and criticized China for supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Beijing responded angrily, accusing NATO of fabricating disinformation and provoking confrontation. China also urged NATO to stay out of the Asia-Pacific region, accusing the alliance of undermining regional peace and stability by strengthening military ties with China’s neighbors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the summit, meeting with world leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and US politicians, to secure continued support for Ukraine. NATO leaders aimed to present a united front on Ukraine, despite recent Russian gains on the battlefield and the absence of a clear timeline for Ukraine’s NATO membership. The summit, marking NATO’s 75th anniversary, occurred amid political challenges for US President Joe Biden and concerns over potential impacts of US domestic politics on the alliance. Biden reaffirmed support for Ukraine and called for increased defense investment from NATO members.

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NATO summit to witness G7’s unveiling of a comprehensive security plan for Ukraine

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During the NATO summit, the G7 nations are expected to approve a long-term security agreement with Ukraine. The agreement will encompass provisions for defense equipment, training, and intelligence sharing.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak emphasized that this agreement would send a strong message to Russian President Putin. The move comes after Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized NATO for not providing a timeline for Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. Sunak stated that the allies of Kyiv are reinforcing their formal arrangements to ensure long-term protection for Ukraine and prevent a repetition of the brutality it has faced from Russia.

The United Kingdom has played a leading role in this agreement, which involves G7 partners such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States. The details of the agreement are expected to be revealed during the summit.

US President Joe Biden has previously suggested a model similar to the US-Israel agreement, which entails providing Ukraine with $3.8 billion in military aid annually for ten years, but without an obligation to come to Ukraine’s aid during an attack. While NATO stated that Ukraine could join the alliance when conditions are met, Zelensky expressed frustration over the lack of a specific timeframe. Despite the absence of a timeline, diplomats pointed out that a clear path to membership has been established, with the application process shortened significantly.

The focus now shifts to the long-term security guarantees that NATO members will offer Ukraine as an alternative to immediate membership. The summit also saw the announcement of military packages for Ukraine, including the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, and the UK’s commitment to deliver combat and logistics vehicles to Ukraine.

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Heightened Alert: Polish Security Patrols Increase Vigilance at Belarus Border Amid Ukraine Conflict

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Poland has become increasingly cautious of its neighbor Belarus due to the possibility of Russian Wagner group mercenaries relocating there as part of a deal to end their mutiny. In response, Poland has fortified its border with miles of fencing, thermal cameras, and spotlights, which were initially installed after Belarus encouraged migrants to cross into Poland.

Poland is deploying extra officers as reinforcements ahead of the NATO summit, expressing concerns that the Wagner forces could instigate further trouble. The unpredictability of Belarus is seen as the biggest threat, with uncertainties surrounding the motives and preparations of the Wagner group. Despite the intended disbandment and exile of the mercenaries to Belarus, there are indications that the group is still operating within Russia.

Online contacts with Wagner revealed that recruitment was ongoing, and detailed instructions were provided to find the mercenaries’ training camp in southern Russia. However, the whereabouts and future plans of the Wagner group remain unclear. While some Belarusians express concerns about the group’s potential arrival, others see their recent mutiny as a sign of weakness within the Kremlin, fueling hopes for change.

There are doubts that Wagner will relocate to Belarus in large numbers or that their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would settle there due to potential scrutiny from the Russian FSB security service. Polish worries and warnings about Wagner’s presence in Belarus could be influenced by domestic politics, with some suggesting it as a political tool to enhance the government’s security credentials ahead of upcoming elections.

The situation surrounding the Wagner mutineers remains shrouded in mystery, leading Poland to maintain heightened border patrols and surveillance.

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Biden Stands by Choice to Provide Ukraine with Controversial Cluster Bombs

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US President Joe Biden has defended his controversial decision to supply cluster bombs to Ukraine, acknowledging it as a “very difficult decision” but emphasizing the urgent need for ammunition faced by the Ukrainian forces. While Ukraine’s leader praised the move as timely, criticism has arisen from human rights groups and certain Democrats. A Moscow envoy condemned the decision as cynical. Biden, ahead of a Nato summit, stated that he had consulted with allies regarding the decision.

Cluster bombs are internationally banned by over 120 countries due to their track record of causing civilian casualties. The decision to provide them to Ukraine has raised concerns due to the risk of unexploded bombs causing harm to civilians in the long term. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledged the risk and explained that the decision was postponed as long as possible. Sullivan asserted that the cluster bombs provided by the US are safer compared to those used by Russia in the conflict, with a lower rate of unexploded bombs.

The decision bypasses US law prohibiting the use, production, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate exceeding 1%. Earlier in the war, when allegations of Russia’s use of cluster and vacuum bombs surfaced, the US referred to it as a potential war crime. The UN human rights office called for an immediate halt to the use of such munitions in any location. The Russian ambassador to the US criticized Biden’s decision, highlighting the risk of civilians being harmed by failed submunitions for years to come.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude for the military aid package worth $800 million provided by the US. He stated that it would bring Ukraine closer to victory and democracy over dictatorship. However, human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and the US Cluster Munition Coalition condemned the decision, citing the grave threat cluster munitions pose to civilian lives even after the conflict ends.

The response from US lawmakers on Capitol Hill has been mixed, with some Democrats considering the decision alarming and a mistake, while others, including Republican leaders, view it as a means to enhance Ukraine’s capability to counter Russian forces more effectively.

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Swedish Court Sentences Kurdish Individual to Prison for Financing Terrorism Following Turkish Request for Action

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In Sweden, a Kurdish man has been sentenced to four-and-a-half years in prison for various crimes, including an attempt to finance terrorism. This is the first instance where Sweden’s updated anti-terrorism laws have been utilized in a case involving the Kurdish militant group PKK. Turkey has long urged Sweden to take action against Kurdish separatists. Sweden’s aspirations to join NATO have been delayed, primarily due to Turkey’s demand for the extradition of individuals it considers terrorists.

Ahead of a NATO summit, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is set to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Lithuania. Sweden is hopeful for NATO membership and has received support from President Joe Biden. The timing of the court case was emphasized by commentators, who noted that it conveyed a message to Ankara that Sweden was cracking down on the PKK.

The convicted Kurdish man, who has Turkish origins, will be deported after serving his sentence. The judge highlighted that Sweden’s NATO bid did not influence the court’s decision. Last month, Sweden strengthened its anti-terrorism laws to criminalize arranging meetings to provide financial or other assistance to banned groups. Critics raised concerns about potential impacts on freedom of speech.

The sentencing coincided with a significant meeting in Brussels involving the foreign ministers of Sweden, Turkey, and Finland, ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. Finland’s Foreign Minister expressed hopes for a swift announcement regarding Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey’s President has voiced reservations about Sweden’s bid, emphasizing the need for further action.

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