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Italy’s Bonus-Seat Reform Could Hand Meloni Strong Majority

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A proposed reform of Italy’s electoral system could significantly boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s chances of securing a second term, according to new studies. The ruling centre-right coalition has agreed to shift to a fully proportional voting system that includes a seat bonus for any coalition winning more than 40% of the vote. The measure, which still requires parliamentary approval, is designed to ensure governing stability but has drawn sharp criticism from the opposition.

Analysis by polling firm YouTrend suggests that under the current mixed system, neither the centre-right nor the left would likely win an outright majority, raising the prospect of a hung parliament. However, under the proposed rules, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and its allies — the League and Forza Italia — would secure a clear majority. The winning coalition would receive a 70-seat bonus in the 400-member lower house and 35 extra seats in the 200-member Senate, capped at 60% of total seats.

The opposition Democratic Party has denounced the reform as an attempt to tilt the system in favour of the government, while Meloni’s allies argue it would prevent political gridlock after the 2027 election. A separate poll indicated the centre-right currently leads by about four percentage points, enough under the new rules to translate a narrow vote advantage into a commanding parliamentary majority.

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Southern Election Shifts Raise Doubts Over Meloni’s 2027 Prospects

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Italy’s recent southern regional election results have cast new uncertainty over Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s path to re-election in 2027. While the national outcome ended in a 3-3 split between the ruling conservative bloc and the centre-left, decisive victories for the opposition in Campania and Puglia signaled a growing challenge to Meloni’s dominance. Political leaders, including former PM Matteo Renzi, say these results prove there is a viable alternative to Meloni’s leadership.

The centre-left now believes a unified national alliance could flip around 20 key Senate seats in the south—seats that are crucial for forming a government under Italy’s mixed electoral system. Analysts warn that if these constituencies shift away from the conservatives, Italy could face a hung parliament. This has prompted Meloni’s coalition to consider revising the electoral law, potentially scrapping first-past-the-post seats to protect their hold on power.

Despite Meloni’s continued popularity and stability-focused governance, her allies remain weak in national polls, limiting her coalition’s overall strength. Meanwhile, the opposition faces its own challenge of uniting diverse factions—ranging from hard-left groups to pro-business centrists—into a single national project. Their first major test will be the 2026 referendum on Meloni’s justice reform, a vote that observers say could significantly impact her political momentum.

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