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Lagarde May Leave ECB Early Ahead of French Election

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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is reportedly considering an early departure from her post, potentially before France’s 2027 presidential election. The move, cited by the Financial Times, would allow outgoing President Emmanuel Macron to have a say in selecting her successor, as a far-right victory next year could complicate the choice. ECB officials, however, insist Lagarde remains focused on her current term and has made no final decision.

France, as the eurozone’s second-largest economy, traditionally plays a major role in appointing ECB leadership, with Germany also influencing the selection. Potential successors include Klaas Knot, Pablo Hernández de Cos, and Joachim Nagel, all mainstream central bankers expected to maintain policy continuity. Lagarde’s early exit could also accelerate appointments for other key ECB executive roles, including chief economist Philip Lane and market operations head Isabel Schnabel.

The news follows the early resignation of François Villeroy de Galhau, enabling Macron to influence domestic central bank appointments. Despite political maneuvering, markets remain calm, with inflation stable and interest rates neutral, making the ECB’s current policy environment relatively stable and predictable. Analysts warn, however, that attempts to preempt a far-right government could have unintended political consequences.

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ECB Should Avoid Rushing Policy Moves Amid Uncertainty, Says Austria’s Kocher

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The European Central Bank (ECB) should be careful about taking preemptive policy action in response to rising uncertainty, Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher said in an interview with German outlet Platow. Kocher noted that while geopolitical risks have intensified recently, central banks should avoid committing to policy moves before risks clearly materialise.

Kocher pointed to heightened global uncertainty driven partly by fresh geopolitical tensions, including threats of new U.S. trade measures. However, he cautioned that acting too early—especially when inflation risks are not clearly tilted in one direction—could lock policymakers into a difficult position and complicate communication. “Some risks can be addressed in advance, but many cannot,” he said.

He added that over the past six months, risks had shifted “slightly to the positive,” with modestly improved euro zone growth expectations and stable financial markets. While acknowledging recent developments, Kocher said it was too soon to reassess the broader outlook. Financial markets currently expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026.

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German Business Growth Slows in November as Manufacturing Contracts: PMI

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Germany’s private sector lost momentum in November, with manufacturing unexpectedly contracting and the services sector expanding at a slower pace, according to the latest HCOB flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global. The index slipped to 52.1 from 53.9 in October, marking a two-month low. Despite the decline, the reading stayed above the 50-point threshold for the sixth consecutive month, signaling continued but weakening growth.

The manufacturing PMI fell deeper into contraction territory at 48.4, compared with 49.6 in October and below expectations for a slight improvement. The sector saw sharp drops in new orders, particularly export sales, which experienced their fastest decline since January. The downturn led to falling backlogs and a rise in job losses. Meanwhile, the services PMI also weakened to 52.7 from 54.6, missing forecasts and contributing to a subdued overall outlook.

“This is a major setback for Germany,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noting that hopes for stronger service sector expansion have faded. He warned that the economy is “limping towards marginal growth” in the fourth quarter. While government investment in defence and civil engineering has boosted optimism for future output, the finance ministry recently stated that only a moderate recovery is likely by year-end.

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