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Orban Meets Putin Again in Moscow, Defying EU and NATO Concerns

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has once again broken ranks with his EU and NATO partners by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, just days before US-Russia discussions on the Ukraine war. Orban, one of Putin’s closest allies in Europe, has consistently opposed European efforts to isolate Russia, and his latest visit drew sharp criticism from EU leaders. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Orban was acting without any European mandate, calling his diplomacy “nothing new.”

During the meeting, Putin thanked Orban for offering Budapest as a venue for a potential Trump-Putin summit and praised Hungary’s “balanced position” on Ukraine. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the visit secured guarantees for Russian oil and gas supplies and confirmed continued work on Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant. The atmosphere, however, appeared tense, with reports of awkward interactions and suggestions from Hungarian media of mistranslated remarks meant to paint a friendlier picture.

Orban, facing a tough parliamentary election next April, is seen as using these high-profile diplomatic moments to strengthen his political standing. He continues to champion Trump’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine while accusing EU leaders of warmongering. Despite pressure from Brussels to cut dependence on Russian energy by 2027, Hungary still relies heavily on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel. As Putin openly supports Orban’s re-election, both leaders appear aligned in leveraging the visit for political advantage.

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Southern Election Shifts Raise Doubts Over Meloni’s 2027 Prospects

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Italy’s recent southern regional election results have cast new uncertainty over Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s path to re-election in 2027. While the national outcome ended in a 3-3 split between the ruling conservative bloc and the centre-left, decisive victories for the opposition in Campania and Puglia signaled a growing challenge to Meloni’s dominance. Political leaders, including former PM Matteo Renzi, say these results prove there is a viable alternative to Meloni’s leadership.

The centre-left now believes a unified national alliance could flip around 20 key Senate seats in the south—seats that are crucial for forming a government under Italy’s mixed electoral system. Analysts warn that if these constituencies shift away from the conservatives, Italy could face a hung parliament. This has prompted Meloni’s coalition to consider revising the electoral law, potentially scrapping first-past-the-post seats to protect their hold on power.

Despite Meloni’s continued popularity and stability-focused governance, her allies remain weak in national polls, limiting her coalition’s overall strength. Meanwhile, the opposition faces its own challenge of uniting diverse factions—ranging from hard-left groups to pro-business centrists—into a single national project. Their first major test will be the 2026 referendum on Meloni’s justice reform, a vote that observers say could significantly impact her political momentum.

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French PM Urges Lawmakers to End Budget Standoff and Pass 2026 Bill

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French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has pressed lawmakers to pass the 2026 national budget before the end of the year, following the lower house’s rejection of key tax provisions. The bill now moves to the Senate, where a review will begin immediately, amid rising political tensions within France’s fragmented parliament.

Lecornu said there is still time to reach consensus and called on opposition groups to avoid blocking the legislative process. With President Emmanuel Macron’s minority government facing intense pressure from both the far right and far left, any setback could trigger a no-confidence vote that may topple the prime minister. He said he would meet party leaders in the coming days to negotiate a compromise.

Once the Senate debates the proposal, a joint committee will attempt to reconcile differences between the two chambers before a final vote in the lower house. Lecornu stressed that the government is determined to keep next year’s deficit below 5% of GDP, despite major revisions expected to the initial plan, which includes over €30 billion in deficit reduction primarily through spending cuts and selective tax increases.

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Trump Grants Hungary One-Year Exemption from Russian Energy Sanctions

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President Donald Trump has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports, marking a diplomatic win for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The decision, confirmed by a White House official, follows Orban’s visit to Washington, where he argued that his landlocked nation faced severe energy supply challenges without Russian imports. Trump acknowledged Hungary’s unique position and noted the difficulty of finding alternative sources of oil and gas.

The exemption comes just weeks after the US imposed harsh sanctions on major Russian energy companies, warning of penalties for nations continuing trade with them. As part of the deal, Hungary agreed to purchase several hundred million dollars’ worth of US natural gas, though the arrangement is expected to unsettle many European capitals critical of Orban’s pro-Russia stance. The move underscores the close personal and political ties between Trump and Orban, who share similar right-wing populist views.

During their meeting, the two leaders also discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Trump hinting at future peace talks involving Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban reiterated his belief that Ukraine cannot win the conflict without a “miracle,” arguing that only the United States and Hungary genuinely seek peace. Despite tensions with the European Union, Trump praised Orban as a strong and pragmatic leader and urged Europe to accord him greater respect.

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Germany: Far-right celebrate beating Scholz’s party

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Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), expressed on Monday that there is a growing demand for a vote of confidence and new elections, stating that the public is frustrated. The AfD is celebrating their unexpected success in the European Parliament elections, where they secured 16%, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left SPD.

Despite facing numerous scandals, including allegations of money laundering, connections to the Kremlin, and espionage for China, the AfD’s campaign managed to perform well. Their two lead candidates, Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron, were sidelined due to investigations into these allegations, with Krah further tarnishing the party’s image by downplaying Nazi crimes. Consequently, France’s hard-right leader Marine Le Pen distanced herself from the AfD.

In an effort to rehabilitate the party’s image, Weidel has excluded Krah from the AfD’s EU delegation. The party attributes the scandals to a “media campaign” and criticizes the judiciary and intelligence services for being politically biased. This narrative of victimization seems to have resonated with voters.

The AfD’s effective use of social media and direct slogans contrasted with the government’s more abstract campaign messaging about “defending democracy.” Co-leader Tino Chrupalla emphasized addressing real issues over engaging in mutual insults, which appeared to appeal to the electorate, especially in eastern Germany and among younger voters.

Meanwhile, the governing coalition is grappling with the poor election results, described as a “painful humiliation” by an SPD leader. Although the conservatives led with 30%, their performance was not seen as particularly strong given the government’s unpopularity. In eastern Germany, the AfD outperformed them, and the results complicate the formation of a stable coalition in the national parliament.

This outcome bolsters CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s efforts to steer his party towards a more conservative stance and supports his ambition to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, the real beneficiaries of the election are the populists.

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Macron Calls Snap Election After Far-Right EU Defeat

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France’s President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap parliamentary election after a significant defeat by the far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, in the European elections. This unexpected move came as exit polls indicated that the National Rally secured over 30% of the vote, double that of Macron’s centrist Renaissance party. While France’s far-right victory was notable, the broader European election narrative saw the centre-right parties strengthening their hold on the EU Parliament, achieving successes in countries like Germany, Greece, Poland, and Spain.

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission and a prominent figure in the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), highlighted that despite gains by both far-left and far-right factions, the centre-right remained a stabilizing force. Von der Leyen reaffirmed the EPP’s commitment to alliances only with the Socialists & Democrats and the liberal Renew group, excluding any collaboration with far-right groups.

Germany’s elections saw the conservative CDU come out on top, whereas Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD experienced its worst-ever European election result, finishing behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy continued their dominance, while in Austria, the Freedom Party was poised for an unprecedented victory in the European vote.

Elsewhere, Hungary witnessed a new challenge to Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s dominance with the rise of Peter Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party. Spain’s centre-right Popular Party narrowly defeated the Socialists, while far-right Vox came in third. In Denmark, the opposition Green-Left party achieved a surprise victory, and in Slovakia, the liberal Progressive Slovakia party triumphed over the ruling Smer party.

Overall, while the far-right made notable gains in specific countries, particularly France, their surge was less pronounced across Europe than anticipated. The centre-right’s consolidation of power, however, underscores a continuing preference for more moderate political forces in the EU.

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Wolfgang Schäuble: Merkel’s no-nonsense finance minister dies aged 81

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Former German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, a key figure in post-war German politics, has passed away at 81. With a political career spanning 51 years, Schäuble played a crucial role in negotiating German reunification and surviving an assassination attempt in 1990.

Schäuble, a member of the conservative CDU party, served as Germany’s interior minister and later as finance minister under Chancellor Angela Merkel. His leadership resulted in Germany achieving a budget surplus in 2014, earning him recognition as a driving force behind the austerity policies adopted by the eurozone during the 2008 debt crisis.

While praised for his contributions to German reunification, Schäuble faced criticism, particularly from Greece, for his role in implementing unpopular austerity measures during the eurozone debt crisis. Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis condemned Schäuble, predicting a harsh judgment from history.

Despite never becoming chancellor, Schäuble remained one of Germany’s most influential politicians. He withdrew from frontline politics in 2022, having served as the president of the Bundestag, where he was the longest-serving MP, winning 14 constituency elections. His departure marked the end of a remarkable political career that significantly shaped Germany’s post-war history.

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Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

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Geert Wilders, a veteran anti-Islam populist leader, has achieved a significant victory in the Dutch general election, securing 37 seats for his Freedom Party (PVV) after 25 years in parliament. This outcome has shaken Dutch politics and is anticipated to have repercussions across Europe. Despite his success, Wilders needs to form a coalition government by persuading other parties to join him, aiming for a total of 76 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Wilders capitalized on public frustration regarding migration issues, promising to “close borders.” However, he temporarily shelved his proposal to ban the Koran. In his victory speech, Wilders expressed the desire to govern and acknowledged the substantial responsibility that comes with the support he received.

Before the election, major parties had ruled out participating in a Wilders-led government due to his far-right policies. However, the scale of his victory may prompt reconsideration. The left-wing alliance under Frans Timmermans came in second with 25 seats, rejecting any collaboration with a Wilders-led government.

The third-placed VVD, a center-right liberal party led by Dilan Yesilgöz, and a new party formed by whistleblower MP Pieter Omtzigt in fourth, remain potential coalition partners. While Yesilgöz previously stated she would not serve in a Wilders-led cabinet, she did not rule out working with him. Omtzigt, initially hesitant, now expresses willingness to cooperate.

Wilders’ victory has garnered praise from nationalist and far-right leaders across Europe. He advocates for a referendum to leave the EU, known as “Nexit,” although this may face resistance from potential coalition partners.

During the campaign, Wilders softened his anti-Islam rhetoric, focusing on issues such as migration. He strategically deferred policies like banning mosques and Islamic schools. The campaign capitalized on dissatisfaction with the previous government’s collapse over asylum rules.

Migration emerged as a key theme, with Wilders vowing to address a “tsunami of asylum and immigration.” Net migration into the Netherlands surged to over 220,000, exacerbated by a shortage of 390,000 homes.

Despite the shock of Wilders’ victory, challenges lie ahead in forming a government, particularly due to his far-right stance. The international precedent suggests that excluding radical right-wing parties may diminish their influence.

In conclusion, Geert Wilders’ triumph in the Dutch general election has political implications for the country and echoes across Europe, with the formation of a coalition government presenting a complex task for the populist leader.

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Poland Halts Weapon Exports to Ukraine Amidst Grain Dispute

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One of Ukraine’s steadfast supporters, Poland, has declared that it will cease its weapon supplies to its neighboring country, Ukraine, citing a diplomatic dispute regarding Ukraine’s grain exports as the primary reason. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emphasized that Poland’s current focus is on bolstering its own defense capabilities with more modern weaponry.

Poland had already provided Ukraine with significant military assistance, including 320 Soviet-era tanks and 14 MiG-29 fighter jets. However, their willingness to continue such support has dwindled, coinciding with escalating tensions between the two nations.

The recent diplomatic rift was triggered when Poland, along with Hungary and Slovakia, extended a ban on Ukrainian grain imports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s comments at the United Nations, characterizing their actions as political theater, added fuel to the fire. Poland viewed these remarks as unjustified, given their longstanding support for Ukraine.

In his interview, Prime Minister Morawiecki underlined that while Poland remains committed to assisting Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression, it could not allow its own markets to be destabilized by Ukrainian grain imports. He pointed out that Poland was already replacing its depleted military hardware, which had been significantly reduced through transfers to Ukraine, with modern Western-produced equipment.

While arms exports to Ukraine will not cease entirely, only previously agreed deliveries of ammunition and armaments, including those from existing contracts with Ukraine, will be fulfilled. This decision reflects Poland’s commitment to its own security and stability, while the future of its assistance to Ukraine remains uncertain.

The ongoing grain dispute arises from Ukraine’s need to find alternative overland routes for grain exports due to Russia’s full-scale invasion, which nearly closed the main Black Sea shipping lanes. Consequently, large quantities of grain flowed into Central Europe, leading the European Union to temporarily ban grain imports into several countries. Despite the EU lifting the ban, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have maintained it, leading to Ukraine’s WTO lawsuits against these nations. Poland has signaled its intention to uphold the ban, while also hinting at the possibility of expanding the list of banned products should Ukraine escalate the grain dispute. However, diplomatic channels remain open, with discussions ongoing to seek a mutually beneficial solution.

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