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Before the EU election, Poland’s PM issued a dire warning: “Vote or face war.”

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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urges voters to avoid war by voting in the European elections. Emphasizing security and the threat of Russian aggression, Tusk’s Civic Coalition stresses the importance of a united EU stance against Moscow, particularly with pro-Russian parties gaining traction in central Europe.

Poles, historically and geographically wary of Russia, are being urged to vote to protect themselves. Northern Poland shares a heavily monitored 230km (142 miles) border with Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland has tightened security and plans to further reinforce the border with a 10-billion-zloty (£1.992bn) “Shield East” project, coordinated with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

While Tusk’s opponents, the Law and Justice party (PiS), focus on issues like the EU’s migration deal and the Green Deal, they also recognize the Russian threat, having invested heavily in defense during their governance. This election sees PiS candidate Karol Karski drawing attention with a campaign video of him symbolically stopping a Russian tank.

In schools, Polish children are learning survival skills, reflecting the national concern over the Russian threat. Captain Dominik Pijarski of the 6th Mazovian Brigade confirms that Poland is preparing for a real threat from Russia, with the entire nation learning lessons from the Ukraine invasion.

However, not all Poles unconditionally support Ukraine. In rural areas, farmers protest against the EU Green Deal and competition from Ukrainian farmers who benefit from tariff-free exports and can use banned chemicals, leading to higher productivity. These farmers support Ukraine militarily but feel the economic impact is unfair.

The European election has not generated much excitement, with traditionally lower turnout compared to national votes. However, Tusk’s final rally in Warsaw will likely focus on security, reiterating the ongoing risk of living next to Russia and the need for European vigilance.

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Russia blamed for GPS interference affecting flights in Europe

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Russia has been increasingly disrupting satellite navigation systems, particularly in regions where its military activity is high, such as the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean. This disruption has affected thousands of civilian flights, with incidents reported by pilots and airlines. Finnair, for instance, had to suspend flights to Tartu, Estonia, due to GPS interference.

While GPS disruption is mainly a nuisance and not an immediate safety threat during flight, it can still pose risks, especially for airports relying solely on GPS navigation like Tartu. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has noted a significant increase in incidents, with blame squarely placed on Russia by Baltic state officials and online investigators.

The disruption includes jamming GPS signals and spoofing legitimate ones, causing confusion about location. Experts suggest Russia’s motives range from offensive to defensive, testing its ability to immobilize Europe while protecting itself from potential attacks. While Russia has its own navigation system (GLONASS), the interference still poses risks due to society’s heavy reliance on precise GPS signals.

Ultimately, while aircraft may have backup systems, interference with GPS signals disrupts efficiency and safety, requiring a reliance on older, less familiar procedures. There’s concern that if the interference continues, it could lead to more serious consequences.

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Russia places Estonia’s prime minister on wanted list

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Russian authorities have initiated criminal proceedings against Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, alleging political motivations behind the charges. Alongside Kallas, Estonian Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys were accused of damaging or destroying Soviet monuments dedicated to Soviet soldiers, according to Russia’s state-run Tass news agency. Despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirming the charges, the timing of the alleged offense remains unspecified. By Wednesday, officials from all three Baltic states were included on Russia’s wanted list.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kallas declared Estonia’s intention to remove all Soviet monuments from public spaces. This decision, seen as a response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, likely exacerbated tensions between Estonia and Russia, culminating in the recent legal actions against Kallas and other Baltic officials.

Kallas, seemingly the first head of state placed on the Russian Interior Ministry’s wanted list since the invasion began, responded defiantly on social media. She viewed the move as unsurprising and a testament to her support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Kallas vowed to continue backing Ukraine despite Kremlin attempts to silence her.

Latvia and Lithuania reacted strongly to Russia’s actions, summoning their respective Russian ambassadors and condemning the charges as politically motivated. Estonia also summoned Russia’s charges d’affaires in response.

Estonia, having experienced Soviet occupation, joined the European Union and NATO in 2004. NATO’s expansion to Russia’s border has long unsettled Russian President Vladimir Putin, who perceives the alliance as a threat to Russia’s security. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns in Estonia, prompting efforts to bolster defense measures and support for Ukraine.

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned of Russia potentially increasing troop numbers on its borders with the Baltic countries and Finland, a NATO member since last year. Estonian officials stressed the importance of collective defense and increased spending on defense, with Estonia’s defense budget set to exceed 3% of GDP for the first time this year. In his annual foreign policy speech, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna strongly condemned Russian aggression and affirmed support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need to resist aggression and uphold democratic values.

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Putin denies Russia behind Finland gas pipeline damage

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Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed accusations that Russia was responsible for the recent damage to the Baltic-connector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. Finnish officials, however, suspect external interference and possible Russian involvement.

Estonia’s Defense Minister also suggested that the damage was caused by more than just normal means. Despite this, President Putin denied any knowledge of the pipeline’s existence and suggested that the blame could lie with an anchor or seismic activity.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed solidarity with Estonia and Finland, warning of a united response if the damage is proven to be deliberate. Finnish authorities confirmed that the damage was not due to regular usage or pressure changes and emphasized that the country’s energy security remains intact due to alternative gas sources. The incident has reignited concerns about energy security after previous Nord Stream pipeline incidents.

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Ukraine war: Nato watches Russian ‘Zombies’ in Estonia

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In a small crew room near the runway of Estonia’s Amari airbase, members of the Quick Reaction Force for Nato’s Baltic Air Policing mission are gathered. They were watching old episodes of Friends when they receive an alert about a suspicious Russian aircraft, referred to as a “Zombie.” The crew quickly moves to the Operations Room where they analyze incoming data on screens and digital maps marked as “Nato Secret.”

The RAF’s IX Squadron of Typhoon fighter jets, based at Amari airbase, has taken over the mission from Germany’s Richthofen Squadron. Nato’s focus has shifted to securing its eastern borders due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The goal is to deter Russia from further invasions, particularly targeting Nato countries like the Baltic states or Poland.

A “Zombie” aircraft refers to a Russian plane that is not following standard procedures, such as filing a flight plan, communicating with air traffic control, or responding to communication attempts. The Typhoon pilots scramble to their aircraft whenever an alarm sounds, responding as if it were a real threat. They quickly get airborne and intercept the aircraft.

The Baltic Sea is bordered by seven Nato members, soon to be eight with Finland’s inclusion. However, Russia still maintains strategic positions in the Baltic region, with St Petersburg and the exclave of Kaliningrad. Russian aircraft frequently fly between these bases, keeping Nato forces on high alert.

When intercepting the Russian aircraft, the Typhoon pilots identify them, receive further instructions from the Operations Center, and respond accordingly. While the Rules of Engagement are classified, the pilots often take photographs of the intercepted aircraft as they escort them past Nato airspace.

The RAF pilots have conducted eight interception missions, all against Russian aircraft. The illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia has heightened the importance of Baltic air policing. Efforts are also being made to bolster ground forces in the region to deter potential Russian aggression.

Nato’s “enhanced forward presence” policy includes a multinational Battle Group based in northern Estonia. It consists of British-led forces, including main battle tanks, rocket systems, helicopters, and French Foreign Legionnaires. This presence acts as a deterrent, with the hope of avoiding escalation.

However, the current forces in place are relatively small compared to Russia’s capabilities. Nato acknowledges that its presence in Estonia would act as a “tripwire,” triggering rapid reinforcement if Russian forces were to advance westward. If necessary, Nato forces would move east and engage in combat with Russia.

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