A proposed reform of Italy’s electoral system could significantly boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s chances of securing a second term, according to new studies. The ruling centre-right coalition has agreed to shift to a fully proportional voting system that includes a seat bonus for any coalition winning more than 40% of the vote. The measure, which still requires parliamentary approval, is designed to ensure governing stability but has drawn sharp criticism from the opposition.

Analysis by polling firm YouTrend suggests that under the current mixed system, neither the centre-right nor the left would likely win an outright majority, raising the prospect of a hung parliament. However, under the proposed rules, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and its allies — the League and Forza Italia — would secure a clear majority. The winning coalition would receive a 70-seat bonus in the 400-member lower house and 35 extra seats in the 200-member Senate, capped at 60% of total seats.

The opposition Democratic Party has denounced the reform as an attempt to tilt the system in favour of the government, while Meloni’s allies argue it would prevent political gridlock after the 2027 election. A separate poll indicated the centre-right currently leads by about four percentage points, enough under the new rules to translate a narrow vote advantage into a commanding parliamentary majority.

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