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Germany’s economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product rising by 0.3%, surpassing forecasts of 0.2%. The growth was mainly driven by stronger household consumption, increased government spending, and a rise in exports. However, the previous quarter’s growth was revised slightly downward, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Despite this positive start to the year, Europe’s largest economy continues to face challenges, including high energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions and increased competition from China. Inflation also climbed to 2.9% in April due to rising energy prices, prompting the German government to lower its annual growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%.

Meanwhile, unemployment rose more sharply than expected, exceeding the 3 million mark in April. The number of jobless increased by 20,000 to 3.006 million, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.4%. Labour officials warned that there are still no clear signs of recovery in the job market, with hiring demand also showing signs of weakening.

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A slight majority of voters in Switzerland are backing a proposal to cap the nation’s population at 10 million, according to a recent opinion poll. The initiative, supported by the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), will be put to a nationwide referendum on June 14, with support rising compared to earlier surveys.

The Swiss government has opposed the proposal, warning it could harm economic growth and strain relations with the European Union. Officials argue that limiting population growth could restrict the labor market and undermine existing agreements, particularly the freedom of movement arrangement with the EU.

However, increasing concerns over rapid population growth, infrastructure pressure, and the rising share of foreign residents have driven support for the initiative. With Switzerland’s population already exceeding 9 million, the proposal aims to impose a long-term cap by 2050, reflecting ongoing debates about immigration, economic ties, and national sovereignty.

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Germany’s central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, said the country’s economy likely recorded modest growth in the first quarter, supported by solid industrial output and resilient services activity. Despite weakening consumer confidence toward the end of the quarter, exports and business-related services helped sustain overall momentum.

However, the outlook for the second quarter remains fragile as the ongoing Iran conflict begins to weigh more heavily on Europe’s largest economy. The war has pushed up energy prices, disrupted supply chains, and increased uncertainty, all of which are expected to dampen growth. The Bundesbank cautioned that only slight expansion is likely in the near term, even as government spending aims to support recovery.

Rising fuel costs have already eroded household purchasing power, weakening private consumption further. In addition, softer global demand and cautious business sentiment are expected to impact exports and investment. While fiscal measures may provide some support, escalating geopolitical risks continue to pose significant challenges to Germany’s economic outlook.

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The government of France has announced plans to offset the financial impact of the ongoing Iran crisis by freezing public spending. Rising energy prices and increased borrowing costs linked to the crisis are expected to cost the country between €4 billion and €6 billion. Authorities say the spending freeze will match these projected losses, helping stabilize public finances.

Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that higher bond yields alone could add €3.6 billion to France’s borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the government is preparing targeted support measures to help households cope with surging energy prices. These measures are expected to prioritize workers who rely heavily on fuel, reflecting growing concerns over the cost-of-living impact.

Despite the planned response, the government faces mounting political pressure for broader relief measures. While some groups are calling for fuel tax cuts, others are pushing for caps on energy prices. However, with one of the largest budget deficits in the eurozone, officials insist that any support must remain limited and carefully targeted to avoid further straining public finances.

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Rumen Radev has secured a sweeping victory in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, paving the way to lead the country’s first single-party government in nearly 30 years. The former president capitalised on widespread public frustration with corruption, political instability, and rising living costs, following years of repeated elections and fragile coalitions.

Radev, a former fighter pilot often viewed as sympathetic to Russia, positioned himself as an anti-establishment figure promising reform. His win also dealt a major blow to traditional parties, including those led by Boyko Borissov. Despite his rhetoric and past criticism of EU policies, analysts believe he is unlikely to risk jeopardising crucial European Union funding or dramatically shift Bulgaria’s geopolitical alignment.

The new government faces significant domestic challenges, including tackling corruption, stabilising the economy, and restoring public trust in institutions. While some voters remain concerned about his perceived pro-Russian stance, many see his decisive mandate as an opportunity to bring stability after years of political turmoil.

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Hungary is set for a major political shift after Péter Magyar and his Tisza party secured a sweeping victory, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. Winning 52% of the vote and a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Magyar has moved quickly to accelerate the transition of power, with plans for parliament to convene in early May. His government is already outlining reforms, including curbing media influence and introducing term limits that could block Orbán from returning to office.

Orbán, who finally addressed the defeat days later, described it as “the end of an era” and accepted responsibility, though he offered little reflection on campaign failures. His Fidesz party suffered a dramatic drop in representation and now faces internal uncertainty, with no clear successor emerging. The loss has exposed growing dissatisfaction among voters, especially younger generations, and highlighted the challenges of maintaining support after years in power.

Magyar’s incoming administration is expected to act swiftly on anti-corruption measures, economic recovery, and restoring democratic institutions. Priorities include preventing capital flight, preserving evidence of alleged wrongdoing, and unlocking withheld EU funds by meeting governance standards. With Hungary’s economy struggling, the new leadership faces pressure to deliver rapid reforms while redefining the country’s direction both domestically and within Europe.

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France’s corporate elite is increasingly engaging with Marine Le Pen and her National Rally as the party gains momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election. A recent dinner in Paris with top executives, including Bernard Arnault, highlighted growing efforts by business leaders to better understand—and potentially influence—the party’s economic agenda.

The meeting exposed clear divisions, particularly over Le Pen’s eurosceptic stance and her plans to reverse pension reforms. While she presented herself as pro-business, executives reportedly found her policy proposals lacking in detail, especially on trade and taxation. Despite past reluctance, major companies now see engagement as necessary given the party’s rising electoral prospects.

Business groups, including Medef, say dialogue does not imply support but reflects a need to prepare for possible political change. However, some executives warn that engaging with the far right risks legitimising a party whose economic plans remain unclear. Both sides appear to be testing boundaries, as companies seek to shape policy while the National Rally works to reassure markets.

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Italy is set to lower its economic growth forecasts as rising energy prices continue to pressure its economy, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said. The government is expected to trim this year’s GDP growth estimate to around 0.5%–0.6%, down from 0.7%, while next year’s outlook may also be reduced slightly. The slowdown is largely attributed to external and temporary factors, particularly the ongoing energy crisis.

The weaker growth outlook complicates Italy’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit below the European Union’s 3% threshold. With the deficit already projected at 3.1% in 2025, slower expansion could limit fiscal room and make it harder to meet agreed targets. Despite these challenges, officials maintain that recent data does not indicate any structural weakness in the economy.

Italy has urged the European Union to consider temporarily easing its budget rules if geopolitical tensions, especially involving Iran, worsen further. While existing mechanisms allow flexibility during severe downturns, current conditions do not yet meet that threshold. Meanwhile, Italy remains under EU scrutiny for its deficit, restricting its ability to introduce major relief measures.

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Inflation increased to at least 2.5% across four German states in March, driven largely by rising energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, annual inflation climbed to 2.7% from 1.8% in February. Similar increases were recorded in Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Lower Saxony, signalling a likely nationwide rise in inflation figures expected later in the day.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predict Germany’s harmonised inflation rate will reach 2.8% in March, up from 2.0% the previous month. Analysts warn that while energy costs are currently the main driver, broader price increases may follow. Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said higher transport costs and potential fertiliser shortages could push food prices higher, with inflation possibly exceeding 3% if the conflict continues.

A survey by the Ifo institute showed German companies increasingly expect to raise prices due to rising production and transport expenses. The data comes ahead of eurozone inflation figures, with markets anticipating further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank. Investors now expect up to three interest rate hikes this year as policymakers respond to mounting inflation pressures.

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European retailers are warning of rising prices and weakening consumer demand as the ongoing Middle East conflict drives up energy and transportation costs. Companies across the sector say prolonged disruption could fuel inflation, with oil prices already climbing above $100 per barrel and increasing pressure on global supply chains.

Major retailers including H&M and Next have signalled potential price increases in the coming months. While short-term hikes may remain modest, executives caution that prolonged conflict could push prices significantly higher, particularly as manufacturing and freight costs rise. Firms are relying on flexible supply chains to manage uncertainty but acknowledge growing risks.

At the same time, consumer confidence across Europe is weakening, with falling retail sales and declining sentiment in countries such as the UK, Germany, and Italy. Retailers like Co-op warn that households are becoming more cautious amid rising living costs, and further escalation of the conflict could intensify inflationary pressures, dampening spending and slowing economic growth.

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