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Macron’s Election Gamble: The Fate of French Democracy at Stake

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Two neighboring countries are approaching unexpected elections, with both governments expected to fall. Political tensions have strained relationships among families and friends. Despite significant issues in the UK election, the stakes are higher in France, where not just a government or leader is at risk, but the political system itself. Unlike the UK, which is at the end of a political cycle and where calling an early election was rational for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, France faces uncertainty.

President Macron called a snap election after a significant defeat by the far right in the European parliament elections. His aim was to regain a centrist majority in the National Assembly, but polls indicate the far-right National Rally (RN) remains ahead, with a left-wing alliance, led by France Unbowed (LFI), potentially coming second. The likely outcomes are either an RN majority or a hung parliament, both of which pose significant risks: a sovereign debt crisis, street violence, and institutional collapse.

Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez points out that France’s Fifth Republic was designed to handle crises, but the current instability and the president’s own confusion could lead to a breakdown of institutions. Across France, there is an awareness of the country’s precarious situation.

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, could become the next Prime Minister, adding to the political tension. Macron’s invocation of potential “civil war” and his attempt to use fear to drive voters towards the center is seen as dangerous and could incite hate and violence. The government is preparing for possible violent protests during the election rounds on June 30 and July 7. The far-left LFI’s support base in immigrant-heavy areas and its stance on Gaza further complicate matters.

Political instability could also affect the upcoming Olympic Games, which begin shortly after the election. Baverez draws a parallel between France’s current situation and the populist moments in the US and UK a decade ago, suggesting that France’s institutions and the euro previously shielded it from such upheaval. However, with the traditional method of managing social peace through public debt no longer viable, France now faces its own populist challenge.

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Georgia parliament overturns veto on foreign agents law

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Georgia’s MPs have overturned a presidential veto on the controversial “transparency on foreign influence” bill, commonly referred to as the “foreign agents law,” after several weeks of protests in Tbilisi. The law mandates that media and NGOs receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad must register as “organisations acting in the interest of a foreign power,” undergo stringent audits, or face heavy fines. The vote in a plenary session on Tuesday saw 84 MPs, primarily from the governing Georgian Dream party, in favor, with four votes against and the opposition abstaining.

Thousands of Georgians protested outside parliament, waving Georgian and EU flags. The law, initially passed on May 14 and then vetoed by pro-Western President Salome Zourabishvili, is set to take effect in 60 days. The Georgian government argues that the law will enhance transparency and protect against foreign interference. However, opponents, calling it the “Russian law” due to its similarity to existing Russian legislation, believe it aims to suppress dissent ahead of October’s parliamentary elections.

The EU expressed deep regret over the parliament’s decision, warning that the bill could hinder Georgia’s progress within the bloc. Georgia achieved candidate country status in December 2023. Many NGOs have declared they will not comply with the legislation, describing it as “insulting” and “factually incorrect.”

As MPs debated the bill, protesters gathered outside parliament under heavy police presence. Following the vote, demonstrators shouted “slaves!” and “Russians!” Police have frequently used force against protesters, with reports of beatings and intimidation. Despite this, many demonstrators, predominantly young, continue to protest, viewing their future as dependent on aligning with Europe.

Observers believe the passing of the foreign agents law has become crucial for the survival of Georgian Dream, alienating many traditional partners. The US joined the EU in warning of repercussions, with the US State Department announcing travel restrictions on those undermining democracy in Georgia and their families. However, authorities dismissed these warnings, with Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze asserting that there would be no compromise against national interests.

With limited options left to halt the bill, President Zourabishvili presented a new charter on Monday to move Georgia towards Europe, calling for a new political reality, different elections, and significant reforms to depoliticize the justice system and security services. She invited all opposition parties to sign the charter by June 1 and unite for the parliamentary elections in October.

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Suspect charged with attempted murder of Slovak PM Fico

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A 71-year-old man from Levice has been implicated in the attempted murder of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was severely injured in a shooting incident. The suspect, though not officially named, has been widely identified by Slovak reports. If convicted, he could potentially face life imprisonment.

The assailant acted alone, according to Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok, who stated that the suspect had participated in anti-government protests and was discontented with the outcome of the recent presidential election, won by Peter Pellegrini, an ally of Fico.

In the brazen daylight attack, Fico was shot five times at close range, sustaining serious injuries to his stomach and arm. His security detail was caught off guard, and Fico was swiftly taken to a hospital for emergency treatment. Despite the severity of his condition, Fico’s status has stabilized, though he remains in intensive care.

The alleged perpetrator is described as a writer and political activist, with a circulated video purportedly featuring him expressing grievances against the government’s policies, particularly regarding state media. However, the authenticity of the video and its connection to the detained suspect remain unverified.

The shooting has been condemned by Slovak politicians as an assault on democracy, prompting calls for unity and calm. Outgoing President Zuzana Caputova urged political leaders to convene and address the escalating tensions, while President-elect Peter Pellegrini called for a suspension of campaigning ahead of European Parliament elections.

The attack occurred amid parliamentary discussions concerning the government’s proposal to dissolve Slovakia’s public broadcaster RTVS, a move that has sparked widespread public protests in recent weeks. Some officials have attributed the shooting to heightened political rhetoric and hostility perpetuated by both media and opposition parties.

In response to the incident, Deputy Prime Minister Taraba and Interior Minister Estok criticized the opposition and media for allegedly fueling animosity, with concerns raised about the safety of journalists and NGOs in Slovakia.

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Slovakia PM Robert Fico not in life-threatening condition – deputy PM

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico underwent surgery after sustaining multiple gunshot wounds during an attack in Handlova. Initially in critical condition, his health has since stabilized. The incident, deemed politically motivated, has drawn widespread condemnation and raised concerns about democratic stability. Despite the suspect’s detention, the motive behind the shooting remains uncertain.

Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba suggested that false narratives propagated by opposition parties may have fueled the attack, echoing previous concerns expressed by Fico about the potential consequences of such rhetoric. The shooting underscores simmering political tensions within Slovakia, sparking debates about the role of inflammatory discourse in shaping the country’s political climate.

The incident has ignited discussions about the broader implications of divisive language in Slovakian society. President Zuzana Caputova highlighted the serious ramifications of such rhetoric, emphasizing its potential to incite violence. The shooting serves as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by polarizing narratives and underscores the need for constructive dialogue and unity in the face of political differences.

Fico, known for his controversial policies, including calls to end military aid to Ukraine and efforts to abolish the public broadcaster RTVS, has faced significant opposition both domestically and within the EU since returning to power. The attack on him amplifies existing concerns about political stability and underscores the challenges facing Slovakian democracy in navigating polarized political landscapes.

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EU: Bosnia and Herzegovina to begin talks to join bloc

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Bosnia and Herzegovina is set to begin negotiations for EU membership, marking a significant milestone eight years after the formal application was submitted. Following a recommendation from the European Commission last week, EU leaders have approved the initiation of talks. European Council President Charles Michel extended congratulations to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s leaders, affirming their place within the European family. He emphasized the importance of continued efforts for progress, a sentiment echoed by Borjana Krišto, Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who expressed gratitude for achieving the necessary compliance with EU requirements.

The approval for Bosnia’s EU talks has been welcomed as a positive development by leaders across Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hailed it as a good message for the entire region, while Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković described it as a historic day for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The road to EU membership has been long for Bosnia, with the country formally obtaining candidate status in 2022 after applying for membership in 2016. In the past year, Bosnia has made strides in passing laws aligned with EU priorities, particularly focusing on areas such as democracy, the rule of law, fundamental rights, and public administration reform.

Despite progress, Bosnia remains ethnically and politically divided, a legacy of the 1992-95 war. Further economic and democratic reforms will be necessary before formal EU accession can occur.

The EU’s commitment to the Western Balkans has been underscored by recent events, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine. Other countries in the region, including Albania, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine, are also at various stages of the EU application process.

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Russia election 2024: Voting begins in election Putin is bound to win

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Voting has commenced in Russia’s presidential election, with Vladimir Putin poised to secure another six-year term in office without any significant opposition. The election spans three days, from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Kaliningrad exclave, though the outcome is a foregone conclusion due to the absence of credible challengers.

Putin’s decision to run for a fifth term was portrayed as spontaneous, yet the Kremlin’s media apparatus swiftly mobilized to bolster his candidacy, portraying him as an indispensable national leader. Having already held power longer than any Russian leader since Stalin, Putin maneuvered to reset term limits, allowing him to potentially extend his rule until 2030.

Despite efforts to maintain a facade of legitimacy, the electoral process lacks genuine competition. Turnout is emphasized to showcase Putin’s popular support, though previous elections have been marred by irregularities. The limited opposition candidates on the ballot pose no real threat to Putin’s reign.

Televised debates excluded Putin, who instead engaged in choreographed interactions with various groups to bolster his image as a man of the people. His recent state-of-the-nation address primarily addressed domestic concerns, signaling awareness of pressing issues like poverty and healthcare failures, which remain unsolved despite his lengthy tenure.

The election, expected to be neither free nor fair, underscores Putin’s enduring dominance. The only notable challenge comes from Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who has urged supporters to demonstrate their presence at polling stations, although the impact is largely symbolic.

Ultimately, Putin’s victory is inevitable, and the illusion of democracy will persist for another six years.

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Alexei Navalny: Putin critic’s mother says she has been shown his body

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Lyudmila Navalnaya, the mother of Alexei Navalny, stated in a video that she was shown her son’s body by Russian authorities, but they are pressuring her to agree to a “secret” burial. She reported signing a death certificate at a morgue. Navalny’s press secretary mentioned a medical report indicating natural causes, while his widow believes he was killed by Russian authorities. Navalnaya expressed frustration at officials refusing to hand over her son’s body and alleged blackmail, stating that they are dictating conditions for the burial. She demanded the return of Navalny’s body and claimed threats from authorities.

Navalnaya met with US President Joe Biden along with Navalny’s widow and daughter in San Francisco. Biden praised Navalny’s courage and anti-corruption efforts, announcing forthcoming sanctions on Russia. Navalny died in a penal colony on February 16, purportedly after falling ill during a walk, though his widow accuses Putin of ordering his killing. The Kremlin denies involvement, dismissing Western reactions as “hysterical.”

Analysts suggest that showing Navalnaya the body aims to negotiate a non-politicized funeral. Navalny was previously poisoned with Novichok in 2020, survived after treatment in Germany, then imprisoned upon returning to Russia in 2021. Russian authorities have aggressively cracked down on attempts to commemorate Navalny’s death, detaining hundreds and removing makeshift memorials.

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Spanish Church sexual abuse affected 200,000 children, commission finds

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According to a recent report by Spain’s ombudsman, more than 200,000 children have reportedly suffered sexual abuse at the hands of Catholic clergy in Spain. The ombudsman, Angel Gabilondo, expressed deep concern over the “devastating impact” this has had on the victims. He criticized the Church for its silence and attempts to conceal or deny the abuse, emphasizing that this silence has facilitated such atrocities.

The comprehensive 700-page report, commissioned by Spain’s Congress last year, was based on a survey of 800,000 members of the public. The findings indicated that approximately 0.6% of the adult population, roughly 39 million people, reported experiencing sexual abuse as children by clergy members. When allegations of abuse by lay individuals in Church-run institutions were included, this percentage rose to 1.13%, accounting for over 400,000 people.

Mr. Gabilondo urged caution in interpreting these numbers and highlighted the emotional toll detailed in the statements of more than 487 abuse survivors. The report called for urgent action to address the suffering that has long been concealed by a pervasive culture of silence.

In response to these findings, the ombudsman proposed the establishment of a state-funded compensation program for victims of abuse. The investigation was initiated following an earlier inquiry by the El Pais newspaper in 2018, which had already cataloged over 1,000 alleged cases of abuse. Although the Church partially cooperated with the commission, Mr. Gabilondo noted their lack of active engagement and the resistance of certain bishops in collaborating with the inquiry.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez hailed the report as a “milestone” in the nation’s democracy, stressing that it has brought to light a reality that had long been known but not openly discussed.

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Poland election: Tusk’s opposition eyes power after pivotal vote

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In Poland’s recent general election, the opposition parties have gathered enough votes to remove the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party from power. The National Election Commission confirmed PiS’s victory with 35.38% of the vote, surpassing the centrist opposition Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk, which secured 30.7%.

Donald Tusk, with the support of the center-right Third Way and New Left parties, is likely to form a broad coalition, thus ending PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s eight-year rule. With 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, Mr. Tusk’s coalition would exceed the 231-seat threshold required for a majority.

Despite PiS losing 41 seats compared to the last election, their potential coalition with the far-right Confederation party would still fall short by 19 seats. The opposition had alerted Poles that this election was crucial in safeguarding democracy. Voter turnout was reported at 74.38%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989.

Celebrations erupted in Warsaw, with Mr. Tusk addressing enthusiastic supporters, emphasizing that Poland and democracy had emerged victorious. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski praised the power of civil society, highlighting the significant voter participation in the capital.

Poland’s stock market surged more than 6%, and the Zloty, its currency, also strengthened on the anticipation of a new government. International observers noted that although parties were allowed to campaign freely, PiS had an advantage due to biased state media coverage and the misuse of public funds.

PiS’s tenure has been characterized by an emphasis on Catholic family values, increases in the minimum wage, and enhancements in child support and pensioner payments. It also imposed a near-total ban on abortion in 2021 and faced criticism for politicizing the judiciary.

Mr. Tusk has pledged to improve relations with the EU and unlock €36bn of EU Covid pandemic recovery funds, frozen due to disputes over PiS’s judicial reforms. His coalition also aims to liberalize abortion laws.

Poland’s strong support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion and its acceptance of a million refugees are expected to continue under the new government. However, the process of forming a new government might extend until December, following President Andrzej Duda’s announcement that the winning party would be given the first opportunity to form a coalition, adhering to Polish tradition.

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Poland election: Bitter campaign splits country ahead of key vote

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In the old Lenin shipyard in Gdansk, where striking workers were once the catalyst for major political change, young Poles now debate how to protect democracy in their country.

They worry that the rights and freedoms won by the Solidarity movement over three decades ago are at risk, as the ruling right-wing Law and Justice party, or PiS, campaigns to secure a record third term in office.

“It’s a very important election. We’re deciding whether we’re going back to being a democratic country,” was student activist Julia Landowska’s stark take on this weekend’s vote.

“This is our last call, to go to the election and fight for a better future in Poland.”

The event she helped organise was held under the slogan In My Day, Things Will Be Better.

A mixture of discussions and live music topped off with a silent disco, it was designed to encourage reluctant younger voters to the polls.

The activist’s worries are echoed by others in Gdansk, who point to the shrinking independence of the courts under a PiS government and backsliding on women’s rights, including a near-total ban on abortion.

There is also concern about media freedom – publicly-funded TV becoming a government mouthpiece – as well as acrimonious wrangling with Brussels on issues from judicial reform to migration.

That is why many Poles are now hailing the election on 15 October as the most important since 1989, when Solidarity candidates swept the board in the first partially-free vote since communist rule.

Freedom City The story of Poland’s struggle for freedom dominates the northern port city of Gdansk.

There is a Solidarity museum in the shipyard once occupied by strikers and billboards through the city centre that recount the momentous changes brought by their protest, led by an electrician named Lech Walesa.

This year, his son is running for re-election.

“We have to make sure we win, to reform all that has been destroyed in eight years,” Jaroslaw Walesa explained, referring to the two terms PiS have held office so far.Representing the opposition Civil Coalition, like fellow Gdansk-native and party leader Donald Tusk, he is most worried by Poland’s increasingly antagonistic relations with the EU.

Like Brussels, he is also concerned about the politicisation of Polish courts.

“If you look at what has been done to our democracy, we took a huge step backwards. That’s definitely not what my father fought for,” Mr Walesa told the BBC this week, wandering the paths of the handsome Oliwki park, greeting voters with leaflets and a promise of change.

The 1989 slogan – Don’t sleep, or they’ll outvote you! – has been resurrected in Gdansk for this election, all part of pitching it as another critical moment for Polish democracy.

The city is expected to vote solidly for the opposition, as usual.

But opinion polls put the governing Law and Justice Party ahead nationwide, although probably without a big enough majority to form a government.

So the last-minute battle for votes is intense.

PiS and Security In the town of Elblag, a short drive from Gdansk, campaigners spent Saturday canvassing for the governing party at a food market.

Between piles of potatoes and giant pumpkins, they dished out bags printed with the PiS logo and leaflets promoting the city’s main candidate, who didn’t show up.

“PiS have a good programme for us young people and for my children. I have twins and they’ve got a good programme for our future,” party activist Monica explained, referring to the 500 zloty (£95) monthly child benefit the government now pays.

It is set to rise to 800 next year if PiS win.

“In Poland, this amount can solve many things,” her husband added.Neither accepted the opposition’s fears for the future of democracy in Poland. “Democracy is good for us,” Monica said – and she wants to stay in the EU.

The pair both talked about security, including the government’s slogan that it is “protecting the future of Poles”.

“We’re not ready to accept immigrants. Muslims,” Monica clarified, adding that Poland had already taken in “a lot of Ukrainians”, meaning those who came in 2022 as refugees.

The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is nearby and there is a new barbed-wire fence along its entire length.

The activists’ pro-government message was not universally welcomed by marketgoers, even though the Elblag regional vote was strongly pro-PiS at the last election.

Several shoppers thrust the free bags back when they realised which party logo was printed on them. Others retorted that PiS had been so good for Poland that their children had moved abroad for better opportunities.

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