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Baltic worries about Russia’s proposal to redraw sea borders

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Calls for calm have been issued in Finland and the Baltic states following a draft Russian decree proposing border revisions in the Baltic Sea. Latvia is seeking clarification, while Lithuania accuses the Kremlin of using the decree as an intimidation tactic. Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that political leaders are monitoring the situation and Finland will respond calmly and factually.

The draft, issued by Russia’s defense ministry, suggested altering sea borders around Russian islands in the Gulf of Finland and the exclave of Kaliningrad. Initially reported by Russia’s Tass news agency, the draft aimed to redraw Soviet-era borders from January 1985. It was unclear if Finnish or Lithuanian waters near Kaliningrad would be affected, but the proposal included the eastern Gulf of Finland, islands near the Finnish coast, and areas around Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in Kaliningrad.

As members of the EU and NATO, Finland and the Baltic states have the alliance’s commitment to defend their borders. Finland’s defense and foreign committees convened emergency meetings, with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stating there is no immediate cause for alarm.

The Russian proposals were subsequently removed from public view with a “draft deleted” notice. A Russian source later confirmed no plans to alter territorial waters in the Baltic. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov directed questions to the defense ministry, noting the political landscape had changed since the 1980s and emphasizing the heightened confrontation in the Baltic region.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs suggested Russia’s approach was typical: probing reactions and retreating if met with resistance. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described the draft as an escalation against NATO and the EU, advocating a strong response.

Simultaneously, Sweden’s armed forces chief, Gen Micael Byden, warned of Putin’s ambitions to control the Baltic Sea. Byden stressed the importance of keeping the Baltic Sea out of Putin’s control to maintain peace and stability. Sweden, a NATO member since March, has reinforced its military presence on the Baltic island of Gotland, which Gen Byden believes Russia has targeted.

In response to potential migration issues, Finland, which joined NATO last year, plans to prevent large-scale asylum seeker crossings from Russia. Helsinki fears Russia might exploit migration, but the UN refugee agency warns the draft law could lead to harmful pushbacks of legitimate asylum seekers, risking severe injuries, family separations, and deaths, according to UNHCR’s Philippe Leclerc.

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Russia blamed for GPS interference affecting flights in Europe

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Russia has been increasingly disrupting satellite navigation systems, particularly in regions where its military activity is high, such as the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean. This disruption has affected thousands of civilian flights, with incidents reported by pilots and airlines. Finnair, for instance, had to suspend flights to Tartu, Estonia, due to GPS interference.

While GPS disruption is mainly a nuisance and not an immediate safety threat during flight, it can still pose risks, especially for airports relying solely on GPS navigation like Tartu. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has noted a significant increase in incidents, with blame squarely placed on Russia by Baltic state officials and online investigators.

The disruption includes jamming GPS signals and spoofing legitimate ones, causing confusion about location. Experts suggest Russia’s motives range from offensive to defensive, testing its ability to immobilize Europe while protecting itself from potential attacks. While Russia has its own navigation system (GLONASS), the interference still poses risks due to society’s heavy reliance on precise GPS signals.

Ultimately, while aircraft may have backup systems, interference with GPS signals disrupts efficiency and safety, requiring a reliance on older, less familiar procedures. There’s concern that if the interference continues, it could lead to more serious consequences.

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Russia places Estonia’s prime minister on wanted list

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Russian authorities have initiated criminal proceedings against Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, alleging political motivations behind the charges. Alongside Kallas, Estonian Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys were accused of damaging or destroying Soviet monuments dedicated to Soviet soldiers, according to Russia’s state-run Tass news agency. Despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirming the charges, the timing of the alleged offense remains unspecified. By Wednesday, officials from all three Baltic states were included on Russia’s wanted list.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kallas declared Estonia’s intention to remove all Soviet monuments from public spaces. This decision, seen as a response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, likely exacerbated tensions between Estonia and Russia, culminating in the recent legal actions against Kallas and other Baltic officials.

Kallas, seemingly the first head of state placed on the Russian Interior Ministry’s wanted list since the invasion began, responded defiantly on social media. She viewed the move as unsurprising and a testament to her support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Kallas vowed to continue backing Ukraine despite Kremlin attempts to silence her.

Latvia and Lithuania reacted strongly to Russia’s actions, summoning their respective Russian ambassadors and condemning the charges as politically motivated. Estonia also summoned Russia’s charges d’affaires in response.

Estonia, having experienced Soviet occupation, joined the European Union and NATO in 2004. NATO’s expansion to Russia’s border has long unsettled Russian President Vladimir Putin, who perceives the alliance as a threat to Russia’s security. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns in Estonia, prompting efforts to bolster defense measures and support for Ukraine.

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned of Russia potentially increasing troop numbers on its borders with the Baltic countries and Finland, a NATO member since last year. Estonian officials stressed the importance of collective defense and increased spending on defense, with Estonia’s defense budget set to exceed 3% of GDP for the first time this year. In his annual foreign policy speech, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna strongly condemned Russian aggression and affirmed support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need to resist aggression and uphold democratic values.

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