France Set for Modest Year-End Growth Despite Political Turmoil

France’s economy is poised to grow 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported mainly by strong industrial activity, according to the Bank of France’s latest business sentiment survey. Although slower than the 0.5% recorded in the previous quarter, the country remains on track to meet or potentially exceed the government’s full-year growth target of 0.8%, showing resilience despite ongoing political instability.

The central bank’s survey of around 8,500 companies between Nov. 26 and Dec. 3 revealed that industrial performance continues to surpass expectations for the sixth straight month. Production of computer, electronic and optical goods led the surge, while automotive and agro-food sectors also showed renewed strength, broadening the industrial recovery.

In contrast, services and construction have remained mostly flat heading into December. Businesses expect industrial activity to continue growing, though at a slower rate, while services and building activity are forecast to show little change. Despite the political challenges facing minority governments in passing budgets, the industrial sector remains the backbone of France’s near-term economic momentum.

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