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German business sentiment unexpectedly weakened in December, highlighting ongoing struggles in Europe’s largest economy, according to a survey released by the Ifo Institute. The Ifo business climate index fell to 87.6 from a slightly revised 88.0 in November, defying expectations of a rise to 88.2. Commenting on the data, Ifo survey head Klaus Wohlrabe said the year was ending without any positive surprises for the German economy.

Economists said the latest reading reinforces concerns that Germany remains stuck in stagnation after two years of contraction, with only modest growth expected. Analysts noted that the decline aligns with recent drops in purchasing managers’ indexes and indicates that a long-anticipated recovery has yet to take hold. Fiscal stimulus measures announced by the government have so far failed to deliver a meaningful boost, partly due to delays in infrastructure spending and rising costs linked to an ageing population.

Outlook indicators also pointed to growing pessimism among companies for the first half of 2026, while assessments of the current situation remained unchanged. Ifo President Clemens Fuest said the year ended without renewed confidence, and economists added that the lack of broad-based economic reforms has weighed on sentiment. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged further reforms, but businesses remain cautious as tangible policy action has yet to materialise.

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Germany’s consumer sentiment is set to improve modestly in December, supported by a rise in households’ willingness to spend on Christmas shopping despite lingering concerns about future income. The GfK and NIM consumer climate index edged up to -23.2 for December from -24.1, matching analysts’ expectations. A second month of stronger buying appetite and a small drop in saving intentions helped lift the overall mood.

However, retail expectations remain cautious. An Ifo Institute survey shows that around a quarter of retailers anticipate weak Christmas sales, with many entering the holiday season without high hopes. Only about 10% expect strong performance, while the retail association HDE forecasts €126.2 billion in November–December sales, indicating only modest growth.

Despite the slight pickup in spending sentiment, households remain wary about the year ahead. Economic expectations dipped again, reflecting concerns over Germany’s slow recovery, with GDP expected to grow just 0.2% in 2025 after two years of contraction. Toy retailers—usually strong performers in the Christmas season—are among the most pessimistic, with half expecting poorer results than last year.

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