Portugal Faces Likely Early Election as Confidence Vote Looms

Portugal’s parliament is set to vote on a motion of confidence in Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s minority centre-right government on Tuesday, with rejection all but certain. The move comes amid opposition criticism over Montenegro’s past involvement in a consultancy firm now run by his sons. With the centre-left Socialists and far-right Chega vowing to vote against him, a failed motion would push the government into a caretaker role, leaving President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to decide on a potential mid-May election.

Analysts predict another inconclusive result if fresh elections are held, as recent polls show little shift in voter preferences since the tight March 2024 election, which Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) won by just 1,500 votes. The AD currently holds 80 seats in the 230-seat parliament, narrowly ahead of the Socialists’ 78, raising concerns about continued political instability. Many voters, fatigued by frequent elections, express frustration over the lack of clear leadership.

Experts believe the only viable path to stability is a rare centrist alliance between Montenegro’s Social Democrats and the Socialists, a scenario last seen in 1983-1985. Political scientist Adelino Maltez warns that without such a pact, Portugal risks enduring further deadlock and uncertainty, with no single party securing a strong mandate.

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